Universal's Epic Universe Wish List & Speculation

[Stitch_101]

1. You can disagree with my sources, I was just asking you to provide your own. Hell, I'm OK with agreeing that my sources are wrong... just prove them wrong instead of just saying they are.
2. You have already admitted that your original math was wrong, so there was good reason for questioning your original post (and asking for you to provide a source to back it up). Now instead of saying FB2 needed to make $800-900 million to break even, we're just debating over a couple dozen million.
3. Break even isn't the end of the world. A company isn't super happy on operating at a break even point, but break even does mean that everyone at the studio got paid. The investors will want to see a return, but they shouldn't be expecting a massive return on investment, otherwise everyone would own a movie studio (or a piece of it with stock).
4. The 25% return from China does not consider any sorts of deals big companies make with the country. 25% is the minimum a company would receive, but likely this is higher for WB, Disney, Universal, etc.
5. The box office is only one part of the profit of a movie, then you have the merch, royalties (like theme parks maybe?), dvd, streaming, etc. Even if the movie broke even, you could rake in huge afterwards. Horror movies don't do well at the box office, so you could say they're all flops, but they end up making money back on streaming. Something like Fantastic Beasts has great merch potential, and in this case, the movie itself is essentially a commercial for the product.

Anywho...

EU will not be judged on the box office of FB2, though it may be judged on the box office for FB3 (which is slated for Nov 2021). I'm hoping WB+JK realize where they went wrong with FB2 and fix it for the next one. If they do, hopefully FB3 does well and is generally well received by the critics/audiences.

The thing you have to understand about how much a movie actually makes or loses in theaters is this... no one but the studio actually knows, and they don't often share it with the public. And the math is FAR more difficult than most people understand. Firstly, There is the misconception that a movie theater take any specified percentage of the films gross, when in fact theaters make very little from tickets sales, and the percentage they do get changes based on how long the film has been out and even changes based on the theater chain. Opening weekend, a theater may only keep as little as 5% of each ticket sold. Second weekend, it goes up to say 10%, and so on and so on. With each passing week, the theaters cut grows, but the rub is as each week goes by, a films weekly gross goes down. This is why theaters LOVE films like Avatar and Titanic, that have long legs and post solid high weekly grosses a month after release. It's also why we still see discount and dollar theaters. By the time a film enters the discount theaters, the theater is keeping the bulk of the ticket sales, making it a win for them even if they have lower turnout. It's a combination of all these reasons why theater concessions are so high. On average, a theater stands to make more money on concessions than it does movie tickets.

Now the percentages above do change from movie theater chain to movie theater chain. Distributors negotiate with chains on a yearly basis, and even on a film to film basis. Bigger chains tend to get better deals. Smaller chains and independent theaters tend to get the worse end of the deal.

So yeah, it's a far more difficult topic than anyone seems to understand. And if you want my sources, here they are: my family owned and operated a theater outside of Chicago my entire life until a few years ago. I was part of those negotiations more than once. Sadly that theater is now a parking lot :-(


Now back to our regularly scheduled topic of Epic Universe!

Edit: RFRees my reply wasn't meant to disagree with anything you said (because we are right on pretty much everything you said), you just had the last post in this thread when I hit reply

 

[OLSinFLA]

Not sure where you're getting that math. If that was true, many more movies would be losing money. (Though it's possible these production companies are reporting losses for tax purposes.)

According to this article, films need to make twice the budget globally to break even. This also doesn't count merch / DVD / tv / streaming.

This article about Alita agrees, stating it's budget was $170 million so its break even was $340 million (it probably didn't make enough for a sequel).

Rough rule of thumb is a film need to gross 1.5X times budget - actual milage may vary. Also its very very rare a theater keeps 50% of the take during the first few weeks. For the first ew weeks it can be anywhere from 55% to as much as 80% to the studio depending on the film. The longer the film runs, the more the percentage slides to the theater. In theory this should work out to 50% but usually big films get all their gross income in the first 3-4 weeks, by which time the theater is now getting 50% of whatever income is coming in. There are rare exceptions ("Avatar" was bonanza for theaters as the gross remained insanely high by week 4).

To give you and idea, when "Empire Strikes Back" opened in Orlando, it played at one theater for 4 weeks (and 2 more in Miami- that was it) because of the restrictions. Fox demanded (and got) - $1,000,000 upfront, required the theater to show in 70mm, demanded 70% of the box-office, and required no less than 6 shows per day. In return, Fox guaranteed exclusive run for 4 weeks.

 

[illumination]

An indoor land based on 1920s era Paris filled with magical creatures. I think it’ll be just fine even if people hate the movies.

My wife doesn’t like the Harry Potter films and yet Diagon Alley is her favorite part of Universal Orlando.

Exactly. It's a solid basis for a land, but that doesn't even matter. People will love the end result if it's executed well with a high tech ride. For example I thought Avatar was a terrible movie, but the Pandora land is incredible and the FOP ride blew me away. It's a great land to visit even if you aren't a fan of the movie. Plus, the Fantastic Beast movies could never be more popular than the original Harry Potter films. That doesn't mean they affect successful in their own way. Still have major appeal.

 

[Alicia]

You are now subscribed to Film Financials. Reply STOP to discontinue your membership.

 

[OrlLover]

You are now subscribed to Film Financials. Reply STOP to discontinue your membership.

Lol

 

[IamSherlockHolmes89]

You want me to stop this conversation of the classic IP’s coming back to the new park which all if you think they won’t and they shouldn’t but keep in mind most of these classic movies are by universal so if they ever wanted to bring them back without a new movie being remade they could like jaws, waterworld, back to the future, earthquake, backdraft, all universal properties. If they were from another production company that means universal wouldn’t own the rights to them. I sorta think one more themed land could work if their is they possibility of a fifth themed land but Make it a universal themed land from a franchise since classic monsters is something they really do need to get back to their roots Universal style.

 

[shiekra38]

You want me to stop this conversation of the classic IP’s coming back to the new park which all if you think they won’t and they shouldn’t but keep in mind most of these classic movies are by universal so if they ever wanted to bring them back without a new movie being remade they could like jaws, waterworld, back to the future, earthquake, backdraft, all universal properties. If they were from another production company that means universal wouldn’t own the rights to them. I sorta think one more themed land could work if their is they possibility of a fifth themed land but Make it a universal themed land from a franchise since classic monsters is something they really do need to get back to their roots Universal style.

Epic Universe is now un-cancelled

 

[NotPennysBoat]

You are now subscribed to Film Financials. Reply STOP to discontinue your membership.

STOP

 

[Cup_Of_Coffee]

I really hope that Super Smash Bros show comes true. Im not sure how they'd pull it off but I trust them. If Nintendo is truly meant to be the anchor than honestly having 4 attractions in that land opening day does just that.

 

[allaboutthatchase]

For the love of God, please...

 

[Cup_Of_Coffee]

Been really thinking of what I want from each land, and trying to somewhat base it off concept art and what we may know already, so here's my ultimate wishlist!

Super Nintendo World:

- Mario Kart: E Ticket attraction with revolutionary technology, many animatronics, and a ride system that gives you a slightly different right each time so re-ridability is at its peak.

- Yoshi Dark Ride: Likely a D ticket attraction, a nice smooth dark ride featuring Yoshi seems like a bunch of fun, can't really go wrong here.

- Kirby flat ride: Not sure what exactly, but a high tech spinner attraction with a Kirby AA or moving figure in the center would be a fun addition.

- Mario Pizza Place: I just love pizza, and they seem to make Mario and Luigi Italian so why not! Also Toad's Cafe could be cool.

- DK: Mine Cart Coaster looks like a blast. Probably another E ticket ride as well.

- Super Smash Bros Show: Again, not sure how this would work, but it sounds, shall we say, "Epic".

(Lot of this is likely rumored, so if its too spoiler-ish let me know. But man, I could spend an entire day here!)


Universal's Classic Monsters:

- Classic Monsters Dark Ride: Dark ride using the Kuka arm system similar to Forbidden Journey, which more practical sets and much less screen use. Might not be as thrilling, but lots of movement up and down and around, with monsters coming at you left and right. As has been said by Alicia, "Haunted Mansion on steroids" please!!!

- Classic Monsters walk through: Might be fun to have a tour guide take you through Frankenstein's lab, only to encounter the monster himself! Then our guide has to lead us out to escape, encountering more monsters along the way.

- Beetlejuice Gravyard show: Whether this is similar to what we got at USF, or the current Beetlejuice show on Broadway, would be fun to get something of a large scale for Beetlejuice. I believe the musical has lots of special effects, so could work with the large theatre if its connected to Classic Monsters.

- Steakhouse inside Dracula's castle. Highly themed dining experience with characters popping in throughout your dinner.


Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them: Paris.

- A highly themed Paris, with a sit-down restaurant option providing you excellent French cuisine, along with a Kowalski bake shop near by (Idk how they'd make it work in Paris, but they probably could, maybe he's expanding!)

- Ministry of Magic shooter attraction: E Ticket ride that brings you to all the Ministry's in the world, mixed with sets and screens and shooting with your wands that are attached to your ride vehicle. So many options for a wonderful queue, and scenic attraction with some moderate thrills as you travel t0 and from each ministry. Can even have the ride revolve around Dumbledore.

- Another E Ticket family attraction where you travel through Newt's suitcase and encounter all the beasts. Endless possibilities for AAs here. Considering its Potter and will have JK all over it, I expect a lot from this area.


How To Train Your Dragon:

- Love a Hagrid style coaster here. No drop track or anything, but complicated in the sense that your track will sway (Like SDMT), go backwards, start, stop, launch, etc. Highly themed with multiple AAs. E ticket attraction.


- Flight of Passage: Ride with Toothless, who's top half of his body is your ride vehicle so it truly feels like you're on his back. Im not sure what else to call this, but it'd be similar to flight of passage somehow. Having it HTTYD themed is even better.

- Flume ride. Highly themed flume ride and likely the most impressive flume ride in the world. Story told throughout, AAs as well. Likely Universal's own "Splash Mountain" type ride, or really its biggest water ride for families. So much that can be done with this one.

- Berk BBQ. I just think it'd work lol.

- HTTYD arena show: I think a version of the arena show that is currently (or has already) toured would be ideal. Easy way to keep crowds inside and would no doubt be highly entertaining to guests of all ages. Imagine toothless flying around the theatre at the end? Could be special.





Well, thats basically what I want out of the 4 lands. God I can't wait for this park to open.

 

[RFRees]

along with a Kowalski bake shop near by (Idk how they'd make it work in Paris, but they probably could, maybe he's expanding!)

You nailed it. They made a "franchised" Ollivanders at WWOHP / Hogsmeade with no problem, they could easily do the same with Kowalski and his bake shop.

I also wouldn't be surprised if Ollivanders shows up in Paris as another franchised location. According to the canon, Ollivanders have been around for a couple thousand years as a family of renowned wand makers. While I don't believe they ever specifically said that Ollivanders had a franchised location in Paris, there's no reason they couldn't have one. And bringing something familiar (to Potter fans) to the area would be a no brainer.

 

[Mr Horse]

While I don't believe they ever specifically said that Ollivanders had a franchised location in Paris, there's no reason they couldn't have one. And bringing something familiar (to Potter fans) to the area would be a no brainer.

To the larger point, I can't imagine them building a 'Potter Land' that doesn't sell wands.

 

[JungleSkip]

To the larger point, I can't imagine them building a 'Potter Land' that doesn't sell wands.

They'll definitely sell wands, but I doubt they'll build another full-show Ollivanders. They already overbuilt with one in Diagon, and converted one of the show spaces to Globus Mundi

 

[RFRees]

To the larger point, I can't imagine them building a 'Potter Land' that doesn't sell wands.

Oh yeah for sure, I think it's just debatable whether this will be labeled as an Ollivanders location. And if it is, they may end up cloning the 'wand choosing' attraction again.

I don't actually remember any wand shops from FB1/2, perhaps in FB3 but doubt it..
HP seems to focus much more on shops/products than FB does. They could of course make up something unique for EU, but I'm sure they are going to want to mix unique with familiar throughout this land.

 

[Parkscope Joe]

They'll definitely sell wands, but I doubt they'll build another full-show Ollivanders. They already overbuilt with one in Diagon, and converted one of the show spaces to Globus Mundi

I can see them doing that because the Hogsmeade location still exists.

 

[JungleSkip]

I can see them doing that because the Hogsmeade location still exists.

I think a third location would be overkill.

 

[GAcoaster]

They'll come up with some new experience shop for the new land. Something new to sell at a premium...

 

[RFRees]

I think a third location would be overkill.

It's a small footprint and essentially is used as a sales pitch to generate additional wand sales. Why would you not build one room dedicated to 'wand choosing you'?

Frequent visitors are going to pass, but this show isn't for them.

If they make space for the vacation club or other sales locations, I'd be insulted if they didn't make space for the Ollivanders Time Share, I mean, Wand Shop Show.

 

[Cup_Of_Coffee]

They can still do some sort of want "Presentation" that can be a sort of mini show like Olivanders. Could easily work. Also have interactive wand locations throughout Paris.