Disney Parks Build Timelines

[GA-MBIT]

I feel like every time I have popped into a Disney parks thread there is one issue that will consistently be cited, no matter what park or where in the world it is. Cause of that, I feel like it might be worth exploring Disney Park's build timelines a little more specifically. Honestly, it's kind of feeling like the Universal Park Screenz debate at this point.

Why are they so glacial? Do they have anything lined up on the horizon past the Tiana redos? Have we actually gotten at least 1-2 new notable attractions every year since 2017, and we just want more because we're spoiled? Would the 2017 announcements have been recieved better if they were announced individually "Universal style" over the years, say around 6 month ahead of opening?

Mods, feel free to step in if this is a bad idea haha!

 

[OrlandoGuy]

I can only speak from my own experience, which has not been at Disney. However, I do work in a large F500 company and oversee a lot of projects in conjunction with Tech and Product Management Teams where I believe the same principles apply.

Basically, every project’s approval is predicated on (among other things) its payback period…when will it break even? For a theme park attraction, that payback period is usually going to be harder to define than that of, say, a restaurant or store or hotel because…
1.) you can’t truly create a direct attribution model to a new ride
2.) these are humongous investments that, even with today’s ticket prices, are going to take a while to recoup regardless

For Creatives, Operations leaders, etc. this really wouldn’t be a problem because they understand the business and the “spend money to make money” mantra. The problem is their bosses aren’t in the actual park with them…they’re sitting in board meetings wondering where their money is going. Joe Schmoe with $xxx,000 in Disney stock doesn’t care about the creative integrity of the park or the guest satisfaction from a new ride; he wants to know how his investment in the company is treating him every quarter.

The long construction timelines are the compromise…instead of asking Joe to throw his money at a ride with an undefined payback period, Disney takes a little bit of his investment each quarter and puts it toward construction development. It’s gotta be small enough that Mr. Schmoe doesn’t feel like he’s being ripped off, so throw in a few festivals, and some DVC rooms in in the meantime to keep him happy and float the appearance of a steady revenue-generating business. The unfortunate part is that when Disney hits its ride construction budget for the quarter, they’re done…to keep their investors happy, they won’t spend another dime on what they can’t directly attribute revenue to because that’ll tip the scales too far. If $1 million in Q3 is what they can allocate to ride construction to keep the balance sheets looking pretty, that’s the cap (regardless of if the ride is close to being finished by then or not).

The reason, I think, that Disney is unique in this is because they’re the only major, year-round theme park in which the parks are a significant asset to the parent company’s overall portfolio. Universal is a huge profit machine for Comcast, don’t get me wrong, but it’s viewed as a side piece of the cable business—as long as guests are coming into the parks (which they do thanks to aggressive construction timelines), investors aren’t as worried about what’s going on because there are billions of dollars being pumped in from cable subscribers each quarter (revenue that dwarfs that which you could get OR spend on a theme park ride). On the other hand, your regional parks aren’t attracting the same level of investment or eyes on Wall Street…and the ones that do invest know exactly what business they’re getting into (amusement parks…build a new ride by the time the new season hits and mission accomplished).

I think it’s a great conversation starter btw…the business of theme parks is a fascinating thing and while the product itself is different from most companies, the logic is largely the same. If I have to get a project approved, I’m gonna have better luck asking for leftover pocket change at the end of several quarters than I am asking for a huge chunk of funds upfront.

 

[PerceptiveCoot]

It's really only a problem by comparison. Universal has set the standard over the past few decades, and Disney tried to speed things up Pre-Covid but just ended up slowing down later. Even thouh Disney has also been opening about an attraction a year, existing problems with their underbuilt parks only compound frustrations with their build times. An attraction a year may be great by Universal standards, but Disney is still paying off years of underdevelopment in Florida (especially at Animal Kingdom, which gets one new thing a decade).

 

[TheUniC6]

The slower construction times are also partially due to Disney resting on their laurels knowing they can count on their fanbase to come back to them no matter what. Disney needs to realize that being slow will also end up hurting them long term as well. For example, that Frozen land in Paris probably isn't going to open until 2025 at the earliest. You would think that with the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris, this would have fast tracked post pandemic considering the still sad state of WDSP and for the large amount of tourists descending upon Europe for the Olympics. Not planning ahead to have this Frozen land open by the 2024 Olympics is an epic fail.

 

[Skold]

I think this is a great topic!

As @OrlandoGuy pointed out, Disney wants to spread capex out over as many quarters as they can in order to artificially increase quarterly profits, which in turn should lead to a rise in their stock price. These days, stock price has become a barometer for a company's success.

It shouldn't be, but it is. And here we are. Listen to any of Disney's earnings calls over the last few years, and you can't help but not see this.

On the flip side, there is hope. Comcast is aggressively investing in their parks, likely thinking that this will be a much better long-term strategy. In the end, it is short-term quarter-by-quarter earnings versus long term vision. It is for this reason that it is really important for theme park fans in general that Epic does well.

Edit: I stated opex rather than capex

 

[PerceptiveCoot]

While there's always hope, there seems to be a perennial culture issue at Disney where a competitor or shifting tides goad them into investing into their parks, right before a period of stagnation where the company is taken by some more pressing issue, only to be goaded yet again into investing in their parks when competition arises once again, or when Wall Street notes, huh, these parks are this company's only stable business. This is pretty much why DHS and AK and Galaxy's Edge exist.

So while I welcome Epic putting some fire under their pants, given the company's history over the past few decades, I have little hope that anything will sustain that fire unless there are wide-ranging institutional changes across the company that see the parks as the primary profit generators for the company and not a piggy bank for sports networks or cable or the meta verse or streaming or AI or bloated cinematic universes or bracelets with RFID tags or whatever is the shiny new tech/media venture of the week.

 

[HandsomePete]

I think it’s an interesting topic for here and what I’m about to say isn’t meant to be dismissive, but the reality is that practically nobody outside of a fan forum cares about the amount of time it takes to build an attraction except when there is a noticeable impact when parks turn into construction wall mazes (looking at you Epcot). The cash flow argument is not incorrect (describing it as artificially inflating quarters is a stretch though), but a few things that cash flow frankly is equal to in the “why are things so slow” pecking order are:

1) Genuine resource bottlenecks in WDI - they generally don’t substantially staff up and down as projects come and go, and a lot of the individual work is extremely specialized because practically nothing is off the shelf. For example, trying to open four trackless rides at roughly the same time (Rise x2, MMRR, and the BatB ride in Tokyo) caused…… issues. $1M per year doesn’t really buy you a lot of experienced full time people like project managers, art directors etc. - probably about 6 max.

2) Marketing - They have legitimate reasons (aka their targets) for advocating to space out new attractions.

3) Global investment - Disney is aggressively investing in its parks……. in countries not named the United States. The same thing happened from 2013-2016 when people got antsy and said nothing was being built at WDW / Disneyland Park. They’re building things that most of us will never ride because those ideas were approved on the back of domestic parks getting a ton of new rides. Disney has 10 parks to sustain plus two in Tokyo that use WDI resources, Universal has 6 and none that come close to touching the scale of a DL Park or Magic Kingdom. Same with the number of hotel rooms.

4) Mundane structural differences between Disney and Universal - Laundry facilities are not cheap. Roadwork is not cheap. Additional parking garages are not cheap. Maintaining or replacing bespoke technology platforms is not cheap (WDW cannot just buy Galaxy to run its ticketing). One of them has to build those and the other generally doesn’t, or gets funding from Orange County (thanks taxpayers!) when they do. All of this stuff soaks up capital dollars that could be going to building rides faster.

5) Managing depreciation - I’m not an accountant, but this does actually matter a bit.

Not planning ahead to have this Frozen land open by the 2024 Olympics is an epic fail.

Marketing would not view it this way - in 2024 the city will have scores of international visitors who will go to Disneyland irrespective of whether a new land is open and domestic visitation is probably hit or miss since everyone will be focused on the Olympics or travel will be more expensive that summer. Frozen can’t compete against a once in a lifetime sporting event, so you would absolutely tee that up for 2025 to reel everyone back in the next year.

 

[Skold]

I think it’s an interesting topic for here and what I’m about to say isn’t meant to be dismissive, but the reality is that practically nobody outside of a fan forum cares about the amount of time it takes to build an attraction except when there is a noticeable impact when parks turn into construction wall mazes (looking at you Epcot). The cash flow argument is not incorrect (describing it as artificially inflating quarters is a stretch though)...

Great post! I'd like to comment on three things in your (well written) first paragraph.

No one cares how long it takes except for us. Disney is counting on this.

EPCOT. Ugh, that is exactly the consequence of this stock-holder syndrome (see what I did there). No one notices but us sickos.

I don't think that saying that Disney is all about quarterly earning calls is a stretch. I'd like to read your view, and even hope that you can change my cynical view about why Disney does this.

We're all in the same boat here, we just want better parks.

 

[GA-MBIT]

Loving this so far, lots of really great points being made.

I definitely think it's good to admit that this is a very America-centric criticism at the moment. It absolutely doesn't help that of the six statewide parks, four could be considered actively underdeveloped. I wonder if Animal Kingdom was never built, would resources have been more accessible to the other gates? Is three Gates the sweet spot for a resort on the scale of Disney or Universal, or did Disney really need that extra capacity in the late 90s? Would it have been more wise to bulk up capacity in the other three parks instead before 2001 and 2008 knocked them off balance logistically?

 

[HandsomePete]

I don't think that saying that Disney is all about quarterly earning calls is a stretch. I'd like to read your view, and even hope that you can change my cynical view about why Disney does this.

They definitely care about quarterly results - my pushback was around calling it “artificially inflating” a quarter. If they took 12 months to build what could have been a six month project, Q1 and Q2 would look better but Q3 and Q4 would look worse because they would be done spending if it was completed in six months.

 

[JungleSkip]

The problem is Disney's parks across the globe are underbuilt outside of like, 3 of them (DL, MK, TDL), so their slowness feels worse than it does. Add onto the fact that there's basically nothing on the horizon domestically that's exciting, and it feels worse.

 

[UniversalRBLX]

Disney has been aggressive... outside the parks.

Disney Springs (3 massive garages with smart tech), a ridiculous upgrade in their infrastructure (Skyliner/Roads/Utilities), resort upgrades, new DVC resorts/buildings, etc.

Disney is very lucky to have a fanbase that will show up for whatever project they do and spend a boatload on merchandise/food/etc. If you judge the success of the parks by forums, you would think the parks are in a sad state, but every time I visit them it's impressive to see how quickly those impressions fade away.

Disney is strategically (somewhat) being smart about their construction timelines by spreading costs over time and opening attractions during ideal timeframes. But, they got caught pushing back Tron post-50th. If anything, Tron should have opened first with GOTG opening with the Epcot hub/Moana.

 

[JungleSkip]

Disney is very lucky to have a fanbase that will show up for whatever project they do and spend a boatload on merchandise/food/etc. If you judge the success of the parks by forums, you would think the parks are in a sad state, but every time I visit them it's impressive to see how quickly those impressions fade away.

I can't disagree more with your last sentence here. Do I have fun at their parks? yea, of course, they're theme parks and theme parks are fun. But when I'm there I'm just flabbergasted at how poorly the parks are built out compared to the guest load, and how much that affects overall guest satisfaction. There is just no justification possible for DHS and DAK being decades old and having less than 10 rides each. There's no justification for needing to wake up at 7AM to make ride reservations at each park because the company has refused to invest properly in their theme parks to make them more enjoyable.

 

[UniversalRBLX]

I can't disagree more with your last sentence here. Do I have fun at their parks? yea, of course, they're theme parks and theme parks are fun. But when I'm there I'm just flabbergasted at how poorly the parks are built out compared to the guest load, and how much that affects overall guest satisfaction. There is just no justification possible for DHS and DAK being decades old and having less than 10 rides each. There's no justification for needing to wake up at 7AM to make ride reservations at each park because the company has refused to invest properly in their theme parks to make them more enjoyable.

Should have been more specific, I meant the state of people's experiences to an extent, not the park. I completely agree with you that the parks are lacking in quantity/quality and they're lucky they've been getting away with it for the past few years.

BUT, people are still having fun and enjoying themselves. I was just trying to point out that sometimes fans/forums can take things to the extreme with some of the complaints sometimes.

 

[JungleSkip]

BUT, people are still having fun and enjoying themselves. I was just trying to point out that sometimes fans/forums can take things to the extreme with some of the complaints sometimes.

Well, yea, that's the nature of all online discourse. The only decision worse than the current one is the next one.

But I do think the current configuration of Disney's stateside parks, especially in Orlando, is turning more people off of ever returning than it ever has. Maybe they want that! I don't know. But considering it doesn't seem like much capacity help is coming in the next 1/2 decade, they're clearly okay with it.

 

[Jamesh22]

Great thread idea @Gambit

Are we not all missing one key point about why Disney construction has to run so slow/be spread out over so many years???

COST / BUDGETS.

If they didn't have to push the boundaries on everything and just concentrated on good attractions then maybe we would get them at a cost which could be capitalised over 1 or 2 years rather than 5+.
I would not be surprised if they are spending more on Moana at Epcot than Universal spent on Velociraptor for IOA.

 

[TheCodeMan95]

I can't disagree more with your last sentence here. Do I have fun at their parks? yea, of course, they're theme parks and theme parks are fun. But when I'm there I'm just flabbergasted at how poorly the parks are built out compared to the guest load, and how much that affects overall guest satisfaction. There is just no justification possible for DHS and DAK being decades old and having less than 10 rides each. There's no justification for needing to wake up at 7AM to make ride reservations at each park because the company has refused to invest properly in their theme parks to make them more enjoyable.

I have a bit of a difference in perspective here. My first time at Disney was in 2020 - and I haven't been back since. The parks are gorgeous and are definitely a blast to be in.. but I agree as far as them being built out.

I absolutely LOVED Animal Kingdom, but I was blown away by how little to do there was in that park. (and before anyone says anything, yes- I did every exploration trail)

 

[TheUniC6]

D23 2024 is going to be a make or break moment for those of us hoping to see any large scale additions to the Disney parks this decade. I would hope that they would at least commit to some or more of those "what if" concepts Josh has announced at D23 2022 and Destination D23 this year. After Tiana's comes online in late 2024 (considering this is a reskin, this should really be opening in summer 2024) the next major addition I can see coming to the Disney parks is the Avengers E ticket at DCA in the 2026-2027 timeframe.

Assuming they can work some miracles and commit to things like the Villains land behind Big Thunder and the Encanto and Indy concepts the earliest we could see those if we are lucky would be in the 2028-2029 timeframe. Anything else for the other parks like DHS would not be until 2030 or beyond. This is also from a WDW perspective, as if any of the above gets cloned to DLR it would be part of DL Forward and could take longer as it will likely be many years before the parking lots across Disneyland Drive are touched as they are things in the existing parks that need to be address like Hollywoodland and Tommorrowland.

Bottom line is something in management has to change. We should not be waiting to the mid 2030's-early 2040's to get things at parks like DCA and DHS.

 

[Cup_Of_Coffee]

I fear for Disney that they’re gonna be so behind that by the time Indy opens, Universal will have already opened Epic Universe, Zelda, and Pokémon even before beyond Big Thunder happens.

Really trying not to be a Universal fan boy but I don’t think Disney is ready for this.

 

[Mad Dog]

Disney can get by in the interim by adding things like new nighttime parades and shows. They don't take as long to develop as rides, and in some cases actually attract more attendance from Disney guests than a new ride does.