Attendance Tracker

[SeventyOne]

Random observation--visiting MK for first time since July this weekend, it was slammed (Spring Break level) Saturday, still quite busy Sunday. Much busier than any point in July, even July 3 with the fireworks. I can only attribute that the restrictions being lifted on lower-tier APs.

I think--as central FL explodes with growth, lower-tier APs became slightly more affordable, and Sea World/Universal become less attractive options--WDW has begun a drift more toward the DLR model: a locals playground. There are still ways to make money off that--limited edition mugs at Trader Sam's being an obvious example--but I do wonder if TDO is ready to capitalize on that.

 

[JoeCamel]

Random observation--visiting MK for first time since July this weekend, it was slammed (Spring Break level) Saturday, still quite busy Sunday. Much busier than any point in July, even July 3 with the fireworks. I can only attribute that the restrictions being lifted on lower-tier APs.

I think--as central FL explodes with growth, lower-tier APs became slightly more affordable, and Sea World/Universal become less attractive options--WDW has begun a drift more toward the DLR model: a locals playground. There are still ways to make money off that--limited edition mugs at Trader Sam's being an obvious example--but I do wonder if TDO is ready to capitalize on that.

TDO has been actively discouraging APs for years. Just recently they gave the dining discounts back but they can certainly afford it with the price hikes that have caused a shift from top tier passes to the restricted ones. It won't take many more hikes to kick those off the roles so I think they have addressed it and will continue to. There will always be the dusters that mortgage their lives to be able to enter the "world" but more and more are failing to see the value any longer. I am of that group as of 5 years ago.

 

[Nick]

TDO has been actively discouraging APs for years. Just recently they gave the dining discounts back but they can certainly afford it with the price hikes that have caused a shift from top tier passes to the restricted ones. It won't take many more hikes to kick those off the roles so I think they have addressed it and will continue to. There will always be the dusters that mortgage their lives to be able to enter the "world" but more and more are failing to see the value any longer. I am of that group as of 5 years ago.

Just about nobody is mortgaging their lives for an AP, it's called having the money to afford it.

Now people mortgaging their lives for DVC? Yeah, that happens a lot.

 

[SeventyOne]

TDO has been actively discouraging APs for years.

They had been, yes. Did a serious U-turn about a year ago, making their product much more attractive to locals (and continuing to add benefits, like the dining discount). Which happened to coincide with a bit of staleness and price hikes at UOR and SWO's slide into irrelevance. A $400 AP is basically a weekend getaway for most; with parking and flexpay, it became a much more attractive deal to a lot of people. And the numbers are reflecting that.

 

[JoeCamel]

They had been, yes. Did a serious U-turn about a year ago, making their product much more attractive to locals (and continuing to add benefits, like the dining discount). Which happened to coincide with a bit of staleness and price hikes at UOR and SWO's slide into irrelevance. A $400 AP is basically a weekend getaway for most; with parking and flexpay, it became a much more attractive deal to a lot of people. And the numbers are reflecting that.

I'm not sure the numbers are showing that. The last 4 quarters domestic parks has been flat. They don't break out WDW alone but that is what TEA has posted with their estimate. (Yeah I know TEA) A few percent up but not normal growth by any means.
Disney World attendance down in 2016, report says - Orlando Sentinel

 

[SeventyOne]

I'm not sure the numbers are showing that. The last 4 quarters domestic parks has been flat. They don't break out WDW alone but that is what TEA has posted with their estimate. (Yeah I know TEA) A few percent up but not normal growth by any means.
Disney World attendance down in 2016, report says - Orlando Sentinel

I think they only did this because they are hemorrhaging elsewhere. So overall rate of growth would be flat (I don't buy TEA, I think it's down even, based on first-hand observation and reports). But the guests that are left are a larger percentage of APs than ever. Slowly morphing the park into more of a DLR model. Not there yet, but headed that way. But that model is completely foreign to TDO. They need to learn to act more like Anaheim.

 

[Mad Dog]

Len Testa, Touring Plans owner, is saying that word on the street is that layoff in the thousands will be announced for Parks & Resorts in the next few weeks. He's saying these were planned in advance and are not weather related. Len speculated the massive layoffs are due to a combination of the following:
1) Avatar drove little to no new guests visits to WDW
2)Higher prices are reducing demand
3) Lower than expected numbers from ESPN and movies.......I'm betting Comcast will smell blood and react appropriately (aggressive/expedited expansions)

 

[Mad Dog]

Update on the above post: This morning Len Testa, on Touring Plans, said they would be readjusting the WDW crowd calendar, since in the past couple of years, whenever WDW did a layoff, the stand by line times increased by 10 to 15%.

 

[bob albert]

yay premium prices and a worse experience

 

[Scott W.]

I'm thinking this hurricane could have an effect on next year. A lot of people probably will see this as a regular thing and could be put off visiting.

 

[JungleSkip]

I'm thinking this hurricane could have an effect on next year. A lot of people probably will see this as a regular thing and could be put off visiting.

I doubt that. Hurricanes and Florida have been synonymous since time immemorial and people still come

 

[Wolf359]

I doubt that. Hurricanes and Florida have been synonymous since time immemorial and people still come

Not here in the UK mate, you'd be amazed how many people were dumbfounded by the coverage of Irma. Loads had no idea you could get hurricanes. It will put off a load of UK travellers.

 

[JungleSkip]

It will put off a load of UK travellers.

I'll take that bet.

 

[SeventyOne]

I doubt that. Hurricanes and Florida have been synonymous since time immemorial and people still come

Only effect will be fewer local APs. Might slow WDW's slow transformation into DLR.

 

[Scott W.]

Not here in the UK mate, you'd be amazed how many people were dumbfounded by the coverage of Irma. Loads had no idea you could get hurricanes. It will put off a load of UK travellers.

That's my thinking. I've been going to Orlando for 25+ years and missed a few by a couple of weeks but this was the closest I came to being there as it happened. I had about 5 people in Orlando last week who had no idea that this was even a possibility and their fear and panic experienced during this would be enough to put most off from returning.

This will educate people into doing a little more research before travelling.

With everything going on like Brexit, Trump, hurricanes, price increases, staff firings, shootings, crocodile attacks, mass construction and economic uncertainty, Orlando is becoming a less desirable place to travel to for the UK people over the next couple of years.

 

[Mad Dog]

That's my thinking. I've been going to Orlando for 25+ years and missed a few by a couple of weeks but this was the closest I came to being there as it happened. I had about 5 people in Orlando last week who had no idea that this was even a possibility and their fear and panic experienced during this would be enough to put most off from returning.

This will educate people into doing a little more research before travelling.

With everything going on like Brexit, Trump, hurricanes, price increases, staff firings, shootings, crocodile attacks, mass construction and economic uncertainty, Orlando is becoming a less desirable place to travel to for the UK people over the next couple of years.

You forgot to include "The Black Plague" on your list. I think that's scheduled for November....Seriously though....I, for one, have been kind of scared off for hurricane season. It was hell coming down here in 2015 & 2016 travel wise due to tropical storms & hurricanes. And the only reason we didn't come down this September is because Alene was short on vacation days. So we were lucky it wasn't three in a row. Why try my luck anymore?So I'm looking at alternatives for Sept./ Oct....Might try November or first week in Dec. Since it looks like Universal will be expanding holiday offerings in the next two years, Dec. is looking like an idea. Fortunately May still is safe. And I only do non peak times, so spring break, holidays and miserable heat/rain/humidity summers are off the table..... Bottom line is my choices have really narrowed. ....But, though people in the know may hesitate, I think the general public will continue to come, UNLESS, this happens on this scale again next year in the Fall. Then, all bets are off.

 

[Scott W.]

You forgot to include "The Black Plague" on your list. I think that's scheduled for November....Seriously though....I, for one, have been kind of scared off for hurricane season. It was hell coming down here in 2015 & 2016 travel wise due to tropical storms & hurricanes. And the only reason we didn't come down this September is because Alene was short on vacation days. So we were lucky it wasn't three in a row. Why try my luck anymore?So I'm looking at alternatives for Sept./ Oct....Might try November or first week in Dec. Since it looks like Universal will be expanding holiday offerings in the next two years, Dec. is looking like an idea. Fortunately May still is safe. And I only do non peak times, so spring break, holidays and miserable heat/rain/humidity summers are off the table..... Bottom line is my choices have really narrowed. ....But, though people in the know may hesitate, I think the general public will continue to come, UNLESS, this happens on this scale again next year in the Fall. Then, all bets are off.

Lucky man. You could look at this that how likely is it to happen again or is this going to become more and more regular with climate change.

I'm kind of locked into late August/September. When the schools are off, the prices are ridiculous plus I'd rather avoid the summer rush. I also need to be in work for the first week of October at the latest as that's when our busy season really kicks off all the way through till Christmas Eve.

I think for a lot of people, September is by far the most atttactive month to visit. Nicer weather, cheaper, less busy plus any new attractions that are summer opening should be open by then and maybe even had that initial rush pass.

 

[Mad Dog]

Lucky man. You could look at this that how likely is it to happen again or is this going to become more and more regular with climate change.

I'm kind of locked into late August/September. When the schools are off, the prices are ridiculous plus I'd rather avoid the summer rush. I also need to be in work for the first week of October at the latest as that's when our busy season really kicks off all the way through till Christmas Eve.

I think for a lot of people, September is by far the most atttactive month to visit. Nicer weather, cheaper, less busy plus any new attractions that are summer opening should be open by then and maybe even had that initial rush pass.

May is great. We've generally gotten great sunshine, little rain, and the trips down and back have been event free. But I still like twice a year, so I need to find that other decent hotel prices time, thus early to mid November or first week of December. Maybe even the end of October. If Mark (UK Trigg) can make it to Pittsburgh in the fall, I can wait it out)Otherwise I'll give it one more try next year end of Sept.

 

[Scott W.]

May is great. We've generally gotten great sunshine, little rain, and the trips down and back have been event free. But I still like twice a year, so I need to find that other decent hotel prices time, thus early to mid November or first week of December. Maybe even the end of October. If Mark (UK Trigg) can make it to Pittsburgh in the fall, I can wait it out)Otherwise I'll give it one more try next year end of Sept.

I think this will be the reality for a lot of people who decide to return to Orlando after getting a fright here. They will return, have a great time and forget everything before until it happens again. Could be a year, could be a decade, could be never depending on their luck.

 

[Wolf359]

As Scott says a lot, probably the majority, of Brits didn't realise that Orlando is even in a hurricane zone. Our schools will not allow you to take kids on holiday during term time (they will even fine you if you do) so end of July until beginning of sept is the only time when most can travel. Which is why it's the most expensive time for us to travel. This will put people off for years to come