Theatrical Future/PVOD Thread

[Nick]

WB is just moving their films to streaming ahead of theaters going bankrupt.

The theaters will not go out of business though. They will restructure and get bought out. AMC is not going to going to file for Chapter 7, it'll be Chapter 11.

And make no mistake, WB accelerated this.

 

[RevFreako]

The theaters will not go out of business though. They will restructure and get bought out. AMC is not going to going to file for Chapter 7, it'll be Chapter 11.

And make no mistake, WB accelerated this.

Not by much. AMC alone needs 650 million.

 

[Nick]

Not by much. AMC alone needs 650 million.

Yeah, they're not in a great place, I understand that. This is what happens when your business has pretty much died for about the past 10 months and you run on razor thin margins as it is. But I think as I said, they'll reorganize, probably close a bunch of theaters, and get bought out by Amazon or something just for fun. And if it doesn't work for Amazon then it's just like "oh well". It won't cost them a lot of money to buy out AMC, either (by Amazon standards).

 

[RevFreako]

Yeah, they're not in a great place, I understand that. This is what happens when your business has pretty much died for about the past 10 months and you run on razor thin margins as it is. But I think as I said, they'll reorganize, probably close a bunch of theaters, and get bought out by Amazon or something just for fun. And if it doesn't work for Amazon then it's just like "oh well". It won't cost them a lot of money to buy out AMC, either (by Amazon standards).

I dig that. I'm speaking to your connection to WB. I don't believe their decision contributed all that much to the situation.

 

[Nick]

I dig that. I'm speaking to your connection to WB. I don't believe their decision contributed all that much to the situation.

It's not the reason. But their decision is a big reason why Wall Street investors are now scared to give AMC money anymore. So yes, WB has had a huge impact.

 

[RevFreako]

It's not the reason. But their decision is a big reason why Wall Street investors are now scared to give AMC money anymore. So yes, WB has had a huge impact.

Maybe so. The difference I suppose, is that WB doesn't seem to think that's their problem, and I don't necessarily disagree with them. It's mot like WB isn't releasing their movies to the theaters - to my recollection, they didn't move a single picture to streaming only, which not even Disney can say.

 

[Nick]

Maybe so. The difference I suppose, is that WB doesn't seem to think that's their problem, and I don't necessarily disagree with them. It's mot like WB isn't releasing their movies to the theaters - to my recollection, they didn't move a single picture to streaming only, which not even Disney can say.

I’m not saying it’s WB’s problem or any Studio. I’m just saying that was a huge breaking point after a series of many points that were pointing to movies going to streaming instead of theaters. I also think it was unnecessary to announce the whole 2021 slate to HBO Max since we don’t know where we’ll be in July or August.

 

[Jamesh22]

I also think it was unnecessary to announce the whole 2021 slate to HBO Max since we don’t know where we’ll be in July or August.

That was my issue with it. I get saying the first 6 months of movies, but making your late Summer, Fall & Christmas releases (Including Dune and Matrix 4!) part of this just doesn't make much sense.

A least it doesn't until I consider that WB made $1.5 billion in 2019 but that was shared with the theater chains. All they have to do is get 9 million monthly subscribers and he make the same money without having to share it (if my math is right?)

 

[RevFreako]

I’m not saying it’s WB’s problem or any Studio. I’m just saying that was a huge breaking point after a series of many points that were pointing to movies going to streaming instead of theaters. I also think it was unnecessary to announce the whole 2021 slate to HBO Max since we don’t know where we’ll be in July or August.

Maybe it wasn't necessary, although I maintain that July/August is a silly-optimistic timeline in this country, but at least everyone knows where they stand.

 

[TheGentTrent]

Maybe so. The difference I suppose, is that WB doesn't seem to think that's their problem, and I don't necessarily disagree with them. It's mot like WB isn't releasing their movies to the theaters - to my recollection, they didn't move a single picture to streaming only, which not even Disney can say.

The Witches was intended for theaters and moved to streaming in June.

 

[RevFreako]

The Witches was intended for theaters and moved to streaming in June.

True, but I'm only talking about the 2021 slate that was just announced by both WB and Disney.

 

[Nick]

True, but I'm only talking about the 2021 slate that was just announced by both WB and Disney.

Raya will still be in theaters though and yeah, they moved Peter and Wendy and Pinocchio (which will be 2022 anyway, but whatever). Look into the history of Peter and Wendy. When first announced, it was announced as a Disney+ property. It was eventually moved too theatrical. Disney's just moving that movie back to where it was originally slated for.

Also key though, Disney consulted with the talent on these films and made sure to tell everyone involved for Raya, Peter & Wendy, Pinoccchio and they did the same with Soul. According to reports, they made deals with Tom Hanks for Pinocchio since it will be on streaming now and he had some theatrical clauses in his contract. My point here being, everything Disney moved, they made sure to get their ducks in a row about first and consult the top talent first instead of letting them find out on their own that the movie they made will now be on a streamer.

Even go back to Hamilton - Disney worked closely with Lin-Manuel (and he marketed the hell out of that thing for them) on moving from theatrical to Disney Plus and even allowing some typically not Disney appropriate language to go uncensored. They worked with him because they understand that Lin is a big part of Disney's future plans with Little Mermaid and Encanto coming up and probably a lot more as he's quickly become a Disney favorite. They value that relationship so they didn't want to burn that bridge.

That's something WB decided they just didn't care about at all. They decided to burn the house down to build up their streamer.

 

[OLSinFLA]

And even if Endgame did cost that much, a good couple hundred million or so was probably likely had to do with the theatrical bonuses unlocked due to the performance of the movie. That isn’t a thing with streaming movies, which is where WB wants to go with blockbusters.

Even $250 million budget for a streaming movie is unrealistic.

 

[Nick]

Even $250 million budget for a streaming movie is unrealistic.

Not necessarily. If it draws a crap ton of subscribers, it could be worth it. Streamers typically have a set amount of money they have for content each year. The goal of that money is essentially to bring in subscribers through having good content. Say a streamer spends $10B on content per year - $250M is just a drop in that bucket AND streaming movies/shows typically require FAR lower costing marketing campaigns than theatrical. Take WandaVision for example. They spent $150M on that show for 6 episodes and people are hyped as all hell to see it and Disney has put little to no effort into marketing it yet.

 

[RevFreako]

Not necessarily. If it draws a crap ton of subscribers, it could be worth it. Streamers typically have a set amount of money they have for content each year. The goal of that money is essentially to bring in subscribers through having good content. Say a streamer spends $10B on content per year - $250M is just a drop in that bucket AND streaming movies/shows typically require FAR lower costing marketing campaigns than theatrical. Take WandaVision for example. They spent $150M on that show for 6 episodes and people are hyped as all hell to see it and Disney has put little to no effort into marketing it yet.

Exactly. They're gonna save mad money on advertising.

 

[PerceptiveCoot]

Even go back to Hamilton - Disney worked closely with Lin-Manuel (and he marketed the hell out of that thing for them)

Yeah, we aren't going to see any of the Warners talent doing any favors for HBO Max. Unless they're contractually obligated to market the movie, which would suck.

 

[Nick]

I missed this from the other night. Timothee Chalomet, the lead actor in Dune, donned a Legendary sweatshirt at the end of this week's SNL episode. This isn't just directors.

I really hope Legendary sues, because if WB invoking their veto on Legendary selling Godzilla v. Kong to Netflix for $250M and then turning around and selling it to themselves for free (for all intents and purposes) isn't self-dealing, then I don't know what the hell is.

‘Dune’ Star Timothée Chalamet Dons Legendary Hoodie During ‘SNL’ Curtain Call As Studio Challenges WarnerMedia’s Decision To Move Film To HBO Max

Timothée Chalamet closed off his Saturday Night Live hosting debut by donning a Legendary-brand hoodie during the sketch show's curtain call.

deadline.com

 

[rageofthegods]

They took Reminiscence (the Lisa Joy movie with Hugh Jackman) off their theatrical calendar, possibly because there was a clause stipulating that there must be an exclusive theatrical run.

This would probably be the path they take for GvK and Dune should push come to shove and Legendary is really causing problems for them.

 

[Nick]

It should be pointed out too that HBO Max is STILL not available on Roku only 10 days before Wonder Woman 1984 comes out. 54% of the streaming audience is on Roku. If they don't sort their situation out with Roku, then this was all for nothing. I feel like AT&T doesn't want to pay Roku more than they feel they should, but if their content isn't on Roku, people are still going to watch it, it'll just be pirated. People normally will pay for things if it's more convenient, but if you're making people jump through hoops for your service, then piracy is going to take over, and you're giving it to them in full 4K.

And as for Roku, with the way Warner/HBO Max is being run by AT&T right now, I would not be shocked at all if Christmas Day gets here and there's no Roku app.

 

[PerceptiveCoot]

It should be pointed out too that HBO Max is STILL not available on Roku only 10 days before Wonder Woman 1984 comes out. 54% of the streaming audience is on Roku. If they don't sort their situation out with Roku, then this was all for nothing. I feel like AT&T doesn't want to pay Roku more than they feel they should, but if their content isn't on Roku, people are still going to watch it, it'll just be pirated. People normally will pay for things if it's more convenient, but if you're making people jump through hoops for your service, then piracy is going to take over, and you're giving it to them in full 4K.

And as for Roku, with the way Warner/HBO Max is being run by AT&T right now, I would not be shocked at all if Christmas Day gets here and there's no Roku app.

And now Roku knows they can likely wait it out and ask for a higher price when they know Warners is desperate for HBO Max to succeed.