Theatrical Future/PVOD Thread

[jtsalien]

I mean, this is all theoretical and it may not be likely, but if theaters are struggling, lowering the cost of entry (by a $1 or so) could be a strategy to get more people in the door and someone like AT&T, who would own AMC, would be better financially for it.


Yes, but since they would be keeping 100% of their own money, they may be able to work out an agreement where other studios get a bit more than is currently normal to incentivize them. Again, all theoretical, and probably unrealistic. But I just don't see movie theaters going away completely. Someone will pick them up once they run out of money (and will be less stubborn about the stupid 90 day window and hopefully be forward thinking and willing to work with the studios more to get the windows down to around 25 days. I think the 17 that Universal has on their AMC deal is too short and actually incentivizes people staying home.

Who knows how profitable or affordable it would have been long term, but AMC A-List was a game changer for people who do like going to the movies. If you lived in anywhere near a major city it was a steal. I think that's the other future of this. Some kind of subscription model for the people who want it, and they hopefully get to leech of people who don't abuse it like Planet Fitness. Not just more affordable to take a family of 4, but more affordable to go more frequently.

 

[awhen]

Yes, the tent pole strategy is kinda what i'm speaking to. Literally the only thing I ever go to the movie for (and I would normally go about 8-10 times per year).

I know there's good stories being told, we're living in a golden age of TV. But there's so much garbage out there that sometimes I just wish there was less tbh. Over the years, i've spent hours of my life just scrolling through Netflix trying to find something worth my time, only to just decide "nah, i'll just go to bed".

You probably missed out on something.

Last year we had about nine individual Billion dollar grossing films (and then a few other films around $800M), so not exactly sure what you're talking about there. Yes, mid-level films have been struggling in theaters for quite some time now, but tentpoles have been thriving.

Were they struggling relative to budget and expectation?

Edit: made a comparison with bad dates.

 

[Nick]

Outside of Disney, they really haven't. WB has largely been struggling due to their reliance on tentpoles. Universal is successful because they *don't* focus on them anymore. Disney is the only studio that can rely on them, and even then RISE OF SKYWALKER was seen as a disappointment event though it made over a billion.

The idea that tentpoles are an unlimited well of wealth just doesn't pan out. Unless you're Disney, who has made it work for now.

I never said that tentpoles are an unlimited source of wealth, but someone needs to put the Studio execs in check because just look at next year's movie slate. If it weren't for COVID, i'd say that there's well over 10 movies that could make over a billion on that slate. And no one wants to just drop them onto streaming because they spent way too much making the movies.

What studios will have to do is get more creative in making movies and have lesser budgets.

The Mandalorian stagecraft technology is a great model to follow for the future. 4 hours of that show cost them $100M and the show looked great. One could deduct from that that a 2 hour movie may only need to cost around $50-75 million and it would look pretty much as good as all the blockbusters we currently have anyway. That way, they aren't sinking so much money into these movies and in the end, it makes the decision much easier to drop something from theatrical to streaming, as it's probably not even really a loss at that point due to the subscribers you would gain for your service.

Hollywood needs to move away from the $200-$250M overpriced blockbuster if they plan to fully move from theatrical to streaming/PVOD over time is basically the point.

Were they struggling relative to budget and expectation?

Some did less than expected (TROS), sure, but some did MORE than expected (Endgame, Aladdin, The Lion King, Joker). It's all on word of mouth, really. But were they all profitable? Yes.

 

[Disneyhead]

Everybody who keeps talking about miserable theater experiences are doing it wrong.

 

[Nick]

Everybody who keeps talking about miserable theater experiences are doing it wrong.

Agreed.

The only time the audience has made a movie worse for me in recent memory was on my second time viewing Toy Story 4 last summer. A kid started crying. Normally though, I go to late night showings where no kids ever are (or matinees when they'd be in school) and I get a nice center view seat in the Dolby theater at Disney Springs. If any of you think watching at home can beat watching a movie in a Dolby Cinema, then you clearly haven't experienced one.

 

[JoeCamel]

If the same system in place now survives, I would not expect ticket prices to drop substantially, as theaters don't make any money on tickets as it is now.

Come on we both know that will never happen

I expect the survivors to upgrade the theatres and charge a premium price for a premium experience. Maybe $30 a ticket. If the rest of the venues screens went dark it would be a reasonable choice to someone who appreciated what was offered. Often that is what consultants (I know) advise failing businesses to do. The instinct is to drop prices and make it up on volume and popcorn but that only makes your product look cheap.
Give me privacy to react as I want and a pause button I would be a regular customer to get blown away.

 

[JungleSkip]

Agreed.

The only time the audience has made a movie worse for me in recent memory was on my second time viewing Toy Story 4 last summer. A kid started crying. Normally though, I go to late night showings where no kids ever are (or matinees when they'd be in school) and I get a nice center view seat in the Dolby theater at Disney Springs. If any of you think watching at home can beat watching a movie on that specific screen, then you haven't experienced a Dolby cinema.

I've seen plenty of movies in Dolby. I'd still rather be sitting on my couch with free snacks and pause functionality.

Also weren't you saying $20 for a VOD rental is too much for you? Dolby tickets run that normally.

 

[Nick]

I've seen plenty of movies in Dolby. I'd still rather be sitting on my couch with free snacks and pause functionality.

Also weren't you saying $20 for a VOD rental is too much for you? Dolby tickets run that normally.

$20 is not too much, it's just not worth it if i'm gonna be watching it alone. I'm willing to pay the $18 it costs to see Endgame or something in Dolby with a group of friends. Now that's not where I always go for movies though. Sometimes I just buy an $8 ticket for a regular theater and i'm good.

 

[Disneyhead]

To me, the purpose built immersiveness of the theater provides a much more distraction free movie watching environment. No matter what I'm watching on my perfectly adequate home entertainment system will always just be "watching TV".

 

[Nick]

To me, the purpose built immersiveness of the theater provides a much more distraction free movie watching environment. No matter what I'm watching on my perfectly adequate home entertainment system will always just be "watching TV".

Agreed.

Maybe it's just me, but when i'm at home, I get distracted so damn easily. I'll be checking my phone and half paying attention for most of a movie. In a theater, I make sure my phone is on silent, my Apple Watch is on theater mode, and my sole attention is given to the screen.

 

[Cup_Of_Coffee]

$1 ticket deals are not for big, new, blockbuster movies. And theaters survive on concessions. Prices aren't gonna come down.

This is assuming that the current model of theaters is what will survive, its clear its not going to and somebody is going to buy the theaters out, at least thats how I feel. The assumption I working under is that, and that prices to some degree will go down. How do you not adjust a failing business model after this? I just don't see it.

If the same system in place now survives, I would not expect ticket prices to drop substantially, as theaters don't make any money on tickets as it is now.

Im working under the assumption the current system is not what will be coming back. I think for virtually every industry, things won't be the way they were before. The theaters themselves I see being bought out, and whoever that buyer is is going to HAVE to create some sort of experience that makes going out to a theatre worth it.

 

[Allison]

Everybody who keeps talking about miserable theater experiences are doing it wrong.

As someone who’s grown to hate going to the movies (can’t stand sitting still that long, the last movie I saw in the theater was The Last Jedi, what I saw before that one I honestly can’t remember) please share your positive theater experience secrets!!

 

[Grabnar]

As someone who’s grown to hate going to the movies (can’t stand sitting still that long, the last movie I saw in the theater was The Last Jedi, what I saw before that one I honestly can’t remember) please share your positive theater experience secrets!!

Early, early matinees and:

 

[JungleSkip]

Early, early matinees and:

Problem is there aren’t many Drafthouses around. Especially on the east coast

 

[Nick]

Monster Hunter is currently holding onto a December release date:

 

[Disneyhead]

As someone who’s grown to hate going to the movies (can’t stand sitting still that long, the last movie I saw in the theater was The Last Jedi, what I saw before that one I honestly can’t remember) please share your positive theater experience secrets!!

Well, I don't have an answer for your personal restlessness issues. But the most common complaints about going to the movies are cost, too crowded, inconsiderate other guests, and children. I go to early matinees (cheap) mid-week the second week a film is in the theaters. Me and the one other old dude are usually the only ones there. I buy a med popcorn/med coke. And carry in a bag of Reese's Pieces in my pocket. Usually in and out for about $12.

 

[MrBlonde]

As someone who’s grown to hate going to the movies (can’t stand sitting still that long, the last movie I saw in the theater was The Last Jedi, what I saw before that one I honestly can’t remember) please share your positive theater experience secrets!!

As much as I hate the extra cost, the Dolby seats at my local AMC are fantastic. The screen looks even better than our fake IMAX screen, so when it's a big movie, I book my buddy and me seats there whenever we can. We go to the latest shows and wait a week to miss to the opening rush. We also grab dinner and drinks beforehand so no need for expensive popcorn.

I've also learn to lean the chair all the way back and embrace the mid-movie nap. Worse case it's a 3 hour long thing. You're not gonna miss anything important that your friend can't tell you.

 

[Allison]

Well, I don't have an answer for your personal restlessness issues. But the most common complaints about going to the movies are cost, too crowded, inconsiderate other guests, and children. I go to early matinees (cheap) mid-week the second week a film is in the theaters. Me and the one other old dude are usually the only ones there. I buy a med popcorn/med coke. And carry in a bag of Reese's Pieces in my pocket. Usually in and out for about $12.

Cost is definitely an issue, whenever I’d go between tickets, popcorn, ridiculously gigantic sodas, it’s always been around $40-$50 and, to me, I just don’t see that being worth it.

As much as I hate the extra cost, the Dolby seats at my local AMC are fantastic. The screen looks even better than our fake IMAX screen, so when it's a big movie, I book my buddy and me seats there whenever we can. We go to the latest shows and wait a week to miss to the opening rush. We also grab dinner and drinks beforehand so no need for expensive popcorn.

I've also learn to lean the chair all the way back and embrace the mid-movie nap. Worse case it's a 3 hour long thing. You're not gonna miss anything important that your friend can't tell you.

I think comfier seats would be great! The AMC in Disney Springs might as well have steel benches installed, they’re so uncomfortable.

 

[OLSinFLA]

This is it right here. The nerds can argue aspect ratios and screen types and sound systems all day long, but at the end of the day, none of that matters. A movie isn't a social event for everyone, the theatergoing experience can bas as much a negative as a positive, and I think PVOD is going to wind up being even more normalized, and you'll see even more day-and-date home releases and shortened windows coming out of COVID.

Those "nerds" include people like cinematographers and directors who have to decide compositions for shots, what should and not be included etc. The rule of thumb is a movie is a medium for long distance and medium closeups, while television (including streaming) is a medium to close-up shot range. A film like 'Lawrence of Arabia" was certainly never meant to be experienced on a TV screen. On the other hand, a TV show on a big screen doesn't look right either. Plus on wide-screen films on TV you have two choices - black bands or crop the picture. (The worst "pan-and-scan" of a film ever was of 'The Lion In Winter'. A scene where two of the characters are on oppsoite sides of the screen have ping-pong dialogue. Rather than panning back and forth the edit just stayed in the middle... so NO ONE was on screen during the scene!).
Some of us still consider films as an art form, and like art, we don't think the Mona Lisa is improved by blowing the image up and cutting off the sides

 

[Disneyhead]

Cost is definitely an issue, whenever I’d go between tickets, popcorn, ridiculously gigantic sodas, it’s always been around $40-$50 and, to me, I just don’t see that being worth it.



I think comfier seats would be great! The AMC in Disney Springs might as well have steel benches installed, they’re so uncomfortable.

Try the Cinemark at Festival Bay/Artegon. They have great seats and $5 Tuesdays. Their XD theater is great.