In regards to the Potter fatigue and it "failing".... all we have to do is look no further than Diagon Alley in Orlando. They ripped out a timeless ride that people still ask where it is at 4 years after it closed, just to build "more Potter" because apparently there was a demand for it :unsure: Sure the Potter fanboys will geek out over Diagon Alley, but they're sheep (no offense to you Potter fans on here) who will OMGZ over anything (just like all of us Star Wars fans are doing... and I LOVE Star Wars, but the thought of a new movie every year for the next 5+ years doesn't excite me, it makes me feel burnt out before it even begins).. ANYWAY....
Diagon Alley opened last year to a pretty abysmal fanfare crowd-wise. We all remember what Universal looked like when WWOHP opened in 2010... it was Pottergeddon! That didn't happen the 2nd time around. Which made me laugh at their whole promo crap of "Lightning strikes twice"
The park was not slammed, sure there was a several hour wait to get into the new land, but it was nothing like it was a few years ago. The annual passes (with blackout dates) & employee comp tickets were blocked out until nearly September... well when Universal realized there wasn't a Pottergeddon 2.0 like they expected, those blocked out APs/comp tickets were able to be used at the beginning of August. I moved out here the same month DA opened (was so annoyed that the day after I went to the park July 2nd, they soft opened the actual land. At least I got to give into laziness & take the Potterail aka Hogwarts Express to IOA).. Even during the soft opening of the Hogwarts Express, I was able to walk right on with no wait twice to IOA, once to Studios (this was before DA actually opened... so that alone should put it into perspective) WWOHP was slammed the first year or 2 it was open before crowds became tolerable. Diagon Alley was only open for less than a month before its hype died down. Even the day it grand opened, the parks were still tolerable crowd-wise...
Yes, there are many people in California (or the West Coast in general) that have never been to WWOHP in Orlando (or Japan), so they're obviously excited to finally experience it. That's understandable. While I'm personally expecting Pottergeddon to happen here, part of me also feels like the novelty of Potter has worn off and we won't see the massive crowds that Orlando saw in 2010. If anything, it will be like last year's Diagon Alley opening.. There will be a several hour wait to get into WWOHP, but the park will be slightly tolerable. Although I say tolerable very loosely only because USH doesn't have as much to offer guests like Orlando does.
I don't think Potter will necessarily fail, but as I said, part of me doesn't expect what USH is hoping for. I'd be curious to know how much Potter merch is sold each day because it just doesn't seem like there is really a demand for it (especially not when you can buy it elsewhere... WB Studios, Hot Topic, online, etc). I'll say it again though, these new AP prices can not be justified by WWOHP.