Universal Orlando Resort Expansion (Part 1)

[Andysol]

Knowing that fans were filled with anticipation, Universal rushed to release the concept art for their next new park even though some of the details were still sketchy...

*Tries hard to decipher a hidden picture within the scribble*

So the key to building/expanding parks is the Olympics...?

....so when does Orlando host them...lol

No kidding, right?

And I don’t understand the purpose- it seems rather dumb.
Considering the entire country is building and prepping for the Olympics w/ new hotels, refurbishment of tourism spots, etc- construction costs are at a premium.

Additionally, it’s not like revamping your theme park for that year will bring in the tourism crowds- the Olympic guests are coming; regardless. Take TDR, for example- Why not open the expansions 2 years before the olympics- capture the massive local crowds seeing the new attractions, and then focus on refurbs and show quality of existing attractions the year prior to when tourists get there. You get 3 years of massive attendance instead of 1. All while having cheaper construction costs due to demand.

It truly makes no sense to me, from an economics stance.

 

[Dinoman96]

Knowing that fans were filled with anticipation, Universal rushed to release the concept art for their next new park even though some of the details were still sketchy...

Obviously Universal Creative is making up for the demise of Dueling Dragons/Dragon Challenge and is building an all new dueling coaster with 5x the tracks.

 

[JungleSkip]

I don't intend for this post to be political, but we might want to keep an eye on the alleged trade tariffs Trump is going to put forth today. Many think they won't be great for the economy.

If that's the case, I'd worry about any big projects announced or otherwise going forward at UOR and WDW

 

[Mad Dog]

Orlando’s getting into the driverless car game?


“Hop into the the Optimus Prius and enter your desired address. It should be a pleasant drive this evening. UNTIL SOMETHING GOES TERRIBLY WRONG.”

Our area, Pittsburgh, has been the central area for driverless technology, partly because of the difficulty with the road terrain here, but also due to working in conjunction with Carnegie Mellon's excellent software & robotics programs. Both Uber & Ford have their technology & test drive centers located here. Issues have been so common and prevalent with the technology, that both have ceased testing on city streets, and now only use the test facilities. This is still pie in the sky hopes technology and it possibly may never achieve it's lofty predictions. There's lots of propaganda from industry groups out there. It's way too early to predict, at this stage of the game, what's going to happen. There's also legal obstacles to be crossed on this.

 

[Nick]

I don't intend for this post to be political, but we might want to keep an eye on the alleged trade tariffs Trump is going to put forth today. Many think they won't be great for the economy.

If that's the case, I'd worry about any big projects announced or otherwise going forward at UOR and WDW

Let's wait to cross that bridge until it's built.

 

[zg44]

*Tries hard to decipher a hidden picture within the scribble*



No kidding, right?

And I don’t understand the purpose- it seems rather dumb.
Considering the entire country is building and prepping for the Olympics w/ new hotels, refurbishment of tourism spots, etc- construction costs are at a premium.

Additionally, it’s not like revamping your theme park for that year will bring in the tourism crowds- the Olympic guests are coming; regardless. Take TDR, for example- Why not open the expansions 2 years before the olympics- capture the massive local crowds seeing the new attractions, and then focus on refurbs and show quality of existing attractions the year prior to when tourists get there. You get 3 years of massive attendance instead of 1. All while having cheaper construction costs due to demand.

It truly makes no sense to me, from an economics stance.

The economic rationale as I understand it is that the park operators and their partners (Nintendo, Tokyo, Beijing, Paris) want to take advantage of the short-term tourism boost from the Olympics as well as the long-term boost of expanded capacity of infrastructure including travel capacity and hotel rooms.

Basically, they want years 1-3 of the expansion to receive those boosts as a justification for the outlay instead of building it too far in advance. That's the motivation for the partners (Nintendo et al.) to want similar timing on the expansions as well as the Olympics.

I don't intend for this post to be political, but we might want to keep an eye on the alleged trade tariffs Trump is going to put forth today. Many think they won't be great for the economy.

If that's the case, I'd worry about any big projects announced or otherwise going forward at UOR and WDW

Universal and Disney are building for the next 20-30 years.

Remember that the first phase of Harry Potter was built during the worst recession in the US in 70 years. The other Harry Potter phases were built in the post-recession recovery.

Any time you're building a project like this, the project is relatively recession-proof because you're building it as a multi-decade profitable enterprise during which you expect recessions to happen.

I'll say this right now, it's reasonable for us to expect a recession before or during the building of the 3rd park. Why? It's already been 10 years since 2008, and if the next park is being built around 2019-2022, then that timeline would coincide with the longest economic expansion in US history if a recession hasn't happened by then..., and all economic expansions come to an end at some point due to imbalances that develop during growth phases.

So the projects are basically "recession proof" because they're going to be profitable over a 20-30 year period regardless of recessions.

 

[JungleSkip]

The economic rationale as I understand it is that the park operators and their partners (Nintendo, Tokyo, Beijing, Paris) want to take advantage of the short-term tourism boost from the Olympics as well as the long-term boost of expanded capacity of infrastructure including travel capacity and hotel rooms.

Basically, they want years 1-3 of the expansion to receive those boosts as a justification for the outlay instead of building it too far in advance. That's the motivation for the partners (Nintendo et al.) to want similar timing on the expansions as well as the Olympics.


Universal and Disney are building for the next 20-30 years.

Remember that the first phase of Harry Potter was built during the worst recession in the US in 70 years. The other Harry Potter phases were built in the post-recession recovery.

Any time you're building a project like this, the project is relatively recession-proof because you're building it as a multi-decade profitable enterprise during which you expect recessions to happen.

I'll say this right now, it's reasonable for us to expect a recession before or during the building of the 3rd park. Why? It's already been 10 years since 2008, and if the next park is being built around 2019-2022, then that timeline would coincide with the longest economic expansion in US history if a recession hasn't happened by then..., and all economic expansions come to an end at some point due to imbalances that develop during growth phases.

So the projects are basically "recession proof" because they're going to be profitable over a 20-30 year period regardless of recessions.

I certainly hope you're right. But Comcast has only been in charge during the fat times. I worry about their reaction to the lean ones.

 

[zg44]

I certainly hope you're right. But Comcast has only been in charge during the fat times. I worry about their reaction to the lean ones.

Yeah that's certainly a fair point that Comcast has only experienced the massive growth phase of the parks post-Harry Potter.

I would say though that they've experienced the ups and downs of the media businesses over the past decade, so they know these businesses experience economic swings.

As far as Univeral Orlando goes generally, with Nintendo, the 3rd park, and somewhere in the range of 10,000 hotel rooms coming online over the next decade, it should be an extended boom-time for the resort.

It's really difficult for me to see any sort of downturn for Universal Orlando happening over the next decade regardless of US/global economic conditions.

 

[jseal777]

Let's wait to cross that bridge until it's built.

Universal is gonna build the bridge and Stan thomas is gonna pay for it

 

[peteralt]

Universal’s new site also provides an incentive for the city to come up with an efficient transportation system thru out the tourist areas and improve international drive.

What they really need is transit from OIA to the OCCC, with a stop in downtown, and possibly all the way to Disney and maybe even Tampa. Projects like this have started and stopped countless times. If the government can’t do it, maybe do it in a private/public partnership with Brightline or some other company that had shown a history of getting things done.

 

[peteralt]

Also, I’m surprised no one has mentioned recent announcements that may factor into the equation: Comcast’s bid for Sky and Disney Paris’ multi-billion dollar expansion announcement. With Disney spending billions and billions each on projects to expand their current parks world-wide and the Fox buyout, I have a feeling Comcast is just getting warmed up by acquiring Sky. I’m expecting more land acquisitions in Orlando and billions of dollars in new construction projects on par with Disney to compete.

 

[Scott W.]

Also, I’m surprised no one has mentioned recent announcements that may factor into the equation: Comcast’s bid for Sky and Disney Paris’ multi-billion dollar expansion announcement. With Disney spending billions and billions each on projects to expand their current parks world-wide and the Fox buyout, I have a feeling Comcast is just getting warmed up by acquiring Sky. I’m expecting more land acquisitions in Orlando and billions of dollars in new construction projects on par with Disney to compete.

It's been discussed here:

Disney and FOX Merging Thread (Update Dec 14) | Page 19 | Inside Universal Forums

 

[Doug A.]

What they really need is transit from OIA to the OCCC, with a stop in downtown, and possibly all the way to Disney and maybe even Tampa. Projects like this have started and stopped countless times. If the government can’t do it, maybe do it in a private/public partnership with Brightline or some other company that had shown a history of getting things done.

If I remember correctly it was Disney that essentially killed this project every time because they wanted it to only go to WDW. Somebody correct me if I am wrong but that’s I what I seem to remember.

It would be nice to have another means of transportation from airport to the parks especially Universal. Maybe someday this project will get done.

 

[GoUCFKnights]

If I remember correctly it was Disney that essentially killed this project every time because they wanted it to only go to WDW. Somebody correct me if I am wrong but that’s I what I seem to remember.

It would be nice to have another means of transportation from airport to the parks especially Universal. Maybe someday this project will get done.

No, Disney hasn't killed any rail projects recently. It fought (unsuccessfully) to change the route of the HSR to avoid I-Drive and follow 417 instead to Disney, even offering to move the Magical Express onto the trail before Rick Scott killed the project. More recently the Maglev proposed from OCCC to the airport was killed by the airport as they believed it would cannibalize rental car revenues.

The insane expansion cost for Sunrail to the airport has that project DOA.

 

[UniversalRBLX]

Why not both?

A Disney-Universal-OCCC-MCO system is all Orlando needs. Have a smaller I-Drive transport system (trolley or just busses) be connected to the OCCC Station.

 

[quinnmac000]

Why not both?

A Disney-Universal-OCCC-MCO system is all Orlando needs. Have a smaller I-Drive transport system (trolley or just busses) be connected to the OCCC Station.

Disney doesn't want it to go to other places.

 

[Scott W.]

Disney doesn't want it to go to other places.

They will also heavily oppose any transport between the airport and OCCC because of it's close proximity to the new land as well.

 

[Magic-Man]

Revamped List of Potential Third Park IP's: March 2018 Edition

- Nintendo (Mushroom Kingdom, DK, Pokemon)
- Middle Earth (Needs license, includes LOTR and Hobbit)
- DreamWorks (HTTYD, Kung Fu Panda, Shrek, Madagascar, Boss Baby, Trolls, Puss In Boots, Croods, Captain Underpants)
- Star Trek (Can be part of a broader Sci-Fi land)
- Jurassic World (possible, but not likely)
- Universal Monsters
- The Wizard of Oz (possible, but not likely)
- Illumination (Sing, Secret Life Of Pets)
- DC (Needs license, possible-but not likely)
- Pacific Rim
- Godzilla (Needs license)

This list does not include any original land possibilities.

 

[jseal777]

Revamped List of Potential Third Park IP's: March 2018 Edition

- Nintendo (Mushroom Kingdom, DK, Pokemon)
- Middle Earth (Needs license, includes LOTR and Hobbit)
- DreamWorks (HTTYD, Kung Fu Panda, Shrek, Madagascar, Boss Baby, Trolls, Puss In Boots, Croods, Captain Underpants)
- Star Trek (Can be part of a broader Sci-Fi land)
- Jurassic World (possible, but not likely)
- Universal Monsters
- The Wizard of Oz (possible, but not likely)
- Illumination (Sing, Secret Life Of Pets)
- DC (Needs license, possible-but not likely)
- Pacific Rim
- Godzilla (Needs license)

This list does not include any original land possibilities.

Would the monsters not be considered an original land?

I would love the monsters and another original land to be included in this park, but it seems IP’s are the way to go now.

 

[Ultranel]

I certainly hope you're right. But Comcast has only been in charge during the fat times. I worry about their reaction to the lean ones.

I don’t believe this has anything to do with another recession, (That’s something we will eventually do to ourselves again, like we always have) the problem here is the possible deficiency of steel (and aluminum, but we are talking coasters/rides here). Canada, Mexico, EU and China already are talking about retaliation and I personally support them 110% for standing against stupidity, but the question is, if there is a big drop on available steel in the USA then that definitely could raise prices due to demand. Also let’s keep in mind what has priority here, US Car Industries or Theme Parks?

But that was DT on a tantrum, probably he’ll say “I never said that, fake news!” by next week.