Theatrical Future/PVOD Thread

[Nick]

California theaters reopening:


The New Mutants tracking for a $7M-$10M opening weekend, which at this point feels like Endgame’s $300M+ opening last year.

 

[belloq87]

I'm not sure NEW MUTANTS would have made a whole lot more than that in regular circumstances, honestly.

Disney should take what they can get and see it as a win.

 

[Nick]

I'm not sure NEW MUTANTS would have made a whole lot more than that in regular circumstances, honestly.

Disney should take what they can get and see it as a win.

I think it was originally tracking more around $25-$30M, but you have to think the legs might be longer now as people arent rushing out all at once. This will only be a marginal writeoff for Disney though considering it had a fairly small budget.

 

[OLSinFLA]

I'm not sure NEW MUTANTS would have made a whole lot more than that in regular circumstances, honestly.

Disney should take what they can get and see it as a win.

The reviews were painful

 

[Nick]

The reviews were painful

I’ve heard most of the problem is in the characters being so poorly developed, leading to poor storytelling.

 

[OLSinFLA]

I’ve heard most of the problem is in the characters being so poorly developed, leading to poor storytelling.

General consensus seems to be its poorly written, filled with cliches and bits stolen from other (better) movies. Which is surprising considering how many times it was re-edited and re-shot. If this is the better version, the original must have been Godawful. (On the bright side, TENET opens next week!)

 

[Nick]

General consensus seems to be its poorly written, filled with cliches and bits stolen from other (better) movies. Which is surprising considering how many times it was re-edited and re-shot. If this is the better version, the original must have been Godawful. (On the bright side, TENET opens next week!)

The rumors of re-shoots on this movie were false (at least in terms of completely changing the movie). The director confirmed so.

 

[OLSinFLA]

The rumors of re-shoots on this movie were false (at least in terms of completely changing the movie). The director confirmed so.

Apparently they were going to, but Disney washed their hands of fixing the film and finally dumped it. I'm surprised that film didn't go directly to Disney+ considering everyone knew it was a turkey.

 

[Nick]

Apparently they were going to, but Disney washed their hands of fixing the film and finally dumped it. I'm surprised that film didn't go directly to Disney+ considering everyone knew it was a turkey.

It couldn't go directly to Disney+. HBO has streaming rights to Fox movies through 2022 from a deal made prior to the merger.

In box office news...
Tenet:


The New Mutants:


David Copperfield and Bill & Ted 3:

 

[Andysol]

I’ll say this- If you thought inception was even the slightest big confusing at first watch, Just wait until you see Tenet.

By far the most confusing movie I’ve ever seen. Still easily watchable though.

John Washington was great in the action role but does not have nearly the charm of his old man. Far too serious and not a ton of range in this.

The movie experience was fine. Can have mask off while chomping on that $4 large popcorn bucket.

 

[Nick]

 

[ThemeParks4Life]

Grace Randolph is the last person I'd trust. She just said The Mandalorian Season 2 was getting delayed due to creative issues the day before Disney announced the S2 premiere date.

 

[Nick]

Grace Randolph is the last person I'd trust. She just said The Mandalorian Season 2 was getting delayed due to creative issues the day before Disney announced the S2 premiere date.

I don't like Grace one bit, but her info has been right way more than it's been wrong over this year.

 

[ThemeParks4Life]

So, can big budget blockbusters be profitable as PVOD rentals?

*Ron Howard voice* They can't.



Now the metric isn't foolproof, but this seems about right given social media trends. I find it very unlikely that Disney attempts to release Black Widow or Soul on Disney+ now.

 

[Nick]

So, can big budget blockbusters be profitable as PVOD rentals?

*Ron Howard voice* They can't.



Now the metric isn't foolproof, but this seems about right given social media trends. I find it very unlikely that Disney attempts to release Black Widow or Soul on Disney+ now.

I think there's a chance Soul is released this way. Black Widow will be pushed back to February if they think that that's the move they need to make. I think based on how Wonder Woman 1984 does is how Disney will decided if they hold Black Widow in November or move it to February when Eternals is supposed to come out.

 

[youhow2]

So, can big budget blockbusters be profitable as PVOD rentals?

*Ron Howard voice* They can't.



Now the metric isn't foolproof, but this seems about right given social media trends. I find it very unlikely that Disney attempts to release Black Widow or Soul on Disney+ now.

I'm thinking their price point was way off. $30 is 50% more than a dvd or blu ray... $20 bucks or so for a PVOD new release is probably the threshold.

Their release window is also coinciding with back to school during covid, Enhanced UI has been cut off since July, and we're approaching what looks like another period of economic turmoil as far as the markets are concerned.

 

[Nick]

Query: Say 2-3 weeks after release - Disney lowers Mulan's price to $15 and you guys haven't seen it yet and were on the fence bc of the $30 price tag. Do you even care to spend $15? I think the answer for most people is no or "I'll wait til it's on Disney+ in December". So was charging $30 ACTUALLY a bad idea if the people who paid were likely the only ones who were going to watch it anyway (on VOD)? Disney suffers most from a PVOD stragey because their target audience is families. A $33.5M PVOD opening with likely multiple people watching on most of those purchases would mean probably somewhere close to or over a $100M Domestic opening in theaters. Of course, families are the most likely group to NOT go to the movies right now, so that's the dilema Disney has with their movies currently.

I think Mulan, much like The New Mutants, is a movie that Disney just wants to try and make whatever money than can from it right now and then forget about it after they have to painfully write it off as a loss. Both movies have given them so many issues China is Disney's hope for a sizeable box office, although i'm doubting that will happen.

 

[lowbudget]

I'm thinking their price point was way off. $30 is 50% more than a dvd or blu ray... $20 bucks or so for a PVOD new release is probably the threshold.

Their release window is also coinciding with back to school during covid, Enhanced UI has been cut off since July, and we're approaching what looks like another period of economic turmoil as far as the markets are concerned.

Yep, the wife and I thought about watching, but the $30 price point turned us off. We want to see the movie but aren't dying to see it. $10-$15 and we would have pulled the trigger over the weekend. But for $30 we'll wait.

There is also an untapped market for folks like us, there is no way we would load up drive to a theater and everything that goes with to see Mulan. But for $15 we would watch it on the couch. I think that's where the industry goes from here, hit a larger audience because the "barrier to entry" is lower for the at home crowd, but still offer a premium in person experience for the die hards.

 

[Grabnar]

I really think that Mulan was the wrong movie to try this with. Between the anti-China sentiment being stoked up here in the states and the mediocre reception of most of these movies I think that they really hamstrung the effort and now everyone is going to point to Mulan as the reason not to release movies on PVOD (which may have been the intended effect in the first place).

I really wish they'd give it the old college try and actually release something hyped instead of just half-assing all of these releases.

 

[Nick]

I really think that Mulan was the wrong movie to try this with. Between the anti-China sentiment being stoked up here in the states and the mediocre reception of most of these movies I think that they really hamstrung the effort and now everyone is going to point to Mulan as the reason not to release movies on PVOD (which may have been the intended effect in the first place).

I really wish they'd give it the old college try and actually release something hyped instead of just half-assing all of these releases.

Most of the reviews i've read for Mulan say they wish they could've seen Mulan in theaters, too, because of how cinematic the movie is, so if Disney really was trying to kill PVOD for major releases, well... they may have been successful for now.