California Theme Parks & Shopping Districts Reopening General Thread

[Scott W.]

Orange County had 203 cases yesterday. To hit yellow tier, they need to have 31 cases a day to hit the 1 per 100k population target.

I'm not comparing COVID to the flu but for context, in the 2017 - 2018 flu season, Orange County had 6050 cases or about 17 cases a day on average. COVID is more contagious.

Edit: My 17 cases a day average was based on 12 months, California flu season is typically 7 months long, so averages 28 cases a day.

 

[Parkscope Joe]

Anyway, my thoughts are these guidelines are un-serious and a farce. Restaurants and theaters can be open at 25% capacity where you sit hours inside a location with recirculating air yet theme parks cannot reopen now. Yeah, no. There's a middle ground to be found between DeSantis' YOLO approach and Newsom's "COVID needs to be back in the toothpaste tube" approach, Orange County Florida's industry and heath based approach seems to be that good middle ground but could use some tweaking. As it stands now there are aspects of the guidelines that cannot be met even if a vaccine is widely available.

The virus spreads in known ways and infections occur with certain viral loads. This doesn't address any of that.

I fully expect lawsuits from this.

 

[Brian G.]

Enough with the politics. Bans will be coming if it continues.

 

[Jerroddragon]

Anyway, my thoughts are these guidelines are un-serious and a farce. Restaurants and theaters can be open at 25% capacity where you sit hours inside a location with recirculating air yet theme parks cannot reopen now. Yeah, no. There's a middle ground to be found between DeSantis' YOLO approach and Newsom's "COVID needs to be back in the toothpaste tube" approach, Orange County Florida's industry and heath based approach seems to be that good middle ground but could use some tweaking. As it stands now there are aspects of the guidelines that cannot be met even if a vaccine is widely available.

I fully expect lawsuits from this.

Theaters in LA isn't open...so I don't know if it will hold much water

Also I don't think your allowed to have people inside to each in LA either

 

[Tbad556]

Meanwhile at Universal...

 

[shiekra38]

Meanwhile at Universal...

Big fan of this Tweet

Not a big fan of all the layoffs coming soon

 

[vgp]

This pandemic has reminded me of the thin line between rationality and insanity, and that can be represented by the difference in being (or portraying, in this case) 99.9% safe and 100.0% safe. A study showed that social distancing reduces the chance of transmission down to 2.6%, and masks reduce transmission by 85%. Therefore, the difference between 'unacceptable' (5% positivity * 2.6% transmission w/ social * 85% mask transmission reduction = 99.98% safe) and 'acceptable' (1.9% positivity * 2.6% * 85% = 99.99% safe) is really stretching the definition of what 'safe' really means, if you allow my completely generalized math... but it's still non-zero, and that appears to be what California is clinging to; I don't know what number would meet an 'acceptably low' criteria for risk if not the current state of things, and so yeah it clearly seems like punting this to a later date so as to not receive backlash.

 

[Legacy]

This pandemic has reminded me of the thin line between rationality and insanity, and that can be represented by the difference in being (or portraying, in this case) 99.9% safe and 100.0% safe. A study showed that social distancing reduces the chance of transmission down to 2.6%, and masks reduce transmission by 85%. Therefore, the difference between 'unacceptable' (5% positivity * 2.6% transmission w/ social * 85% mask transmission reduction = 99.98% safe) and 'acceptable' (1.9% positivity * 2.6% * 85% = 99.99% safe) is really stretching the definition of what 'safe' really means, if you allow my completely generalized math... but it's still non-zero, and that appears to be what California is clinging to; I don't know what number would meet an 'acceptably low' criteria for risk if not the current state of things, and so yeah it clearly seems like punting this to a later date so as to not receive backlash.

Except, it’s not looking for zero.

COVID-19 Resources

covid19.ca.gov

Orange tier is looking for 5% total positive tests and 4 daily new cases per 100k.

Yellow is 2% positive tests.

I get that people want the parks open. I get that Florida is already open, so “what’s the harm?”

Orange County (FL) has a currently infected rate of just over 3% its entire population. LA county is a 2.8%. So let’s say LA opens and they increase to the OC percent (and not higher). That increases the infected amount of infected in LA (one county) by 25,000 people. If one out of every 1,000 die, that’s 25 people dead.

And this math is just one county and ignores the exponential infection rates and the fact that LA is far more compact than Orange County.

Does it suck? Yes. But, christ, 54 people died in Florida yesterday from COVID compared to 8 in California. Maybe the system works.

 

[JawsVictim]

Well

Anyway, my thoughts are these guidelines are un-serious and a farce. Restaurants and theaters can be open at 25% capacity where you sit hours inside a location with recirculating air yet theme parks cannot reopen now. Yeah, no. There's a middle ground to be found between DeSantis' YOLO approach and Newsom's "COVID needs to be back in the toothpaste tube" approach, Orange County Florida's industry and heath based approach seems to be that good middle ground but could use some tweaking. As it stands now there are aspects of the guidelines that cannot be met even if a vaccine is widely available.

The virus spreads in known ways and infections occur with certain viral loads. This doesn't address any of that.

I fully expect lawsuits from this.

As mentioned, theaters here in LA are closed and restaurants are outdoor only.

I’d rather have the better safe than sorry approach California’s aiming for than the freewheeling approach Florida has. What I wish both states would implement is a testing database and strict rules on entering the parks contingent upon a negative test in the last 48 hours.

 

[Scott W.]

Except, it’s not looking for zero.

COVID-19 Resources

covid19.ca.gov

Orange tier is looking for 5% total positive tests and 4 daily new cases per 100k.

Yellow is 2% positive tests.

I get that people want the parks open. I get that Florida is already open, so “what’s the harm?”

Orange County (FL) has a currently infected rate of just over 3% its entire population. LA county is a 2.8%. So let’s say LA opens and they increase to the OC percent (and not higher). That increases the infected amount of infected in LA (one county) by 25,000 people. If one out of every 1,000 die, that’s 25 people dead.

And this math is just one county and ignores the exponential infection rates and the fact that LA is far more compact than Orange County.

Does it suck? Yes. But, christ, 54 people died in Florida yesterday from COVID compared to 8 in California. Maybe the system works.

As, @Joe said, there is a middle ground.

Are those 54 deaths in Florida related to the parks being open or the mindset of the people in Florida and the governor saying it's open season? (No offence to the locals here)

As many people said here, they feel safer at the parks than most other places. As long as the rules are strictly enforced in the parks and state wide, it can work.

 

[JawsVictim]

One point that’s being neglected here is that the CA parks are smaller and have less space than the ones in Florida.

 

[Bulldog45]

I mean this is borderline criminal. Orange County has to be below 2% positivity rate for theme parks to open? Who the hell pulled that number out of the air? Didn’t the CDC or the WHO recommend getting the positivity rate below 5%? Those are the SCIENTISTS. California should just be its own country at this point...

 

[vgp]

Except, it’s not looking for zero.

Orange tier is looking for 5% total positive tests and 4 daily new cases per 100k.

Yellow is 2% positive tests.

I get that people want the parks open. I get that Florida is already open, so “what’s the harm?”

Orange County (FL) has a currently infected rate of just over 3% its entire population. LA county is a 2.8%. So let’s say LA opens and they increase to the OC percent (and not higher). That increases the infected amount of infected in LA (one county) by 25,000 people. If one out of every 1,000 die, that’s 25 people dead.

And this math is just one county and ignores the exponential infection rates and the fact that LA is far more compact than Orange County.

Does it suck? Yes. But, christ, 54 people died in Florida yesterday from COVID compared to 8 in California. Maybe the system works.

That's sort of my point; the same logic that argues for 2% against 5%, would then subsequently argue for 0% against 2%. "Acceptable risk" is sort of a moving goalpost in all of this, and any positivity rate over 0% would result in additional fatalities vs. the baseline of 'closed'. I'm not pretending there's an easy or one-size-fits-all solution here, but it's just hard to find compelling data that the amusement parks are as big of a risk as one would have thought originally. There certainly isn't any compelling evidence to say that they are *more* risky than, say, grocery stores or restaurants or outdoor parks, so long as the procedures are actually followed; Orange County, CA has 2.3x the population of Orange County, FL but has 2.7x the number of COVID fatalities, as one data point. I'm not naive enough to think there's no impact; any gathering is going to carry some risk, but that's what we're dealing with, those thresholds between "shut everything down and weld the doors" and "abandon all risk, party away" and those thresholds are not going to have a clear, conclusive point where opening is either acceptable or unacceptable.

 

[Cup_Of_Coffee]

As, @Joe said, there is a middle ground.

Are those 54 deaths in Florida related to the parks being open or the mindset of the people in Florida and the governor saying it's open season? (No offence to the locals here)

As many people said here, they feel safer at the parks than most other places. As long as the rules are strictly enforced in the parks and state wide, it can work.

Again, FEELING safer does not mean you ARE safe. Enough of this.

 

[joerodriguez]

 

[quinnmac000]

There is a level of complexity in this manner.

Per the press conference, guidelines came from experts who visited the Florida theme parks. While they said, they managed to see good practices in regards for queuing, It seems they saw improper mask wearing and other negative things made their guidelines more restrictive in nature to ensure there is no trace to the parks. This came directly from the mouth of Dr Mark Ghaly who was in charge of putting the plan together. There have been posters on this forum who have posted anecdotal evidence of lack of enforcement of masks in parks as well as lack of social distancing in other threads.

I get it, people do need to get back to work and I also understand that the vast restrictions are somewhat political. However, Legacy has addressed very well the issues California faces in regards to COVID in comparison to other states. California has gone through so much already this year not COVID related that they can't afford more healthcare cases.

 

[fryoj]

Anyway, my thoughts are these guidelines are un-serious and a farce. Restaurants and theaters can be open at 25% capacity where you sit hours inside a location with recirculating air yet theme parks cannot reopen now. Yeah, no. There's a middle ground to be found between DeSantis' YOLO approach and Newsom's "COVID needs to be back in the toothpaste tube" approach, Orange County Florida's industry and heath based approach seems to be that good middle ground but could use some tweaking. As it stands now there are aspects of the guidelines that cannot be met even if a vaccine is widely available.

The virus spreads in known ways and infections occur with certain viral loads. This doesn't address any of that.

I fully expect lawsuits from this.

I'm not aware of a single instance where a state won a lawsuit on the arbitrary nature of guidelines. I know there's been some head scratchers on church lawsuits, but the courts have almost all said the rules have not been arbitrary. Why someone in CA hasn't sued is beyond me. I'm guessing this will be the straw that breaks the camel's back.

As, @Joe said, there is a middle ground.

Are those 54 deaths in Florida related to the parks being open or the mindset of the people in Florida and the governor saying it's open season? (No offence to the locals here)

As many people said here, they feel safer at the parks than most other places. As long as the rules are strictly enforced in the parks and state wide, it can work.

One thing that has to be factored in is the average age in Florida is like 5-6 years older than in CA. I know that's not the only factor, but from day one people have been assuming that covid would ravage FL because of the older population.

 

[shiekra38]

p o l i t i c s

 

[Rideguy70]

There is a level of complexity in this manner.

Per the press conference, guidelines came from experts who visited the Florida theme parks. While they said, they managed to see good practices in regards for queuing, It seems they saw improper mask wearing and other negative things made their guidelines more restrictive in nature to ensure there is no trace to the parks. This came directly from the mouth of Dr Mark Ghaly who was in charge of putting the plan together. There have been posters on this forum who have posted anecdotal evidence of lack of enforcement of masks in parks as well as lack of social distancing in other threads.

I get it, people do need to get back to work and I also understand that the vast restrictions are somewhat political. However, Legacy has addressed very well the issues California faces in regards to COVID in comparison to other states. California has gone through so much already this year not COVID related that they can't afford more healthcare cases.

This is my issue. For the most part, I do believe that parks will do their best to make things as safe as possible. What I can't trust are the other park guests. At the Knott's events, there's still a significant of people not wearing masks properly (nose exposed), or walking around with the mask off to eat or drink, or not keeping social distance, despite rules to the contrary. And there isn't enough consistent enforcement, no matter what parks try to do. Some guests will continuously flaunt the rules every chance they get. Not to mention that confronting one about this can be a huge ordeal, as anyone who has seen any "Karen" videos can attest.

And yeah, sure, lots of places other places are open (grocery stores and the like), but let's be real... there are lots of people not masking up correctly or social distancing in those places either. Just this last weekend, we visited Carlsbad, and I'd estimate about 25% of people weren't wearing masks at all.

Really, our worst enemy is ourselves.

 

[Nick]

For some context, movie theaters aren’t allowed to reopen (25% or 100, whichever is fewer) until orange tier.

This is completely in line with what the state has been doing this entire time.

EDIT - And several counties have not done mass reopenings when they reach a new tier. For example, we moved into orange about three weeks ago, and some industries are still operating under red.

Movie Theaters in Orange County have been open for awhile, I believe.