Avatar: The Way Of Water

[belloq87]

The third movie is shot (to the extent these things are actually "shot") already, isn't it?

 

[Nick]

The third movie is shot (to the extent these things are actually "shot") already, isn't it?

Yes. They were filmed back to back.

 

[PerceptiveCoot]

The third movie is shot (to the extent these things are actually "shot") already, isn't it?

Per Cameron, the second movie, third movie, and 25 pages of the fourth movie are all shot since the characters have to remain roughly the same age during those parts of the story before a time skip in movie four.

 

[Nick]

I don't personally think that there will be an issue in The Way of Water making enough money for example, just because of how long it's been and people wondering if it was worth it. Also, if it gets a China release, that will be a big money generator right there. The original movie could make less than half of what the original made overseas and still make an easy $1B without even adding US/Canada into the mix.

Of course nothing is certain, but I do think Avatar 2 will perform fine and be a billion dollar earner. The question is once you get to Avatar 3 so soon after 2. Does this franchise have the juice to release on a release cycle similar to that of the Disney owned Star Wars movies where we can expect one every other year for four years and all of them to perform well or will this franchise be run into the ground? I guess we're going to find out.

 

[Nick]

Tickets now on sale. Final trailer tonight.

 

[Nick]

THIS is what the trailer that played before Wakanda Forever should've been.

 

[andrew]

It looks pretty at least.

 

[OrlandoGuy]

Lol ever since the first one came out I’ve thought this franchise is a joke.

Then James Cameron went on the media circuit and started making ridiculous quotes about how expensive and absurd the sequel is.

Then the AMC app crashed yesterday once tickets were released.

Now here I am with two tickets to see it in Dolby the weekend it comes out.

James Cameron…that guy knows a thing or two about a hype machine.

 

[Nick]

Lol ever since the first one came out I’ve thought this franchise is a joke.

Then James Cameron went on the media circuit and started making ridiculous quotes about how expensive and absurd the sequel is.

Then the AMC app crashed yesterday once tickets were released.

Now here I am with two tickets to see it in Dolby the weekend it comes out.

James Cameron…that guy knows a thing or two about a hype machine.

I'll be seeing it at the Dolby Cinema at Disney Springs in 3D. Probably in IMAX, too.

 

[belloq87]

Then James Cameron went on the media circuit and started making ridiculous quotes about how expensive and absurd the sequel is.

When I saw Cameron talking about how it needs to become the fourth highest-grossing movie of all time in order to break even, I had to smile.

He knows what he's doing.

 

[Nick]

When I saw Cameron talking about how it needs to become the fourth highest-grossing movie of all time in order to break even, I had to smile.

He knows what he's doing.

I just saw that and laughed because it's just classic Cameron.

I don't know that it'll make that much money as that means it has to make at least $2B, but the fact that he was able to swindle Fox into giving him that much money is absolutely classic James Cameron (and he already has the third movie filmed and secured for a release, too so he really doesn't care too much if these movies make money or not). Obviously he would like to be able to brag about it, but for him the biggest thing is that he just got to make these films.

He wasn't gonna do this unless he found a way to do this to where it matched his vision, which in this case meant creating a crap ton of new technology for under water filming.

 

[GAcoaster]

This is doomed to fail unless it does INCREDIBLE box office...

‘Avatar 2’ Is So Expensive It Must Become the ‘Fourth or Fifth Highest-Grossing Film in History’ Just to Break Even

James Cameron says that "Avatar: The Way of Water" will need to become the fourth or fifth highest-grossing movie in history in order to break even.

variety.com

They'll blame Chapek if it fails and praise Iger if it succeeds...

 

[Nick]

This is doomed to fail unless it does INCREDIBLE box office...

‘Avatar 2’ Is So Expensive It Must Become the ‘Fourth or Fifth Highest-Grossing Film in History’ Just to Break Even

James Cameron says that "Avatar: The Way of Water" will need to become the fourth or fifth highest-grossing movie in history in order to break even.

variety.com

They'll blame Chapek if it fails and praise Iger if it succeeds...

We were just talking about it above. Am I expecting it to necessarily make $2B? No. Am I going to call it a failure if it makes $1.8B and ends up with a $200M loss? No.

No you could say, "but it lost money so it has to be a failure". I can't argue with you there technically because you'd have facts on your side. However, If it makes $1.7-1.8B, it would show that the franchise still has plenty of juice left in it and that everyone talking about how it's lack of a cultural footprint didn't matter.

So if I have a theoretical $1.8B movie, which would be the 7th highest grossing movie of all time, all it tells me is that going forward, yes Avatar 3 is shot and probably has a similar budget issue. But if Avatar 3 performs well in 2024 (again, over $1.5B but still loses money), the answer isn't necessarily to not make Avatar 4 & 5 since people would have been going to see these films in big numbers.

The answer in that scenario is to tell Cameron that he has to make Avatar 4 & 5 on a bit of a smaller budget. That is unless you're fine with losing some money each film in exchange for gaining films that are perceived as extremely valuable blockbusters.

Also on the Chapek/Iger front... if these movies succeed, there's one and only one person who deserves praise and that's James Cameron. Murdoch/Iger/Chapek are ALL on the hook for allowing him to spend so much.

 

[Nick]

Something that will really determine a big part of how well this movie does and could be the ultimate difference maker for the movie is if Avatar 2 can secure a release in China or not.

 

[GAcoaster]

It will be interesting to see what the streaming window is on this...does it follow the 6-8 weeks Disney has been doing or will it be 6 months before it shows up on Disney/Hulu/HBOMax? I think the issue will be the same as all the recent Disney releases have had-- "Let's just wait a couple of weeks and it will stream". Disney has made it so only die hard fans pay for movie tickets with the majority of viewers just waiting until it shows up on the streaming services they're already paying for. Unless a movie is REALLY spectacular or not on a streaming service I can't see any movie pulling in the kind of box office this one needs to be successful.

 

[Nick]

It will be interesting to see what the streaming window is on this...does it follow the 6-8 weeks Disney has been doing or will it be 6 months before it shows up on Disney/Hulu/HBOMax? I think the issue will be the same as all the recent Disney releases have had-- "Let's just wait a couple of weeks and it will stream". Disney has made it so only die hard fans pay for movie tickets with the majority of viewers just waiting until it shows up on the streaming services they're already paying for. Unless a movie is REALLY spectacular or not on a streaming service I can't see any movie pulling in the kind of box office this one needs to be successful.

I’d say they will wait longer than they have been to send it to streaming seeing as The Way of Water has absolutely no competition for roughly 6 weeks. Also Iger may have a different plan for how long to wait for movies to hit streaming than Chapek did.

Additionally, the first box office estimates came out today after tickets went on sale yesterday for Avatar 2, showing an estimated $135-$175M opening with a $475M-$720M projected domestic cume. The Way of Water needs to come out on the high end of that to hit $2B imo (the original Avatar grossed 73% of its revenue from international markets which is why China is so crucial).

 

[Rhian]

The answer in that scenario is to tell Cameron that he has to make Avatar 4 & 5 on a bit of a smaller budget. That is unless you're fine with losing some money each film in exchange for gaining films that are perceived as extremely valuable blockbusters.

Unless he’s doing something else technologically groundbreaking those movies should be alright on a (comparatively) smaller budget. The technology and techniques created and developed in the first movie were refined for the sequel, and likely took a minuscule chunk of the budget and time compared to to developing the underwater stuff.

The costlistest part was research and developing the new tech and getting those workflows nailed down. Since that’s all done it’s really about refining things rather than creating something new moving forward.

I have to imagine the budget without the heavy r&d would then be much closer to a regular blockbuster nowadays.


I enjoy the story for what it is. I’m honestly excited to see this on the big screen knowing it’ll be gorgeous even if it’s not deep.

 

[OLSinFLA]

I'll be seeing it at the Dolby Cinema at Disney Springs in 3D. Probably in IMAX, too.

Me as well. Saw the HDR/HFR re-release of "Avatar" there and it was light years ahead of the LieMax theaters here

 

[Nick]

Me as well. Saw the HDR/HFR re-release of "Avatar" there and it was light years ahead of the LieMax theaters here

On the 2009 Avatar… it just came back onto Disney+ and after the film had a 4K remaster, I was disappointed to see that they didn’t add the option of watching it in IMAX Enhanced (or hell, even 3D for anyone still hanging onto a 3D TV).

 

[Legacy]

Waiting for streaming regardless. May even wait for included streaming instead of VOD rental. I just cannot care about this movie.