TEA/AECOM Attendance Report 2022

[wutisgood]

I would also like to remind everyone of the political climate in Florida. Convention centers are losing cons, tourist centers are down up and down the state. There are issued travel advisories for many people. Not saying that’s the only thing that’s happening; most of what Jarrod said is also true.

I do find it fascinating that Disney’s attendance is what’s dominating the news cycle and not the realities of Florida.

I think Disney is minimally affected by tourists on the basis of political views at this time.. People just are unlikely to change their vacation habits voluntarily. I think it it just more about inflation and the money running out combined with a lack of incentives that are good enough at the parks. Disney hasn't really done cheap convention tickets for years now to as a source to pump numbers anyways.

I think Disney raised prices so much during covid that they are afraid to lower them enough to push the volume they really want because they would spook investors too hard.

I at one point considered moving to Florida but the political climate, insurance costs, and housing compared to low wages make it is now one of the most unattractive places in America to move to unless you are not already wealthy and don't work. When you are younger you want to move to a place you think has some kind of positive future or investment. Florida ain't it.

I think the real problem for Disney is going to be finding workers especially since so many of them currently are progressive and lgbtq. And while the Orlando market might be progressive, Florida is having problems staffing teachers because of the new laws which will affect Orlando area teachers to also leave.

 

[Nick]

I'm not yet convinced of this theory that once Epic opens in 2025 that Disney will suddenly see it's numbers crash & burn. I think Epic will bring a lot of people to Orlando... and those people will also go to Disney. Where Disney is in the most danger of seeing hurt is with DAK, but that's about it from my view. If I was a tourist and had to skip one WDW park, that's the easy one to skip.

 

[UniversalRBLX]

I'm not yet convinced of this theory that once Epic opens in 2025 that Disney will suddenly see it's numbers crash & burn. I think Epic will bring a lot of people to Orlando... and those people will also go to Disney. Where Disney is in the most danger of seeing hurt is with DAK, but that's about it from my view. If I was a tourist and had to skip one WDW park, that's the easy one to skip.

Yes, with increased prices people will have to cut a few parks from their trips or do “all or nothing” with Universal or Disney.

DAK, USF and to an extent Epcot, will be fighting hunger games style

 

[GAcoaster]

I really think Epic will be the tipping point for more guests where they go from Disney vacation with a few days at Universal, to Universal vacation with a few days at Disney. Universal's hotel pricing is much better than Disney in terms of bang for the buck, and the third theme park will make it even more appealing to stay at Universal for the duration of your vacation. As it stands, I think age is a big factor for those decisions, with the parents of young kids and seniors making the Disney choice, parents of older kids and younger adults making the Universal choice.

Disney will always be the top draw-- Universal will continue to erode Disney's market share though, unless Disney really starts investing in new attractions. With all the things converging right now-- Disney in flux with management & possibly ownership/fighting with the district authorities & state/cutting spending company wide to make it more attractive as a takeover, and Universal aggressively investing by the middle of the next decade the whole balance of Orlando tourism could be very different.

 

[Mad Dog]

I really think Epic will be the tipping point for more guests where they go from Disney vacation with a few days at Universal, to Universal vacation with a few days at Disney. Universal's hotel pricing is much better than Disney in terms of bang for the buck, and the third theme park will make it even more appealing to stay at Universal for the duration of your vacation. As it stands, I think age is a big factor for those decisions, with the parents of young kids and seniors making the Disney choice, parents of older kids and younger adults making the Universal choice.

Disney will always be the top draw-- Universal will continue to erode Disney's market share though, unless Disney really starts investing in new attractions. With all the things converging right now-- Disney in flux with management & possibly ownership/fighting with the district authorities & state/cutting spending company wide to make it more attractive as a takeover, and Universal aggressively investing by the middle of the next decade the whole balance of Orlando tourism could be very different.

I agree with many of your points. I'm betting that WDW is deluding themselves into thinking Epic opening will be beneficial to their attendance like opening of Hogsmeade was. But this is a different Universal than then, stronger and more visible to the general public. Yes, Disney has finally opened a lot of new, and mostly good, attractions in response to Potter. But they're going to have a new attraction lag for a few years like they did during the first ten years of this century. Epic will bring more visitors to Orlando, but not necessarily to WDW. Disney will remain dominant in the market, they're too big not to, but I'm guessing they lose a few more percentage points to an awakening Universal. Disney will need to add a few quick fixes, like night parades & entertainment shows, to stay from flattening attendance, since there's no new attractions in the pipeline.

 

[OhHaiInternet95]

I think Disney is minimally affected by tourists on the basis of political views at this time.. People just are unlikely to change their vacation habits voluntarily. I think it it just more about inflation and the money running out combined with a lack of incentives that are good enough at the parks. Disney hasn't really done cheap convention tickets for years now to as a source to pump numbers anyways.

I think Disney raised prices so much during covid that they are afraid to lower them enough to push the volume they really want because they would spook investors too hard.

I at one point considered moving to Florida but the political climate, insurance costs, and housing compared to low wages make it is now one of the most unattractive places in America to move to unless you are not already wealthy and don't work. When you are younger you want to move to a place you think has some kind of positive future or investment. Florida ain't it.

I think the real problem for Disney is going to be finding workers especially since so many of them currently are progressive and lgbtq. And while the Orlando market might be progressive, Florida is having problems staffing teachers because of the new laws which will affect Orlando area teachers to also leave.

I could easily be out of touch with what the majority thinks but I believe this summer is going to be the turning point in people finding FL, TX and AZ attractive for the weather.

 

[GAcoaster]

I could easily be out of touch with what the majority thinks but I believe this summer is going to be the turning point in people finding FL, TX and AZ attractive for the weather.

I think you're right, if this really is the "new normal" summer will be just too unbearable for many in the sun belt. We may see that translates to decreased summer attendance and increased winter attendance. I know I would plan an Orlando trip in December/January/February but never in summer. It's just too hot most of the time to enjoy.

 

[Nick]

I could easily be out of touch with what the majority thinks but I believe this summer is going to be the turning point in people finding FL, TX and AZ attractive for the weather.

I was going to bring this up. It’s 5 pm, about 2 hours past the hottest it got today, and the feels like is still at 104.

I was talking to some guests today from the UK and they said that they’ve been here in the summer before and they were prepared for the heat and fine with it. This heat is unbearable and not something that can be prepared for until you experience it. Another group was essentially saying the same thing. I really think the summers are going to start being dead zones for the parks with people wanting to avoid the insane weather. This isn’t just a heat wave, this is Florida’s reality.

I’ve been someone who has said in the past that I’d rather be hot than cold which is why I’m fine with the summer weather. But this summer has me questioning that. I was just in both Boston and LA and weather was beautiful in both places. I’m getting closer and closer to pulling the trigger on moving to Massachusetts every day.

 

[wutisgood]

Yes, with increased prices people will have to cut a few parks from their trips or do “all or nothing” with Universal or Disney.

DAK, USF and to an extent Epcot, will be fighting hunger games style

Universal is expanding the overall market with the new park. The reason they are doing so is because they are taking the demand of Disney's' refusal to build real expansions. As long as universal sets their prices right they will soak up the people turned away or out of budget at Disney. These are not people cutting out Disney days, They are people who are planning whole vacations upfront based on who is offering the best value.

 

[MrRoamer]

I'm gonna jump in with my own thoughts on this but some echo a lot of what has been said
Factors impacting a trip to Disney (many include Orlando), and most of them are things we have been saying for years but never really directly moved the needle in a noticeable way, it feels oddly similar to how out of nowhere we are facing major issues with our climate

I'm not saying how much impact any of these items have but at some point its death by a thousand cuts

• Park Pricing has continued going up across the board (All Parks)
• Food Pricing has continued going up with (in general) portions and quality going down
• Hotel Pricing has continued going up across the board
• Lodging Availability has decreased
• Add On Pricing has continued popping up everywhere
• Perks were discontinued or minimized
• AP's were used as a threat to keep people locked in and also prevented many from renewing, so they just never came back
• Headaches around the Reservation and Virtual Queue (Agree Genie+ may not be obvious to all but I would say most people have heard this)
• Everybody came during Covid or as soon as FL started reopening and don't want to come again
• Prices for other travel and entertainment has gone down
• High Gas Prices
• Inflation
• People that don't support Florida politics
• People that do support Florida politics and don't support Disney because of them
• People believing it isn't safe here, Pulse and Parkland weren't too long ago and we have Nazis on the news at alarmingly common rates
• Customer uncertainty around the job market
• Business uncertainty around the job market
• Work from Home
• People started going at times other than Summer
• It Be Hot As All Get Out
• Many people's homes are facing issue due to increased weather issues
• Universal Expansions finally starting to take away days from Disney
• Relatively low amount of new stuff and lots of construction walls
• Media and Political Echo Chambers talking about the multitude of issues

 

[fryoj]

Attendance declines are not unique to Florida or Theme parks for that matter. Cedar Fair, Six Flags, and Sea are also seeing declines. Other entertainment venues are also down this summer. People are broke. Entertainment is the first thing to get cut back. The Orlando parks just have this magnified because they are the highest priced and there's the added travel cost. Hard to plan a $2k+ trip to see Mickey when a trip to the grocery store can be hundreds of dollars.

 

[Nick]

On top of everything that has been mentioned, there was also something that got announced and people began buying tickets for late last year that has dominated the Entertainment news cycle this Spring/Summer: Taylor Swift’s The Eras Tour.

Make no mistake, the crossover between Disney adults/Disney Families and Taylor Swifts fan base is quite a large, as well. With the average ticket holder who bought straight from Ticketmaster spending $1300 between tickets, hotel, food, merch, wardrobe for concert, etc, that’s a lot of money right there to be spending on entertainment (and those are the people who were lucky enough to get tickets without without going through a reseller). That takes away pretty much most vacation money remaining for most people to go on a theme park vacation.

Death By A Thousand Cuts, indeed.

 

[wutisgood]

I would say the big reason I come to Orlando is how absolutely dirt-cheap the hotels and flights are. As long as I feel safe in the Orlando area I will probably keep coming. The people in Orlando are not the same as much of the rest of Florida Orlando can be one of the cheapest places for many to visit if they know how to budget which is why there are so many cheap flights for people in the know.

Time is money as they say and there is just a significant amount of people that wont consider offsite for Disney or universal even if it is affordable because they just want a package price with easier access even if rideshare is still less money on their trip. I also remember how Disney just having payment plans went pass sales go through the roof because people just look at short term costs.

My next trip for universal, sea world, and MK Halloween is going to be about 600 with food, flights, and lodging with the universal early entry with a hotel in walking distance to universal splitting with another person. Halloween early is a great value.

 

[UNIrd]

I will add, treading lightly as always with this subject on here, I think politics on both side is also a factor, probably minor, but difficult to measure. And it shows the tie-in between the parks and films divisions. WDW threw together a pop-up Frozen attraction and show in a couple months to drive attendance to DHS after that film was a hit. Pirates suddenly had routine wait times over 10 minutes after Jack Sparrow hit the screen. We routinely get characters from hit films out in the park. If Lightyear or Strange World had been a billion-dollar hit, we'd see the parks capitalize on it; it's not crazy to think the lack of that ability is another factor in lower crowds.

It's taken Disney almost 2 years... let that sink in... 2 years to get a Mirabel meet & greet in Disney World after that film hit and became essentially a cultural phenomenon.

2 YEARS... for what is essentially the bare minimum they should offer for ANY film of theirs, let alone one that has the type of impact they've been trying to capture again since Frozen as you mentioned.

WDW management is so out of touch. It's a miracle the parks have been doing as well as they have been this entire time considering just how inane some of the decisions they've been making.

 

[Jake S]

WDW management is so out of touch. It's a miracle the parks have been doing as well as they have been this entire time considering just how inane some of the decisions they've been making.

I’ll just jump in here to very gently note that the Walt Disney World parks are very fun and despite their flaws are still nice places to visit for many guests.

 

[snayberry]

It's taken Disney almost 2 years... let that sink in... 2 years to get a Mirabel meet & greet in Disney World after that film hit and became essentially a cultural phenomenon.

2 YEARS... for what is essentially the bare minimum they should offer for ANY film of theirs, let alone one that has the type of impact they've been trying to capture again since Frozen as you mentioned.

WDW management is so out of touch. It's a miracle the parks have been doing as well as they have been this entire time considering just how inane some of the decisions they've been making.

I think you're the one that is out of touch. Disney has more than a big enough following that loves going to the parks. Are you not in any of the Disney Facebook groups? It's no miracle that their pakrs are doing as well as they are, even with the price hikes. I've found myself going more to Disney lately than Universal and I have passes to both.

 

[UniversalRBLX]

I've found myself going more to Disney lately than Universal and I have passes to both.

Same, parks will always be busy and popular, and I've found myself at WDW more often than UOR this year solely because Universal has operational issues to address since the parks reopened. (and it's cheaper to eat at WDW for higher quality & better service)

I think most of us fans are just disgruntled at the lack of investment in the parks because they can do great things, but they just won't do it.

 

[Mad Dog]

Same, parks will always be busy and popular, and I've found myself at WDW more often than UOR this year solely because Universal has operational issues to address since the parks reopened. (and it's cheaper to eat at WDW for higher quality & better service)

I think most of us fans are just disgruntled at the lack of investment in the parks because they can do great things, but they just won't do it.

Yes, I've found the same and have been visiting Disney and skipping Universal until they get their mgt. act together. That's the opposite of how I previously visited. I'm expecting Universal operations to improve by the second half of 2024, so I'll probably go back then. But both resorts need to get a grip on pricing. They went too far taking advantage of the post covid boom.

 

[OLSinFLA]

Same, parks will always be busy and popular, and I've found myself at WDW more often than UOR this year solely because Universal has operational issues to address since the parks reopened. (and it's cheaper to eat at WDW for higher quality & better service)

I think most of us fans are just disgruntled at the lack of investment in the parks because they can do great things, but they just won't do it.

I dunno where you find cheaper or better food at Disney, unless it's a specialty restaurant at EPCOT.

 

[wutisgood]

I dunno where you find cheaper or better food at Disney, unless it's a specialty restaurant at EPCOT.

I found universal quick service to be significantly more on average than Disney quick service. Disney has been cheaper than some of the places at home in the past year. I actually used the word "deal" a few times last I was at Disney shockingly. That being said sit down restaurants are also little to no more money around universal for many places so it depends where you eat.