Well I'm home now I wonder how things are... ok. Hmm.
First please read
my first post again. To quote:
Let me restate and clarify four points I want to make:
1.) Avatar will be, at least, as nice as Carsland, the last major land added to a domestic park. Carsland is great.
2.) Avatar's theme park presence is directly tied to Universal and Harry Potter; Universal passed on the rights after Cameron's demands were too much, Disney saw it as an opportunity, and the rights were bought. Disney's ROI is based on the Harry Potter model.
3.) Avatar land's budget has ballooned as Cameron became more demanding, changes were made during production, and other WDI budget inflation. This makes #2 harder to accomplish.
4.) When Disney projects do not hit ROI it stunts growth in the parks. Everest and Mission:Space are two good examples posted in this thread.
If you do not care about future investment in the Disney parks, then you can ignore the price tag. As I stated above a project that does not recoup cost stunts growth. A Beastley Kingdome expansion was presented to WDW after Everest and they passed on it because of Everest brought in new guests but did not extend their stay or increase guest spending.
I do agree that other factors such as the economy, politics, ESPN, Iger, and more does play a significant role in capital allotment, too.
I'm sorry it seems we're jumping down your throat, that's not my intention. This is something I've been thinking and trying to put into words for a very long time. The dams sort of opened this week. As I noted above in #2 I do agree this is a response to Universal, but a 2011 Universal.
I see nothing defensive about what I'm saying. I do not see a single person here not saying this expansion doesn't appear very good, at least. But as I say in #2 you cannot uncouple the land with it's expectations and history. Many insiders have already said that a strong Avatar expansion will be used by UC to improve their projects.
I'm not sure what you're getting at in the first paragraph. As I said before it can be great but point #2-4 still stands.
As for Avatar fitting into Animal Kingdom, it still doesn't fit as a whole land. And it's far from a "perfect fit".
I do not think it would be built in Animal Kingdom as its whole land, for sure. If it was also Disney's own theme park creation it wouldn't be under the approval of Cameron (see point #3) and wouldn't have royalties being paid to third parties, hurting ROI (see point #2 & #4). But in the end playing a "what if" game for something that never had a chance of happening is fruitless in the end.
"Knee jerk" is a bad term and if I used it in the past I apologize. I think Disney didn't look at the correct things to justify this expansion, then combine it with WDI's budget bloating and Cameron's cost over runs it has really pushed the limits of what can be recouped. When this property was acquired three movies would be out by now, and we are no closer to them now as we were in 2011.
To quote Iger:
"Can't quantify" seems like they made a poor choice.
Every example you listed, excluding Cars, is one attraction. Cars has an established, large, merchandise presence and huge popularity with boys. I'll add one more to your list, Waterworld is bad but I hear the stunt show is amazing. Conversely I think The Simpsons is one of the greatest TV shows ever but I think the ride isn't that good. But Avatar is a LAND that costs over $800 million dollars that is sold on merch sales and sequels that haven't come out yet. That causes issues (points #2-#4).
It is not a hypocrite to say building a land on an IP that has totally stalled is not smart and guests will be hurt by it. Splash Mountain at Disneyland was budget engineered by having AAs from America Sings removed and installed in the attraction, that's a far cry from what Avatar is getting.
Please see points #2-4 again regarding the use of merchandise to justify this addition. Butterbeer was used in the books but at least it was used, nothing was used in the Avatar movies.
Please see all my points on how this land COULD be an issue for a successful and profitable theme parks division.
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Being critical of this expansion in no way means that it will be bad or that it cannot be successful in Disney's eyes. I've been a follower or in this industry for two decades so I'm calling out how I see this not meeting exceeding high internal requirements. For a comparison when the original Wizarding World opened I remember questioning several issues of it while at a fraternity party in college with a girl (this is why I'm single): Universal's branding as a theme park within a theme park (confusing) and Universal's ability to produce a land worthy of the franchise. I was proven wrong with Universal's ability to bring Harry Potter to life but was proven correct, again and again, with their poor marketing.
There's a few more points I want to make but they've escaped me as I've been running around today.