2019 Hurricane Thread

[devinp267]

Well I'm headed to work @3 (lowes) lord knows I'm not in a mood.:enrage:

 

[Joel]

What sort of an impact do those have? Depressions and storms I mean. Grounded flights and the like?

As they mentioned, mostly rain.

Depressions don't affect much at all, our daily thunderstorms are stronger. Depressions are winds less than 38mph and our thunderstorms often produce winds up to 70mph.

Storms may start grounding flights as you go from 39mph winds (low end) up to cat 1 strength (74mph) where flights will be cancelled and planes relocated.

 

[Vyrus]

Most Models have it hitting around Canaveral or curving up and missing.

That light green one though is NO BUENO.

 

[Joel]

Made this gif to show the forecast history of the last hurricane to hit us, Irma. We received about cat 1-2 strength winds from this hitting the west coast, lost power for 2 weeks.

2017 Irma forecast loop



A little comparison of the same point in forecasts (114 hours til forecasted landfall) for 2017's Irma and Dorian just to show the difference in forecast and actual track.

2017 Irma forecast with my crude drawing of actual track:



Latest Dorian advisory:

 

[rinacee]

Not expecting it to be too bad where my husband and I are (Tallahassee area) at least as of the latest forecasts, but our shelves are already getting low on water. I think Michael definitely made its impact here and people aren't messing around. Our power goes out during even the most average of thunderstorms so you just never know. We were going to wait until he got off of work tonight to go get some 24 packs but he told me that there was already a lot of buzz on the radio and news about it so I thought it best to go out earlier in the day. Glad I did.
My brother is around Vero Beach so I'm keeping a close eye on this one. We're heading down for HHN the 13th so we'll be in the clear at least for that.

 

[Stryker]

Just curious about water running out at stores. Do many or most people not have some sort of water filtration system at home such as from your fridge or a reverse osmosis filter under the kitchen sink? Even a simple Brita to filter your own tap water. Here in California, I have several 5-gallon jugs and one even has a spigot on it for easy dispensing that I just fill with my own filtered water in preparation for earthquakes.

 

[frank_1991_]

Just curious about water running out at stores. Do many or most people not have some sort of water filtration system at home such as from your fridge or a reverse osmosis filter under the kitchen sink? Even a simple Brita to filter your own tap water. Here in California, I have several 5-gallon jugs and one even has a spigot on it for easy dispensing that I just fill with my own filtered water in preparation for earthquakes.

Us Florida Folk Would much rather live out our mad max fantasy at Costco thank you very much lol

 

[WAJAS]

Sometimes cleans water being “out” means they’ve cut off the supply due to a a rupture that is causing contamination. A filter doesn’t help when you don’t have a flow. This isn’t even mentioning how most fridge and ‘brita’ style filters are only meant to clean normal tap water.

Stocking store bought water or saving tap water in large containers is a must for when everything is being repaired and during the storm.

 

[Magic-Man]

Absolutely not. No. Please no.

 

[Disneyhead]

The 3 major models all have it at a Cat 3 at landfall. The NOAA model has it hitting Melbourne. The USA model has it hitting Jacksonville. And The European model has it hitting Palm Beach.

 

[devinp267]

Absolutely not. No. Please no.

Right! Stay as you were

 

[Joel]

The 3 major models all have it at a Cat 3 at landfall. The NOAA model has it hitting Melbourne. The USA model has it hitting Jacksonville. And The European model has it hitting Palm Beach.

I'm voting for Palm Beach for two reasons:

1. less impact on HHN
2. I hope Mar a Lago gets a direct hit and is wiped from this Earth (I hate golf :thumbsup: )

anyways, here's my forecast track loop for Dorian, NOAA model:



difference between 2pm and 5pm advisories:

2PM:




5PM:



European Model:



BTW - great website for viewing different models (GFS aka american, ECMWF aka European and others in one page): ECMWF Model - Tropical Tidbits

 

[Magic-Man]

I'm voting for Palm Beach for two reasons:

1. less impact on HHN
2. I hope Mar a Lago gets a direct hit and is wiped from this Earth (I hate golf :thumbsup: )

anyways, here's my forecast track loop for Dorian, NOAA model:

View attachment 10749

difference between 2pm and 5pm advisories:

2PM:

View attachment 10752


5PM:

View attachment 10753

I hate to be that guy, but let's not root for certain places to be devastated by a hurricane. People live there.

 

[Joel]

I hate to be that guy, but let's not root for certain places to be devastated by a hurricane. People live there.

trust me, I know. need a little comedic relief somewhere. I live closer to mar a Lago so this path is bad for me

EDIT: exhibit A - I just finished work, heading to my local home of pot to pick up my order:

 

[rhino4evr]

I'm voting for Palm Beach for two reasons:

1. less impact on HHN
2. I hope Mar a Lago gets a direct hit and is wiped from this Earth (I hate golf :thumbsup: )

anyways, here's my forecast track loop for Dorian, NOAA model:

View attachment 10749

difference between 2pm and 5pm advisories:

2PM:

View attachment 10752


5PM:

View attachment 10753

European Model:

View attachment 10754

BTW - great website for viewing different models (GFS aka american, ECMWF aka European and others in one page): ECMWF Model - Tropical Tidbits

If it goes by the Euro track it will be a direct hit for my house. It’s also one of the most populated and expensive areas of not only Florida, but of the US. It would be a complete catastrophe if it hit Palm beach county direct. As its never really happened.

 

[Bobharlem]

yeah this model...



(Cat 5 into Port Canaveral)

 

[Magic-Man]

yeah this model...



(Cat 5 into Port Canaveral)

Please for the love of God, NO.

 

[Brian G.]

Unbelievable that this was forecast to be, at worst, a low wind Tropical Storm just under 48 hours ago.

 

[Magic-Man]

Unbelievable that this was forecast to be, at worst, a low wind Tropical Storm just under 48 hours ago.

That's hurricane season for ya. Now let's hope that it goes down a notch, because I don't want to lose power for a week (again).

 

[Bobharlem]

That's hurricane season for ya. Now let's hope that it goes down a notch, because I don't want to lose power for a week (again).

That level of hurricane would be a lot longer than a week out of power for most folks. It would also likely knock a lot or most of the cell network out, especially closer to the east coast.