TEA 2016 Theme Park Index

[fryoj]

I'm not trying to refute anything as I agree with your overall point about numbers, but you say *only* 3 or 4 rides... the park only has 5.

That kinda was my point. 5 rides couldn't handle 30k people a day.

 

[bob albert]

That kinda was my point. 5 rides couldn't handle 30k people a day.

I remember seeing something about the average family of 4 does about 7 rides/attractions in magic kingdom in a day. I think guests get way less done that a lot of people assume.

 

[Latveria]

So in an average 12 hour park day the rare 100% efficiency capacity for rides would be 120,000. That means your average guest is only going to get to ride 4 rides if they are getting 30,000 guests daily. At 80% capacity you are looking at only riding three rides.

Does that sound like what really happens in that park to you?

I prefaced it saying these numbers were theoretical and rarely happens - no need to get triggered

 

[Nick]

I remember seeing something about the average family of 4 does about 7 rides/attractions in magic kingdom in a day. I think guests get way less done that a lot of people assume.

I know that's what Disney aims for and they claim is enough to make guests feel satisfied, but I'm not sure if it's what is actually achieved or not.

 

[fryoj]

I prefaced it saying these numbers were theoretical and rarely happens - no need to get triggered

Yeah, so the numbers aren't even as good as that. Hence why I put the 80% numbers. That means an average guest riding only getting to ride 4 rides would only be "theoretical and rarely happen". Or are you really trying to claim you can only ride 3 rides at DHS in a day?

Hard to get "triggered" when you are setting the trigger. I was pointing out why you believing that 30k wasn't realistic. You walked right into it.

 

[epcyclopedia]

TSMM is only like 1500 with the third track. It was barely moving 1000 guest an hour with the original two tracks.

And it's not 7 "rides" - it's things. That includes shows, meals, etc..

The number is 8, and it was brought up to 9 with the addition of FP. (MK and Epcot, other parks aren't the same because they physically cant be.)

How that plays out theoretically for Epcot:

1. Soarin
2. Spaceship Earth
3. Seas with Nemo
4. Electric Umbrella
5. Test Track
6. Shopping in World Showcase
7. Frozen Ever After
8. Le Cellier
9. Illuminations

If you spent the full day at Epcot you'd feel you got your money's worth with that itinerary.

 

[s8film40]

It's hard to do more than 3-4 things at DHS. Once you've used your fastpasses all the lines can be pretty long. The dining options have become fairly overcrowded and unpleasant. To me it's the one park that really makes you want to leave as quick as you can. I really think it's more like everyone crowds in gets in the rides or shows they wanted to do and gets out. Like I said I think the attendance could truthfully be much higher than it should be for that park. It's not a real park anymore, it's just an offsite overflow location for the other parks with a few attractions and shows.

 

[GAcoaster]

DHS feels considerably busier than IOA or USF on any given weekend so I'll believe 30k a day

DHS also has narrower pathways and is smaller in overall size than IoA or USF, so it may "feel" busier, but that doesn't mean it is, it's just more crowded.

Once again with these attendance reports I have to wonder how they count hard ticket events? If it's based on first clicks, what happens when someone goes to MK all day and then gets the ticket for Halloween or Christmas parties? What about HHN? There is no way to get really accurate numbers for any of this unless you work in one of the parks and have access to the real numbers.

I believe that a lot of the numbers are leaked to TEA from the people in positions to know (and maybe even by the parks themselves) despite the non-disclosure agreements the employees sign and the fact the parks "officially" don't release numbers. They all want to brag. They may (and probably do) inflate numbers.

 

[JoeCamel]

TSMM is only like 1500 with the third track. It was barely moving 1000 guest an hour with the original two tracks.

And it's not 7 "rides" - it's things. That includes shows, meals, etc..

The number is 8, and it was brought up to 9 with the addition of FP. (MK and Epcot, other parks aren't the same because they physically cant be.)

How that plays out theoretically for Epcot:

1. Soarin
2. Spaceship Earth
3. Seas with Nemo
4. Electric Umbrella
5. Test Track
6. Shopping in World Showcase
7. Frozen Ever After
8. Le Cellier
9. Illuminations

If you spent the full day at Epcot you'd feel you got your money's worth with that itinerary.

I never felt I got my money's worth at Le Cellier :tongue:

 

[s8film40]

I thought this explanation of the study might be relevant for any who haven't seen it.


One thing I would like to point out is they claim that misreporting will eventually show itself as trends continue. We can see this with Disney. A while back Disney began combining all parks into their reporting rather than reporting WDW/DL separately for instance. Obviously they were trying to hide something, most speculated it was declining numbers at WDW while DL was experiencing increases. Combining these obviously flattened everything out a bit and made things look better overall. Now a few years later there's really no way to hide the fact that numbers are down at WDW as they are now reporting numbers down across the board for all US Disney parks (not sure I believe that). These numbers however are likely still skewed and the declines last year were probably greater than reported. They've been desperately trying to squeeze more and more money out of guests and have been able to report minimal revenue increases. Meanwhile Universal has clearly seen dramatic increases due to their heavy investment. The Universal parks are very close to both DHS and DAK. Taking all this into account I think it's extremely likely that USF and/or IOA has surpassed DHS and/or DAK. If the trends as reported continue this year the Universal parks will start to close the gap for even Epcot and again if these numbers are skewed (which seems apparent) it's likely that one or more Universal parks may surpass Epcot within the next 1-3 years.

 

[King_K.]

DHS has been pulling less than 15-20k a day for a bit now.

Even when the park was fully open it would barely hit 20-25k most days. SWW, Cheerleading events and Osborne are what really packed that park over 30k.

 

[Parkscope Joe]

DHS has been pulling less than 15k a day for a few months now.

Even when the park was fully open it would barely hit 20-23k most days. SWW, Cheerleading events and Osborne are what really packed that park.

DHS and DAK are 7 million guests a year parks, nothing to sneeze at, but not on the level of MK, Epcot, and the Universal parks.

 

[brianlo]

The possible issue with Shanghai's attendance is threefold
*They charge considerably less for tickets, so their attendance ticket intake money per guest doesn't equal that of the USA parks
* Guest spending on food purchases has been disappointing from accounts.
* Guest purchases on merchandise have been disappointing from accounts
The major factor in business is revenue, more so than actual attendance numbers. Revenue & Spending per Guest is looking like it could be a long term issue.

Shanghai's ticket prices are relatively high honestly. 1 day tickets are priced higher than Tokyo, Hong Kong or Paris.

Sure 75 USD doesn't compare to the 1 day peak MK 119$, but you have to look at the whole picture. How many of those guests actually are forking out that kind of daily rate? I'd estimate an insignificant number. Most guests are on discounted multi-day tickets or AP's.

Shanghai on the other hand offers a whopping 5% discount for a two day multi ticket. There was no AP.

I paid 75 USD for each day in SHDL, as a Canadian with WDW's current at par offer I am paying 40USD a day on a 7-day ticket.

If WDW as a whole is making significantly more than 75USD per park day per guest, in ticket admissions, I'd be shocked.

DHS top 5% of revenue would surely include the 4 days ticket holders already, who honestly is visiting DHS on anything less than a 4 day ticket? The median is probably on a 7-day 58.85 rate and the bottom half is made up of AP's or those of us who can seemingly do even better rates. All of which is to say DHS likely is making 2/3rds at best of Shanghai's ticket median price.

 

[Frank Drackman]

Yeah, I guess I do not get what attendance figures tell you. I mean AP folks pay once a year, does attendance count if there is a day that is 80% AP and 20% one day tickets?

I mean, I guess it helps figure guest spend, but not a lot else. Anyway, every time I glance at the #'s these guys publish, all I think of is that WDW does not sell as many hoppers as folks think...or as stated above, there are two parks that have no attendance w/o multi-day discounts.

 

[bob albert]

Shanghai's ticket prices are relatively high honestly. 1 day tickets are priced higher than Tokyo, Hong Kong or Paris.

Sure 75 USD doesn't compare to the 1 day peak MK 119$, but you have to look at the whole picture. How many of those guests actually are forking out that kind of daily rate? I'd estimate an insignificant number. Most guests are on discounted multi-day tickets or AP's.

Shanghai on the other hand offers a whopping 5% discount for a two day multi ticket. There was no AP.

I paid 75 USD for each day in SHDL, as a Canadian with WDW's current at par offer I am paying 40USD a day on a 7-day ticket.

If WDW as a whole is making significantly more than 75USD per park day per guest, in ticket admissions, I'd be shocked.

DHS top 5% of revenue would surely include the 4 days ticket holders already, who honestly is visiting DHS on anything less than a 4 day ticket? The median is probably on a 7-day 58.85 rate and the bottom half is made up of AP's or those of us who can seemingly do even better rates. All of which is to say DHS likely is making 2/3rds at best of Shanghai's ticket median price.

You pay $280 for a 7 day ticket? Disney must love to punish non Florida, non foreign guests.

 

[Mad Dog]

You pay $280 for a 7 day ticket? Disney must love to punish non Florida, non foreign guests.

Disney greatly increased the pricing for WDW multi day tickets this past year, so they're way more than that.
Pricing for WDW multi day tickets
4 Day ticket.............$87.50 per day...Total $350 plus tax
5 day ticket..............$74 per day......Total $375 plus tax
6 day ticket...............$65 per day....Total 390 plus tax
7 day ticket...............$58 per day.....Total $406 plus tax

Note: These are non park hopper tickets. Park hoppers are somewhat higher.

 

[brianlo]

Disney greatly increased the pricing for WDW multi day tickets this past year, so they're way more than that.
Pricing for WDW multi day tickets
4 Day ticket.............$87.50 per day...Total $350 plus tax
5 day ticket..............$74 per day......Total $375 plus tax
6 day ticket...............$65 per day....Total 390 plus tax
7 day ticket...............$58 per day.....Total $406 plus tax

Note: These are non park hopper tickets. Park hoppers are somewhat higher.

I think @bob albert was saying the opposite, he was surprised at the discount they give to Canadian residents compared to US based residents who don't live in Florida and get squat.

We didn't used to have that sort of discount pre-2015, but our dollar dropped by 30% so it's not atypical for big American corporations to offer us "at par" discounts to perk up Canadian tourism.

 

[zg44]

It's also important to remember that the Shanghai DL (and in a few years Universal Beijing) numbers will be somewhat opaque due to the ownership/management structure.

Disney owns 40-50% of Shanghai's ownership structure as well as 50-60% of Shanghai's management structure; how the payouts are divided in that will matter.

Universal will own 30-40% of Beijing's ownership structure as well as 60-70% of Beijing's management structure; how the payouts are divided in that will matter.

Either way the parks will be very profitable.