Avatar: The Way Of Water

[Disneyhead]

Waiting for streaming regardless. May even wait for included streaming instead of VOD rental. I just cannot care about this movie.

Same.

Except it will be on Disney+ and I don't have that.

 

[Nick]

One thing is for sure regarding this movie: Everyone's gonna have an opinion on it whether they went to see it or not.

It could be the opinion of not caring, it could be the opinion of thinking it was too long, an unneeded sequel or conversely there will be the "James Cameron did it again" crowd, thinking it's another magical experience that needs to be seen in theaters, or even those of the opinion that maybe it should be nominated for Best Picture. There will also likely be a bunch of "meh" or "it was cool" reactions.

This movie may not have left any cultural footprint, but it's definitely gonna have everyone talking one way or another.

 

[TheGentTrent]

I’d say they will wait longer than they have been to send it to streaming seeing as The Way of Water has absolutely no competition for roughly 6 weeks. Also Iger may have a different plan for how long to wait for movies to hit streaming than Chapek did.

Additionally, the first box office estimates came out today after tickets went on sale yesterday for Avatar 2, showing an estimated $135-$175M opening with a $475M-$720M projected domestic cume. The Way of Water needs to come out on the high end of that to hit $2B imo (the original Avatar grossed 73% of its revenue from international markets which is why China is so crucial).

I'm curious to see how Disney plans to handle the HBO Max aspect. The conditions of the deal between the two studios was that the Fox movies hit streaming 45 days after release. Does Disney have any legal ground to push that back and if they don't, how do they avoid pissing off Cameron with a short window?

 

[PerceptiveCoot]

‘Avatar: The Way of Water’ Lands China Theatrical Release

James Cameron's "The Way of Water" has landed a theatrical release in China — a big victory for the 20th Century Studios' film's box office potential.

variety.com

In 2009 China had around 4,000 screens.

In 2022, they have over 80,000.

 

[Mad Dog]

‘Avatar: The Way of Water’ Lands China Theatrical Release

James Cameron's "The Way of Water" has landed a theatrical release in China — a big victory for the 20th Century Studios' film's box office potential.

variety.com

In 2009 China had around 4,000 screens.

In 2022, they have over 80,000.

Yep. and probably the main reason Disney and Universal co ventured with China to build theme parks there, namely 'favored' status for their new film releases.

 

[Nick]

I'm curious to see how Disney plans to handle the HBO Max aspect. The conditions of the deal between the two studios was that the Fox movies hit streaming 45 days after release. Does Disney have any legal ground to push that back and if they don't, how do they avoid pissing off Cameron with a short window?

Avatar 2 is the last film under the current deal that will go to HBO Max after theaters. I think the terms of that deal are 45 days minimum, so it could be longer.

Of course HBO still will have the library part of the deal which means unless Disney buys out that deal, some Fox movies will still have to go back for a few years to come.

The much more toxic deal though is with Starz. That deal goes until 2026 and movies are constantly going on and off of D+ because of it.

‘Avatar: The Way of Water’ Lands China Theatrical Release

James Cameron's "The Way of Water" has landed a theatrical release in China — a big victory for the 20th Century Studios' film's box office potential.

variety.com

In 2009 China had around 4,000 screens.

In 2022, they have over 80,000.

It truly cannot be overstated how big this is for the box office potential of the movie.

 

[Lucky Planet]

i just...want an Alita sequel

 

[OLSinFLA]

On the 2009 Avatar… it just came back onto Disney+ and after the film had a 4K remaster, I was disappointed to see that they didn’t add the option of watching it in IMAX Enhanced (or hell, even 3D for anyone still hanging onto a 3D TV).

I still have mine (all of the Marvel films except the first 2 I have in 3D). You know Avatar 2 will be released in 3D on home video - James Cameron will insist on it.

 

[Nick]

i just...want an Alita sequel

I wouldn’t be surprised if it eventually happens. James Cameron has signaled he may not direct Avatar 5 if the franchise gets approved to go that far.

I can see him possibly wanting to direct something like a sequel to Alita: Battle Angel (I know he didn’t direct the first movie, but he produced it). I really wish Disney would get Alita up on Disney+, though.

 

[queenmetroid]

I've talked about this in different places, but I think this is the perfect movie in a recession. It's lengthy, so there's perceived value for money, it's a near perfect visual spectacle, probably like we haven't seen in a long time, and it's James Cameron. Those ingredients just feel like lightning in a bottle.

The only way it fails is a 5% on Rotten Tomatoes. I don't think it has to be great; just good enough. At the end of the day I still think optimists are probably wrong, but the haters much more so, especially in a year when Top Gun: Maverick, of all films, was such an unlikely success.

 

[Nick]

I've talked about this in different places, but I think this is the perfect movie in a recession. It's lengthy, so there's perceived value for money, it's a near perfect visual spectacle, probably like we haven't seen in a long time, and it's James Cameron. Those ingredients just feel like lightning in a bottle.

The only way it fails is a 5% on Rotten Tomatoes. I don't think it has to be great; just good enough. At the end of the day I still think optimists are probably wrong, but the haters much more so, especially in a year when Top Gun: Maverick, of all films, was such an unlikely success.

Also, I think people forget exactly why Avatar was such a hit and was able to bring in $133.2M in during re-release between the China re-release last year and this years re-release across the rest of the world.

Avatar (2009) was a movie that, no matter what language you speak, you were able to enjoy because it was a very human story that had us seeing the world of Pandora wide eyed just as Jake Sully did when Jake, who is a paraplegic in his human form, stepped into his Avatar body and started running. The movie didn't overly rely on dialogue or even English dialogue as it created an entirely new language that no one knew, which put everyone on the same plane.

If The Way of Water can recapture what made Avatar special to begin with, then I think that this has a chance to be a huge hit once again. The original Avatar made over $2B overseas so as i've often said, it could literally lose 50% of its overseas gross from the 2009 movie and STILL make over $1B just from international gross. Add in the domestic gross, which on the low end is projected at $475M domestic currently and $725M on the high end, i'd be extremely surprised if this film didn't make $1.5B on the absolute low end.

Sivako!

 

[Nick]

Sooo.... I think John Campea actually cracked the Cameron code here. He did the math out and it just doesn't make sense that Cameron meant the 3rd or 4th highest grossing film of all-time worldwide (or in other words 2 Billion or so) to break even. If the movie had the largest marketing campaign ever, which would be $300M+, you're still looking at around $1.1B that the production cost, which would be three times the most expensive film of all time. Theaters generally keep roughly 33% of the total box office on big films, so they would get the remaining $700M.

What Cameron more likely meant because he did not specify one way or the other was that the film needs to be around 3rd or 4th highest grossing DOMESTIC to make it's money back. That would put it between Avatar in 4th at $785M and No Way Home at $815M in 3rd. That would still be one expensive break even point, but it makes a hell of a lot more sense.

I think Cameron said this purposefully to get people talking about the movie tbh. He's always been a master at creating hype. He simply said "third or fourth highest grossing movie of all time". That leads people to believe worldwide, but he never did specify if he meant worldwide or if he meant domestic. Disney/Fox would be extremely negligent in actually approving a production budget as large as it would have to be for the break even point to be $2B.

EDIT: add on top of that that The Hollywood Reporter is saying the production budget is the most expensive of all-time between $350-$400M production budget and I just don't see how the costs can add up to a $2B break even.

 

[OLSinFLA]

Using "Hollywood Math" no film ever makes a profit <At least when paying percentage points comes into play>

 

[Tobias]

Yep. and probably the main reason Disney and Universal co ventured with China to build theme parks there, namely 'favored' status for their new film releases.

And for how much this film rides on China's Box Office, none of the theme parks there have Pandora. Correct me if I'm wrong, but weren't they offered Pandora and turned it down?

 

[Nick]

And for how much this film rides on China's Box Office, none of the theme parks there have Pandora. Correct me if I'm wrong, but weren't they offered Pandora and turned it down?

That was Tokyo I believe.

 

[Nick]

The review embargo lifts December 6th, 10 days before the movie releases. First reaction is out though from a notable director...

 

[youhow2]

The review embargo lifts December 6th, 10 days before the movie releases. First reaction is out though from a notable director...

That is one hell of a response especially from someone like del Toro. The last trailer didn't really grab me, but color me excited to see the flick now.

 

[Jamesh22]

The review embargo lifts December 6th, 10 days before the movie releases. First reaction is out though from a notable director...

But no mention of the story... thats what they really need to improve on the original.

 

[Nick]

But no mention of the story... thats what they really need to improve on the original.

I know it's not the popular consensus, but I enjoyed the story for the most part in the original. I can concede that some improvements wouldn't be a bad thing, but it was still good enough and emotional enough to where I consistently enjoy it every time I watch it. The worst part of the script imo is that it basically turns into a white savior movie along the way.

I still highly enjoy it though and watch it at least once a year and in theaters whenever it's available to be seen so i'm certainly not a neutral party in this. See this movie in a theater in 3D is just a different experience and i'd be lying if that wasn't a big reason I was excited for TWOW.

 

[belloq87]

Cameron knows how to craft fairly straightforward popcorn stories that basically satisfy audiences; that's essentially what the first AVATAR uses as the foundation for the spectacular visuals, and it all works well enough.

For a sequel, though, I'd really hope we get some writing that is more inventive. So far, the only real plot stuff we know is that "The humans have returned and are hunting the Na'vi," which is basically more of the same. Fingers crossed for some unexpected wrinkles.