Avatar: The Way Of Water

[fryoj]

I'm not saying it's going to have a bad opening weekend. I'm saying it may not do as well as it has the potential to because it's potential is now limited by the amount of showtimes that can be run in a set day.

Endgame was 3 hours long and is the biggest opening weekend ever by $100 million. The length isn't limiting anything.

 

[TheGentTrent]

Endgame was 3 hours long and is the biggest opening weekend ever by $100 million. The length isn't limiting anything.

Endgame was able to score big because many theaters had showings 24 hours a day opening weekend. I doubt we'll ever see that happen again.

 

[Nick]

Endgame was 3 hours long and is the biggest opening weekend ever by $100 million. The length isn't limiting anything.

I was in the middle of editing my post when you quoted.

This movie has a lot of curiosity due to it being so long since the first and also being a sequel to the #1 grossing film of all time, but it's not Avengers Endgame in terms of the amount of overwhelming anticipation among a large part of even the non-film going public.

Also to consider - the movie has to be good. I'm not worried about that with James Cameron, but if reviews come out and aren't as kind to it or word of mouth isn't as positive, then it may not have nearly the repeat number of showings as the first movie, meaning far less money made.

But as i've said in the past, Avatar could quite literally make almost 33% of it's total box office from the original film (or just make 50% of what it did originally overseas) and it's still at minimum a $1 Billion dollar film. To not get to a $1 Billion on general interest alone would be really hard for a sequel to a movie that has made almost $3 Billion.

Endgame was able to score big because many theaters had showings 24 hours a day opening weekend. I doubt we'll ever see that happen again.

Well.... Kang Dynasty and Secret Wars potentially.

Or if James Gunn and Feige work together to do a Justice League vs. Avengers movie. If anyone wants that type of thing to happen, it's a big Marvel/DC fan like Feige and Gunn.

 

[fryoj]

Endgame was able to score big because many theaters had showings 24 hours a day opening weekend. I doubt we'll ever see that happen again.

I was in the middle of editing my post when you quoted.

This movie has a lot of curiosity due to it being so long since the first and also being a sequel to the #1 grossing film of all time, but it's not Avengers Endgame in terms of the amount of overwhelming anticipation among a large part of even the non-film going public.

Also to consider - the movie has to be good. I'm not worried about that with James Cameron, but if reviews come out and aren't as kind to it or word of mouth isn't as positive, then it may not have nearly the repeat number of showings as the first movie, meaning far less money made.

But as i've said in the past, Avatar could quite literally make almost 33% of it's total box office from the original film (or just make 50% of what it did originally overseas) and it's still at minimum a $1 Billion dollar film. To not get to a $1 Billion on general interest alone would be really hard for a sequel to a movie that has made almost $3 Billion.


Well.... Kang Dynasty and Secret Wars potentially.

Or if James Gunn and Feige work together to do a Justice League vs. Avengers movie. If anyone wants that type of thing to happen, it's a big Marvel/DC fan like Feige and Gunn.

I'm not saying it's going to do endgame numbers. I'm saying that any limitation on opening weekend gross will not be because of run time. Endgame doing $357 million proves that it CAN be done. Avatar doing less will be because lack of interest or factors other than run time.

 

[Nick]

I'm not saying it's going to do endgame numbers. I'm saying that any limitation on opening weekend gross will not be because of run time. Endgame doing $357 million proves that it CAN be done. Avatar doing less will be because lack of interest or factors other than run time.

Saying that if a movie opens below $357M it's because of lack of interest is one of the most ludicrous things i've ever heard. Endgame was basically the most anticipated (and hyped) a collective public has been for a film in the history of movie going.

$357M opening will likely not be broken for at least 5-10 years, if ever. And to get that opening, as @TheGentTrent pointed out, theaters had to stay open 24/7.

 

[fryoj]

Saying that if a movie opens below $357M it's because of lack of interest is one of the most ludicrous things i've ever heard. Endgame was basically the most anticipated (and hyped) a collective public has been for a film in the history of movie going.

$357M opening will likely not be broken for at least 5-10 years, if ever. And to get that opening, as @TheGentTrent pointed out, theaters had to stay open 24/7.

You might want to look into the use of "or" in my post.


But since you picked out just one part of the sentence, it will take a lot of interest to hit $257 million. Any less would be, at least in part, due to the lack of interest of the amount of people it would take to hit that number.

 

[Nick]

You might want to look into the use of "or" in my post.


But since you picked out just one part of the sentence, it will take a lot of interest to hit $257 million. Any less would be, at least in part, due to the lack of interest of the amount of people it would take to hit that number.

A film can do really good (open less than freakin $357M) and still have a lot of people interested in it. You are talking some crazy stuff there, my guy.

 

[DK745]

It may not even need a big opening weekend if it's going to have long legs. I don't know how long the theatrical window will be now thanks to streaming but the original Avatar only made $77M on opening weekend. It went on to gross almost $750M domestically.

 

[Nick]

It may not even need a big opening weekend if it's going to have long legs. I don't know how long the theatrical window will be now thanks to streaming but the original Avatar only made $77M on opening weekend. It went on to gross almost $750M domestically.

Just look at Top Gun: Maverick. Opened to a $126M 3-day weekend ($160M 4-day) and legged it’s way to $716M.

I suspect James Cameron is going to demand a full theatrical run as he owns one of the production companies on the movie and believes in full theatrical runs.

 

[fryoj]

A film can do really good (open less than freakin $357M) and still have a lot of people interested in it. You are talking some crazy stuff there, my guy.

No, you are trying to take a term "lack of interest" and turn that into me saying that no one is interested in it. Me not going to see the first Avatar movie was due to lack of interest. That didn't stop it from being the biggest movie of all time.

But the overall level of interest has a much bigger effect on a movie's opening and legs than the "potentially big effect" of the 3 hour run time.

 

[Nick]

Speaking of a new trailer…

No, you are trying to take a term "lack of interest" and turn that into me saying that no one is interested in it. Me not going to see the first Avatar movie was due to lack of interest. That didn't stop it from being the biggest movie of all time.

But the overall level of interest has a much bigger effect on a movie's opening and legs than the "potentially big effect" of the 3 hour run time.

This is a semantics debate at this point. Honestly I don’t really care at the end of the day.

 

[PerceptiveCoot]

Endgame was able to score big because many theaters had showings 24 hours a day opening weekend. I doubt we'll ever see that happen again.

A few months ago:


Maybe not 24/7 coverage, but Disney pretty much floods the market with their big releases if there's nothing else out.

 

[Nick]

A few months ago:


Maybe not 24/7 coverage, but Disney pretty much floods the market with their big releases if there's nothing else out.

The Way Of Water is also going to be the first big blockbuster to open since Wakanda Forever, too. The next big movie is Babylon the following week, but like you were saying, Disney is going to be able to own that opening weekend for sure and especially make a ton of money from Premium Format Screens.

 

[twebber55]

'Avatar: The Way of Water' Predicted to Earn $649 Million at Domestic Box Office

Though the film will still be a huge hit, it may not see the box office numbers that the original did.

collider.com

they are predicting 650 million domestic gotta assume thats about 30% of the gross so maybe 2 billion which seems a little high

 

[PerceptiveCoot]

'Avatar: The Way of Water' Predicted to Earn $649 Million at Domestic Box Office

Though the film will still be a huge hit, it may not see the box office numbers that the original did.

collider.com

they are predicting 650 million domestic gotta assume thats about 30% of the gross so maybe 2 billion which seems a little high

If it opens in China, they're golden.

 

[Brian G.]

'Avatar: The Way of Water' Predicted to Earn $649 Million at Domestic Box Office

Though the film will still be a huge hit, it may not see the box office numbers that the original did.

collider.com

they are predicting 650 million domestic gotta assume thats about 30% of the gross so maybe 2 billion which seems a little high

I gotta say, it’s very on brand for your return to be about Avatar.

 

[twebber55]

I gotta say, it’s very on brand for your return to be about Avatar.

yeah life's hit me pretty hard with health issues good to be able to have some fun and read and talk about theme parks thanks for the welcome back

 

[Brian G.]

yeah life's hit me pretty hard with health issues good to be able to have some fun and read and talk about theme parks thanks for the welcome back

Sorry to hear that but glad to see you’re able to join back in the discussions.

 

[Nick]

Official trailer:

 

[Nick]

“The market could be telling us we’re done in three months, or we might be semi-done, meaning: ‘OK, let’s complete the story within movie three, and not go on endlessly,’ if it’s just not profitable,” Cameron said.

“We’re in a different world now than we were when I wrote this stuff, even,” the filmmaker continued. “It’s the one-two punch — the pandemic and streaming. Or, conversely, maybe we’ll remind people what going to the theatre is all about. This film definitely does that. The question is: how many people give a s--- now?”

James Cameron Is Prepared to End ‘Avatar’ Franchise After Three Films If Sequels Underperform: ‘How Many People Give a S— Now?’

James Cameron is prepared to end the "Avatar" franchise after three films if he must, which would mean his intended fourth and fifth movies don't get made.

variety.com