Theatrical Future/PVOD Thread

[quinnmac000]

Judd Apatow Says Warner Bros. Showed ‘Stunning’ Disrespect in HBO Max Bombshell Decision

"To do that to just every single person that you work with is really somewhat stunning.”

variety.com

* DJ Khalid voice* and another one

 

[ThemeParks4Life]

It's so interesting how WB basically just said "screw it, everything for 2021 is going on HBO Max and we're not gonna tell anyone!" and how Disney really is taking a half-measure apprach and only pulling films that in all honesty, probably were gonna be box office bombs anyway. And on top of that, they are still sticking by Premiere Access with Raya along with a pretty sizeable theatrical slate when you count in the fox films, too.

2021 is going to be a really telling year when it comes to the future of the blockbuster movie. WB seems to want to present blockbusters direct-to-consumer whereas Disney wants to do a lot of DTC stuff, but is sticking with theatrical model for their blockbuster films.

Yeah, Pinocchio and Peter Pan are easy choices to release on Disney+ since Zemeckis hasn't had a box office hit in almost a decade and Peter Pan is unlikely to be a large-scale film given David Lowery is attached. I'm a bit surprised Hocus Pocus 2 and Disenchanted aren't going for theatrical releases though.

Judd Apatow Says Warner Bros. Showed ‘Stunning’ Disrespect in HBO Max Bombshell Decision

"To do that to just every single person that you work with is really somewhat stunning.”

variety.com

* DJ Khalid voice* and another one

Jason Momoa and Josh Brolin have also supported Villeneuve on Instagram.

 

[rageofthegods]

WarnerMedia's CEO predicts that blockbuster movies will have $1 billion budgets in the future as streaming surges

WarnerMedia sent shockwaves through Hollywood last week after announcing its 2021 movies would debut on HBO Max and in theaters at the same time.

www.businessinsider.com

I...don't think this is reasonable at all.

 

[belloq87]

I've yet to hear anything from Kilar that makes me think he's competent having any say over a movie studio.

 

[PerceptiveCoot]

WarnerMedia's CEO predicts that blockbuster movies will have $1 billion budgets in the future as streaming surges

WarnerMedia sent shockwaves through Hollywood last week after announcing its 2021 movies would debut on HBO Max and in theaters at the same time.

www.businessinsider.com

I...don't think this is reasonable at all.

Actually, Mr. Dune Villnueve, you'll wrong and you'll get more money, not less! As you can see I am smart and know what's best for you...

Legitimately, if Warners wants to go out in a blaze of glory, then why not? Give somebody a billion dollar movie and see what happens. Not a series of movies, or back-to-back films. A single billion dollar movie, not including advertising costs. Every character a painstaking recreation of a dead actor as played by an already famous actor! A four hour runtime! Tens of thousands of extras (also all dead actors)! Go to space and then build your sets in a theme park as fully functioning areas separate from the film! I dare you Warner Bros. Put your money where your mouth is.

 

[rageofthegods]

He's saying this will be a reasonable prospect when you get 600m paying subscribers for a streaming service, which like, I suppose. IIRC, content budgets are amortized by subscriber count, so in theory this could make sense at that level.

But at that rate, what would even be the point? We're sending the biggest star alive to actual outer space to shoot a movie with a director who's famous for budget overruns and the production budget is still just $200m. What would make a $1b movie that different from a $500m movie or a $250m movie? I think you'll run smack into the wall of diminishing returns long before you get to a ridiculous number like that.

 

[quinnmac000]

Endeavor’s Patrick Whitesell On WarnerMedia: ‘Blatant Attempt To Self-Deal And Use Our Clients Work To Build Their HBO Max Streaming Service’

WME's Patrick Whitesell On WarnerMedia HBO Max Move: 'Blatant Attempt To Self-Deal And Use Our Clients Work To Build Their HBO Max Streaming Service'

deadline.com

more harsh words. I foresee talent saying bye bye now

 

[JoeCamel]

Story on local news "AMC has 100 million for right now but needs 750M for 2021 or may shutter" Anybody lend a dime?

 

[PerceptiveCoot]

Story on local news "AMC has 100 million for right now but needs 750M for 2021 or may shutter" Anybody lend a dime?

Not without some cushy conditions for whoever chooses to lend support.

 

[Nick]

I still don’t believe that Black Widow isn’t gonna go Premiere Access despite what Disney said yesterday. I think Disney was more or less appeasing theaters.

I don’t think enough people will be vaccinated by early May and Disney will be forced to say something like “due to the on-going pandemic, we will be releasing Black Widow on Disney+ with Premier Access, but remain dedicated to the theatrical experience going forward”.

 

[HalfGlass]

I still don’t believe that Black Widow isn’t gonna go Premiere Access despite what Disney said yesterday. I think Disney was more or less appeasing theaters.

I don’t think enough people will be vaccinated by early May and Disney will be forced to say something like “due to the on-going pandemic, we will be releasing Black Widow on Disney+ with Premier Access, but remain dedicated to the theatrical experience going forward”.

Was thinking the same thing last night...totally agree.

 

[Nick]

I know this is a few days old, but I just saw this. Why in the hell would any movie need a budget of one BILLION dollars or more? This is insane. Kilar hasn't showed me at all that he's capable of running WarnerMedia.

WarnerMedia's CEO predicts that blockbuster movies will have $1 billion budgets in the future as streaming surges

WarnerMedia sent shockwaves through Hollywood last week after announcing its 2021 movies would debut on HBO Max and in theaters at the same time.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[OLSinFLA]

I know this is a few days old, but I just saw this. Why in the hell would any movie need a budget of one BILLION dollars or more? This is insane. Kilar hasn't showed me at all that he's capable of running WarnerMedia.

WarnerMedia's CEO predicts that blockbuster movies will have $1 billion budgets in the future as streaming surges

WarnerMedia sent shockwaves through Hollywood last week after announcing its 2021 movies would debut on HBO Max and in theaters at the same time.

www.businessinsider.com

Inflation, etc. If you told me 20 years ago an animated film would cost $250 million to make I'd have thought you were crazy.

 

[Nick]

Inflation, etc. If you told me 20 years ago an animated film would cost $250 million to make I'd have thought you were crazy.

Yeah, but even Endgame only cost a little over $350M (+ probably around $200M for marketing). No movie should have a budget on the level of Endgame unless it's another movie on the scale of Endgame, anyway. The amount of years it'll take Inflation to get movies to a $1B budget would be a long ass time. I think Hollywood just needs to get it's budgeting in check, quite frankly.

Just for example of why it would be ridiculous for a single movie to have a $1B budget, James Cameron is making FOUR Avatar films with $1Billion total, or $250M per film.

 

[OLSinFLA]

Yeah, but even Endgame only cost a little over $350M (+ probably around $200M for marketing). No movie should have a budget on the level of Endgame unless it's another movie on the scale of Endgame, anyway. The amount of years it'll take Inflation to get movies to a $1B budget would be a long ass time. I think Hollywood just needs to get it's budgeting in check, quite frankly.

Just for example of why it would be ridiculous for a single movie to have a $1B budget, James Cameron is making FOUR Avatar films with $1Billion total, or $250M per film.

At least they will admit $350 million - but that was to make the film. And then there's marketing etc will still has to be accounted into the budget (even though Hollywood moves figures around like pieces on a chess board).

 

[Nick]

At least they will admit $350 million - but that was to make the film. And then there's marketing etc will still has to be accounted into the budget (even though Hollywood moves figures around like pieces on a chess board).

Yeah, I literally mentioned the $200M marketing budget that Disney reported for the film last year lol. Sure, that makes the total cost $550M, but this was the event film of all event films with a HUGE A-list cast getting paid through the roof. Most blockbusters won't have that type of a cast, budget, or even as big of a marketing budget. We're talking about the #1 film of all time and they spent $550M. Unless another film that big comes along, no one is having a budget much bigger anytime soon.

 

[rageofthegods]

At least they will admit $350 million - but that was to make the film. And then there's marketing etc will still has to be accounted into the budget (even though Hollywood moves figures around like pieces on a chess board).

Yeah, I literally mentioned the $200M marketing budget that Disney reported for the film last year lol. Sure, that makes the total cost $550M, but this was the event film of all event films with a HUGE A-list cast getting paid through the roof. Most blockbusters won't have that type of a cast, budget, or even as big of a marketing budget. We're talking about the #1 film of all time and they spent $550M. Unless another film that big comes along, no one is having a budget much bigger anytime soon.

Deadline says that Avengers Endgame cost around 890m in total.

That having been said I highly doubt that this is what Kilar means. Alot of those costs are participations, residuals and other sliding-scale costs that can't be accounted for in a budget. In the article, Kilar is talking about how his "new business model" of streaming + theaters day and date can support a billion dollar movie whereas, implicitly, the old model of just theatrical could not. He wouldn't be making this qualification if he thought that movies produced purely for theatrical - i.e. Endgame - were already commanding billion dollar budgets.

I think he's genuinely talking about a billion dollar production budget. Maybe he wants to add marketing in there, but even if he does, it's not gonna account for the majority of the budget, not by a long shot. Marketing has a floor but it also has a ceiling; even the highest grossing movie of all time, Endgame, only had a P&A budget of 155m. A hypothetical 1b movie would probably command a similar marketing budget or even a little less, since SVOD marketing is more efficient - the vast majority of that billion would go towards the production budget.

Which, I should stress again, would be f#!~k& insane!

 

[Nick]

And even if Endgame did cost that much, a good couple hundred million or so was probably likely had to do with the theatrical bonuses unlocked due to the performance of the movie. That isn’t a thing with streaming movies, which is where WB wants to go with blockbusters.

 

[Nick]

AMC is in danger of finally having to file for bankruptcy.

AMC warns it’ll run out of cash in January, calls out Warner Bros.’ shift to HBO Max

AMC Theatres needs $750 million — or else, it’ll run out of cash by mid-January.

www.theverge.com

 

[Legacy]

WB is just moving their films to streaming ahead of theaters going bankrupt.