Disney/FOX Acquisition Thread

[zg44]

Seriously, hasn't the Fox shareholders vote on the Disney/Fox deal yet? Why did Comcast even bother to bid for the deal in the first place if the Disney/Fox deal is close to be approved?

Because US DoJ approval isn't anywhere near the end of the process. You still need approval in other jurisdictions, and you still need both companies shareholders to vote (Comcast wouldn't need their shareholders to vote if they remain all-cash, only if they add stock to the offer).

The DoJ process has gotten way overrated here; Murdoch hasn't even rescheduled the Fox vote, so the bidding window is still open.

I think Murdoch will wait as long as plausible (at least another week or two) for Comcast to make a counteroffer. Why? Because it makes him richer.

 

[Parkscope Joe]

Seriously, hasn't the Fox shareholders vote on the Disney/Fox deal yet? Why did Comcast even bother to bid for the deal in the first place if the Disney/Fox deal is close to be approved?

Approved by DOJ doesn’t mean it’ll be accepted by the share holders.

 

[AlexanderMBush]

 

[Brian G.]

Wonder what Disney thinks now.

I always thought this was one of the main focuses on acquiring Fox's assets.

Shameless plug - I talk about that briefly on the podcast.

 

[LieutLaww]

I thought Disney knew the sports channels wouldn't be an option due to their own channels ?

 

[Paulio]

Approved by DOJ doesn’t mean it’ll be accepted by the share holders.

Because US DoJ approval isn't anywhere near the end of the process. You still need approval in other jurisdictions, and you still need both companies shareholders to vote (Comcast wouldn't need their shareholders to vote if they remain all-cash, only if they add stock to the offer).

The DoJ process has gotten way overrated here; Murdoch hasn't even rescheduled the Fox vote, so the bidding window is still open.

I think Murdoch will wait as long as plausible (at least another week or two) for Comcast to make a counteroffer. Why? Because it makes him richer.

If that's the case, then Comcast would have to resort a hostile-take over if the Fox shareholders vote to go with them over Disney, even though the Fox's board does not agree with teaming up with Comcast. Due to the current circumstances though, I do not think that Comcast would do that since it would make them bitter and thus jeopardizing the company's future plan in acquiring other entities. I wonder what Comcast’s next move in response to this.

 

[LieutLaww]

They will go and buy DC...

 

[quinnmac000]

They will go and buy DC...

Only if WB wants to sell it.

 

[brianlo]

Wonder what Disney thinks now.

I always thought this was one of the main focuses on acquiring Fox's assets.

Shameless plug - I talk about that briefly on the podcast.

The opposite, that was the one thing Disney kept acknowledging they would likely need to divest.

 

[zg44]

DC is WB's crown jewel other than the Harry Potter rights. They'd never sell that.

 

[AlexanderMBush]

DC is WB's crown jewel other than the Harry Potter rights. They'd never sell that.

Yeah, I'd argue DC, Loony Tunes/HB, Potter, and Middle Earth are out of discussion, considering the importance those IP's are for WB.

 

[Paulio]

Is there any chance Comcast may try and counter-bid in the event of DOJ's approval of Disney/Fox? The Fox Board seems to be against a deal with Comcast, and my understanding is that shareholders often go with the board's recommendation so as not to antagonize the relationship with their own board members. If the shareholders still vote for Comcast despite the board's recommendation, it would be considered a hostile-take over, something that is considered unpopular and out of bitterness.

 

[zg44]

Is there any chance Comcast may try and counter-bid in the event of DOJ's approval of Disney/Fox? The Fox Board seems to be against a deal with Comcast, and my understanding is that shareholders often go with the board's recommendation so as not to antagonize the relationship with their own board members. If the shareholders still vote for Comcast despite the board's recommendation, it would be considered a hostile-take over, something that is considered unpopular and out of bitterness.

I still think another Comcast bid is likely...; I don't think Comcast walks away until the price is over $80 billion.

 

[Orlandofan12]

I still think another Comcast bid is likely...; I don't think Comcast walks away until the price is over $80 billion.

I think it depends on if Disney/Fox raise their bid for Sky. I think Disney is signaling to Comcast right now that they can have Sky, and Disney won't raise their bid as long as Comcast doesn't come marching up to Fox's door again. If Comcast makes another bid for Fox, there's really going to a war. Disney will almost certainly make Comcast pay more for Sky, and hike their Fox bid yet again.

If Comcast were smart they'd take Sky and leave.

 

[Paulio]

I still think another Comcast bid is likely...; I don't think Comcast walks away until the price is over $80 billion.

Even if a means a hostile-taken over? Good luck with that. I'm not sure the Fox shareholders would just go against the board's recommendation like that and just team up with Comcast, when they already have a thing going and in the midst of working with Disney in merging with each other. That said, I would be surprised if Fox shareholders went with Comcast, but I doubt it would be a hassle for something like that.

On the other hand: Comcast Scrambles for 21st Century Fox as Disney Gains Momentum – Variety

"The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday that Comcast may look to bring in partners if the bidding were to reach as high as $90 billion. In that scenario, Comcast might take Fox’s international assets while a partner would focus on the 20th Century Fox studio, FX Networks, and other U.S.-centric businesses, according to the Journal. To Fox shareholders, the prospect of carving up the company may well be less attractive than Disney absorbing businesses that have long been under the same roof."

 

[Nick]

From the same Variety article above:

"Meanwhile, Disney is now on the hook to line up buyers for Fox’s 22 regional sports networks as part of the DOJ agreement. New Fox is not expected to seek to retain them. The channels, which include New York’s Yes Network and Los Angeles’ Fox Sports West, are valued at around $19 billion, per MoffettNathanson Research. Speculation about potential buyers has ranged from John Malone’s Liberty Media group to cable operators such as Charter Communications and Altice USA to digital giants that are diving into video, namely Facebook and Amazon."

 

[Paulio]

From the same Variety article above:

"Meanwhile, Disney is now on the hook to line up buyers for Fox’s 22 regional sports networks as part of the DOJ agreement. New Fox is not expected to seek to retain them. The channels, which include New York’s Yes Network and Los Angeles’ Fox Sports West, are valued at around $19 billion, per MoffettNathanson Research. Speculation about potential buyers has ranged from John Malone’s Liberty Media group to cable operators such as Charter Communications and Altice USA to digital giants that are diving into video, namely Facebook and Amazon."

And Disney have 90 days to to divert regarding the regional sports network, which means Comcast may have the time to sway Fox shareholders if they want a deal with them or not.

 

[zg44]

Fox vote now set on July 27. So Comcast has probably a week or two to make a bid.

 

[Paulio]

Fox vote now set on July 27. So Comcast has probably a week or two to make a bid.

Not just that, Comcast has been teaming up with private equity firms and it has been throwing around numbers as high as 90 billion as a possible counter bid, which would be so astronomically high that I don’t know if Disney would be willing to counter that. But at the same time, put the Comcast debt much more than $170B. How can Comcast really survive that astronomically rising debt?

 

[zg44]

Not just that, Comcast has been teaming up with private equity firms and it has been throwing around numbers as high as 90 billion as a possible counter bid, which would be so astronomically high that I don’t know if Disney would be willing to counter that. But at the same time, put the Comcast debt much more than $170B. How can Comcast really survive that astronomically rising debt?

Yeah because it sounds as if Comcast would not be paying around $30+ billion of the bill. That would go to their partner.

Fox's RSNs alone are worth $19 billion (since Comcast would be giving those to a partner).