Attendance Tracker

[Parkscope Joe]

I have a lot to say about the challenges of brining SW to life in a park but that's better served in the Star Wars land thread everyone.

 

[Galaxy Defender]

I spoke with a hotel night manager near WDW on Monday. He said that last year was a banner year for them. They are currently down right now compared to last year, though not by a lot.

In a more disturbing note, a financial services company did a couple of surveys regarding Zika and WDW. The results indicated respondents planning WDW trips are changing their minds due to Zika. Below is the link to the Orlando Sentinel article.

 

[Galaxy Defender]

Parent company Disney continues to trim staff. Thus time it is 250.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/15/b...est&contentPlacement=1&pgtype=collection&_r=0

 

[SeventyOne]

In a more disturbing note, a financial services company did a couple of surveys regarding Zika and WDW. The results indicated respondents planning WDW trips are changing their minds due to Zika. Below is the link to the Orlando Sentinel article.

Have had northeast and UK friends quiz me on Zika ... which has been odd because not even on my radar, to be honest. Does feel like it's one nightly news story away from blowing up.

 

[Galaxy Defender]

Orlando numbers decline from the Sarasota Herald Tribune. This part is hard numbers:

Even before Orlando's summer of tragedies — the worst mass shooting in modern U.S. history, the death of a toddler by an alligator, the slaying of a former singer from "The Voice" — some tourism indicators were declining in the most-visited city in America. Hotel occupancy rates were down 2.5 percent for the year through July, and the number of hotel rooms sold had dropped almost 2 percent from the previous year.

Orlando's numbers decline - News - Sarasota Herald-Tribune - Sarasota, FL

 

[SeventyOne]

[adorable kid pics redacted for space]

The other reason is locals won't want to pull their kids out of school to go to the event nor will they want them up late at night and then try to get them to school the next day.

MNSSHP is surprisingly locals-oriented. Per my domesticated Dr Phillips friends, a lot of families previously did that rather than APs when the price hikes really started a few years ago. There's no reason for 10/29 not to have sold out, and little reason for 10/31 not to have, school night or not, other than dissatisfaction with WDW product/cost.

 

[GAcoaster]

In a more disturbing note, a financial services company did a couple of surveys regarding Zika and WDW. The results indicated respondents planning WDW trips are changing their minds due to Zika. Below is the link to the Orlando Sentinel article.

Think about who the primary audience for Disney is. Young families who have young children and may be planning to have more (or just want to not take a chance in case they have another kid). Both of my sisters up in NJ have kids who are in the sweet spot for Disney (6-10 years old girls) and although they aren't actively trying to get pregnant, they could accidentally and I would tell them to hold off on visiting or visit in the winter just to be safe. No one wants to think about having a kid with birth defects if it can be prevented.

 

[Galaxy Defender]

Turns out that attendance decline story I posted from the Sarasota paper is actually an Associated Press story. It is popping up on other news sites.

 

[Galaxy Defender]

WDW ends it's fiscal quarter and year the end of this month. The current gas shortage will not help. People in the affected areas are cutting back on driving. Anyone North of these areas has to wonder if they will be able to gas up along the way.

HHN and new rides at UO will help motivate people to brave the trip. WDW is still pretty much the same old same old. Food and Wine goes on for two months. If it is just more of the same then a trip can more easily wait a while. WDW is up against a banner quarter from last year that had 7% growth. This will make a bad attendance number just a little worse.

 

[Mad Dog]

WDW ends it's fiscal quarter and year the end of this month. The current gas shortage will not help. People in the affected areas are cutting back on driving. Anyone North of these areas has to wonder if they will be able to gas up along the way.

HHN and new rides at UO will help motivate people to brave the trip. WDW is still pretty much the same old same old. Food and Wine goes on for two months. If it is just more of the same then a trip can more easily wait a while. WDW is up against a banner quarter from last year that had 7% growth. This will make a bad attendance number just a little worse.

Looking at Touring Plans daily crowd levels (not true attendance numbers, but good indicators), it appears Sept. already has, to date, been bad for WDW, most especially DHS. And as you said, Disney's first quarter (which is Oct. Nov. Dec. ) is up against good numbers, though I would think the gas situation will be fixed by then. It will be interesting to see what happens for those three months. I would guess that this quarter (July, August, Sept.) is down for sure. And when I mentioned the bad WDW attendance for this quarter on another thread, Seth Kubersky(Touring plans, author of Unofficial WDW) liked both posts, which, I would guess is confirmation of bad WDW numbers.

 

[Galaxy Defender]

Here is the last paragraph from a WDW article about WDW and Zika:

Citigroup shot back Friday saying Google search data suggests the perception of Zika risk is small. Zika didn’t show up as a top related search term for Disney World. Meanwhile, Orlando hotel room prices show no signs of moderating, and airport traffic is up sharply versus a year ago, the bank said.

Hotel occupancy is down in Orlando but not enough to influence prices. Airport traffic is way up. Wonder where they are staying? The increased traffic is not going to WDW.

 

[Mad Dog]

Here is the last paragraph from a WDW article about WDW and Zika:

Citigroup shot back Friday saying Google search data suggests the perception of Zika risk is small. Zika didn’t show up as a top related search term for Disney World. Meanwhile, Orlando hotel room prices show no signs of moderating, and airport traffic is up sharply versus a year ago, the bank said.

Hotel occupancy is down in Orlando but not enough to influence prices. Airport traffic is way up. Wonder where they are staying? The increased traffic is not going to WDW.

Perhaps more airport hub activity. That wouldn't translate into more visitors, just more people going through the airport for other destinations.

 

[GAcoaster]

The bombings in New York and New Jersey can't help matters for anyone. Since so much of the Orlando park going attendance is the NYC metropolitan area, they may be jittery to take a trip now.

Walking through TTC and seeing guests with huge bags and coolers is a little nerve wracking.

 

[IzzyB]

The bombings in New York and New Jersey can't help matters for anyone. Since so much of the Orlando park going attendance is the NYC metropolitan area, they may be jittery to take a trip now.

Walking through TTC and seeing guests with huge bags and coolers is a little nerve wracking.

Honestly, I don't think the bombings effect Disney. I think it would be pretty hard to take a backpack into Disney with a bomb. Disney Springs is a different story, but you can avoid that on a vacation. I mean sure on the monorail or boat, but I just don't see that happening either. I think you have just as much of a chance of running into a bomb traveling to work as you do traveling to Disney, so why stop vacationing?

I also don't think people will cancel their vacation due to the gas shortage. They will just get gas as they go and not let their tank go below a certain point. But one is not going to cancel a pre-planned trip because of a gas shortage. Too much planning goes into play including scheduling time off of work to cancel it last minute for a minor thing like that.

So bottom line, if attendance sucks, it has nothing to do with that. More that Disney needs to get their act together.

 

[Mad Dog]

The bombings in New York and New Jersey can't help matters for anyone. Since so much of the Orlando park going attendance is the NYC metropolitan area, they may be jittery to take a trip now.

Walking through TTC and seeing guests with huge bags and coolers is a little nerve wracking.

I wonder if the super liberal policy on coolers in the parks will disappear in the future. This is the perfect excuse to get rid of them and make more profit on food and beverage sales.

 

[Galaxy Defender]

I also don't think people will cancel their vacation due to the gas shortage. They will just get gas as they go and not let their tank go below a certain point. But one is not going to cancel a pre-planned trip because of a gas shortage. Too much planning goes into play including scheduling time off of work to cancel it last minute for a minor thing like that.

So bottom line, if attendance sucks, it has nothing to do with that. More that Disney needs to get their act together.

There are periods where no station has gas for a long stretch. This will have more of an effect on impulse trips and trips that can be rescheduled for a few weeks later. This is just another little ding on the fourth quarter ending this month.

 

[IzzyB]

There are periods where no station has gas for a long stretch. This will have more of an effect on impulse trips and trips that can be rescheduled for a few weeks later. This is just another little ding on the fourth quarter ending this month.

Do people really take impulse trips from NC down to Florida? I can't imagine that happens a ton. I just don't think this effects their numbers. Their numbers are their numbers because of their bad decisions. Plus things like this effect all three parks, not just one. So you need to compare all three when it comes to decreases/increases to see how healthy one park is over another. Sea World is struggling big time, Disney is on a downward path until new things open, and Universal is doing well. That is based on comparing their last quarter percents.

 

[GAcoaster]

Honestly, I don't think the bombings effect Disney. I think it would be pretty hard to take a backpack into Disney with a bomb. Disney Springs is a different story, but you can avoid that on a vacation. I mean sure on the monorail or boat, but I just don't see that happening either. I think you have just as much of a chance of running into a bomb traveling to work as you do traveling to Disney, so why stop vacationing?

Disney transportation is highly visible and vulnerable. That's why they're finally moving screenings to the TTC and hotels rather than MK entrance. With an election right now and a candidate playing on people's fears, some people will decide they don't want to risk being in a place that is such a prime target for a lone wolf terrorist.

So bottom line, if attendance sucks, it has nothing to do with that. More that Disney needs to get their act together.

Absolutely, this is Disney's own doing, but it is compounded by outside events and influences. That's why Universal's attendance is flat while Disney's is down. One invested in attractions, the other invested in wrist bands.

 

[GAcoaster]

I wonder if the super liberal policy on coolers in the parks will disappear in the future. This is the perfect excuse to get rid of them and make more profit on food and beverage sales.

If I were Disney, I'd use it as the excuse to ban coolers as well as outside food and drink.

 

[Mad Dog]

If I were Disney, I'd use it as the excuse to ban coolers as well as outside food and drink.

Yep, ideal opportunity.