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I loathe the idea of the only thing showing in theaters being big budget, tent pole films. Being at the cinema itself is a special experience and discovering something new on any scale is a treat in that environment, regardless of whether it's the latest summer blockbuster or a low budget, terse, tense thriller that keeps you up at night. I also just dislike devaluing the watching experience. I don't want to watch most new movies in a brightened room with distractions all around me, I want to be able to easily focus on the film itself.
 
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Nick said:
Both Nightmare Alley and The King’s Man will be coming to Hulu in February next month after lackluster theatrical releases. I’m looking forward to seeing Nightmare Alley for sure.

www.cinemablend.com

Two Big Movie Theater Releases Are Heading Straight To Hulu, And I Am Particularly Pumped

If you missed either of these films in theaters, you won't have to wait much longer to stream them!
www.cinemablend.com www.cinemablend.com
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It's great and worth seeing on the big screen if it's still an option in your area.
 
Was The King’s Man really THAT bad??? I know box office wise but film wise? I like the franchise as a whole so I can’t see it being THAT big of a miss. I didn’t know Kingsmen 2 either.

Was likely far too late but if they could’ve they should have put The King’s Man in the Morbius slot.
 
Cup_Of_Coffee said:
Was The King’s Man really THAT bad??? I know box office wise but film wise? I like the franchise as a whole so I can’t see it being THAT big of a miss. I didn’t know Kingsmen 2 either.

Was likely far too late but if they could’ve they should have put The King’s Man in the Morbius slot.
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While the RT critic score is 42%, the audience score is 80% and I’ve actually heard some people rave about it. Obviously from how disappointing the box office numbers are those are almost all fans of the franchise. The original Kingsman (Golden Circle) had an 84% audience score while the sequel (Secret Service) had a 64% audience RT score. So just based on that, if you like the Kingsman movies, than no, it's not THAT bad.

I do agree that, had they known Morbius would move, it should’ve opened in that slot. The movie opened before that was announced though and it wouldn’t have mattered anyway because once you’re inside of 3-4 weeks, there’s no moving it as the marketing campaign is starting in full force by then.

Tbh though, it probably should’ve opened in January anyway. Even with Morbius, it could’ve opened this weekend before Morbius and had the weekend to itself instead of being buried by Spider-Man.
 
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Nick said:
While the RT critic score is 42%, the audience score is 80% and I’ve actually heard some people rave about it. Obviously from how disappointing the box office numbers are those are almost all fans of the franchise. The original Kingsman (Golden Circle) had an 84% audience score while the sequel (Secret Service) had a 64% audience RT score. So just based on that, if you like the Kingsman movies, than no, it's not THAT bad.

I do agree that, had they known Morbius would move, it should’ve opened in that slot. The movie opened after that was announced though and it wouldn’t have mattered anyway because once you’re inside of 3-4 weeks, there’s no moving it as the marketing campaign is starting in full force by then.

Tbh though, it probably should’ve opened in January anyway. Even with Morbius, it could’ve opened this weekend before Morbius and had the weekend to itself instead of being buried by Spider-Man.
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Okay, I’ll definitely be checking this out then.

I agree this weekend would’ve been solid, or heck alongside Scream or in the 355 slot. Horrible release date when I feel they could’ve last minute thrown it in somewhere in August, September, or early October. Just so many other options.
 
Cup_Of_Coffee said:
Okay, I’ll definitely be checking this out then.

I agree this weekend would’ve been solid, or heck alongside Scream or in the 355 slot. Horrible release date when I feel they could’ve last minute thrown it in somewhere in August, September, or early October. Just so many other options.
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This film went through eight different release dates with the original one being November 8th, 2019. Obviously COVID screwed a lot of things up after it got moved to 2020 and had to be delayed, but I think this film has been in the can for awhile.

From what I can see, the film finished filming in early 2019. So yeah. Very reminiscent on what happened with The New Mutants.
 
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Coming back to this, I wonder how Disney is feeling following the past few months. Even more than Universal, every single film they have been releasing, has failed in some way or shape to maintain it's grip in the box office after it's first weekend, going above 60% in the drop off of second weekend returns.

Lightyear came in with a 65% drop-off, Bob's Burgers had the lowest at 62%, with both Doctor Strange and Thor: Love and Thunder respectively dropping by 67% and 68% respectively. This is not an isolated aspect, and is throughout the company as a whole. I wonder if in response, Disney may begin leaning to return to the longer window points from theatrical to DTC/Streaming, going back to 60 day windows as compared to 45 day windows.
 
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AlexanderMBush said:
Coming back to this, I wonder how Disney is feeling following the past few months. Even more than Universal, every single film they have been releasing, has failed in some way or shape to maintain it's grip in the box office after it's first weekend, going above 60% in the drop off of second weekend returns.

Lightyear came in with a 65% drop-off, Bob's Burgers had the lowest at 62%, with both Doctor Strange and Thor: Love and Thunder respectively dropping by 67% and 68% respectively. This is not an isolated aspect, and is throughout the company as a whole. I wonder if in response, Disney may begin leaning to return to the longer window points from theatrical to DTC/Streaming, going back to 60 day windows as compared to 45 day windows.
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I mean, it makes sense that these MCU movies are that front-loaded. The fourth entry in a Thor franchise isn't exactly bringing in general audiences. It's for fans mostly at this point.

Also, I feel like there's more hype for what's going direct to Disney+ (Hocus Pocus 2, Pinocchio, Disenchanted) than what's going theatrical. Lightyear is leaving theaters soon after only pulling $115 million domestic. Hopefully streaming gives it a second wind.
 
AlexanderMBush said:
Coming back to this, I wonder how Disney is feeling following the past few months. Even more than Universal, every single film they have been releasing, has failed in some way or shape to maintain it's grip in the box office after it's first weekend, going above 60% in the drop off of second weekend returns.
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I will bite. I think it has less to do with streaming and more to do with audiences being more discriminate in the content they want to watch. With the amount of content being released across the board, audiences want content that actually moves them or reminds them or makes them feel things, not just simply entertaining. Quality made blockbusters...not movies made just for money.

That's why Top Gun did so well. It was a quality made blockbuster made with the intent to be good rather than a cash grab.
 
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AlexanderMBush said:
Coming back to this, I wonder how Disney is feeling following the past few months. Even more than Universal, every single film they have been releasing, has failed in some way or shape to maintain it's grip in the box office after it's first weekend, going above 60% in the drop off of second weekend returns.

Lightyear came in with a 65% drop-off, Bob's Burgers had the lowest at 62%, with both Doctor Strange and Thor: Love and Thunder respectively dropping by 67% and 68% respectively. This is not an isolated aspect, and is throughout the company as a whole. I wonder if in response, Disney may begin leaning to return to the longer window points from theatrical to DTC/Streaming, going back to 60 day windows as compared to 45 day windows.
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Lightyear and Bob's Burgers were just straight up bombs. There's really no way around that. The Bob's Burgers Movie is a delayed movie that was supposed to be released in 2020 and I think it would've done better, and Lightyear was a complete cash grab. No reason for the movie to exist and it had an extremely confusing premise.

Doctor Strange 2 and Thor 4 though... those are both bonafide box office hits. Strange dropped 67% and is the 8th highest domestic grossing MCU film with $411M domestic and has $954M Worldwide. Thor 4 didn't open as high as Strange and fell 68%, but it has a 10-day total of $233M domestic and is crushing it overseas with $712M worldwide, putting it on pace to beat both the domestic and worldwide totals of Thor: Ragnarok at the box office as the highest grossing Thor movie.

I think Disney should just not announce how long their movies are going to play in theater before going to Disney+ (much like Top Gun: Maverick) and they'd probably get more repeat showings, but I don't think anyone is going to argue with the box office receipts Marvel is bringing in. The only success Fox has had in theaters since Disney acquired them is Free Guy, but Pixar having this kind of showing is a culmination of a lot of things imo. I don't think anyone was asking for this movie, but I also think people got so used to Pixar releasing on Disney+ (and those films were all pretty successful releases) that it worked to their detriment.
 
Nick said:
Lightyear and Bob's Burgers were just straight up bombs. There's really no way around that. The Bob's Burgers Movie is a delayed movie that was supposed to be released in 2020 and I think it would've done better, and Lightyear was a complete cash grab. No reason for the movie to exist and it had an extremely confusing premise.

Doctor Strange 2 and Thor 4 though... those are both bonafide box office hits. Strange dropped 67% and is the 8th highest domestic grossing MCU film with $411M domestic and has $954M Worldwide. Thor 4 didn't open as high as Strange and fell 68%, but it has a 10-day total of $233M domestic and is crushing it overseas with $712M worldwide, putting it on pace to beat both the domestic and worldwide totals of Thor: Ragnarok at the box office as the highest grossing Thor movie.

I think Disney should just not announce how long their movies are going to play in theater before going to Disney+ (much like Top Gun: Maverick) and they'd probably get more repeat showings, but I don't think anyone is going to argue with the box office receipts Marvel is bringing in. The only success Fox has had in theaters since Disney acquired them is Free Guy, but Pixar having this kind of showing is a culmination of a lot of things imo. I don't think anyone was asking for this movie, but I also think people got so used to Pixar releasing on Disney+ (and those films were all pretty successful releases) that it worked to their detriment.
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Quick correction, Thor is actually at 498m right now. The 712m number is an error from Box Office Mojo (sidebar: everyone should stop using Box Office Mojo and start using the-numbers.com instead. It's a cleaner UI, has a neat box office projection graph and is less prone to wild errors).

Thor will probably end up *okay* and outgross Ragnarok-sans-China, but the drops we're seeing in phase 4 are the worst in Marvel history, even for the movies that shouldn't require relentless spoiler avoidance. I don't know how much of that is streaming and changing audience habits versus audiences getting bored by uncharacteristically poor quality and the lack of a big overarching story.
 
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rageofthegods said:
the drops we're seeing in phase 4 are the worst in Marvel history, even for the movies that shouldn't require relentless spoiler avoidance. I don't know how much of that is streaming and changing audience habits versus audiences getting bored by uncharacteristically poor quality and the lack of a big overarching story.
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It's hard to compare really because Disney+ didn't exist during Phase 3 and then they started off Phase 4 with a Day/Date release on Disney+. I do think Disney+ simply existing and COVID shortening the theatrical window from 90 days to 45 has really effected the Phase 4 performance. Many people just don't go anymore since Disney is so predictable at dropping theatrical films 45 days after release on streaming now.

Unless it's a film with heavy buzz, high rewatchability, and you don't want to be spoiled like say No Way Home, then I think that's why the drops have been so high. But even No Way Home's drop was big. Marvel films are always going to have heavy opening weekends, but the problem in Phase 4 is the lack of repeat viewings. Part of that imo is due to lack of quality and part is because of Disney+. The only Marvel film in Phase 4 I saw multiple times in theaters was No Way Home (3-4 times).
 
Nick said:
It's hard to compare really because Disney+ didn't exist during Phase 3 and then they started off Phase 4 with a Day/Date release on Disney+. I do think Disney+ simply existing and COVID shortening the theatrical window from 90 days to 45 has really effected the Phase 4 performance. Many people just don't go anymore since Disney is so predictable at dropping theatrical films 45 days after release on streaming now.

Unless it's a film with heavy buzz, high rewatchability, and you don't want to be spoiled like say No Way Home, then I think that's why the drops have been so high. But even No Way Home's drop was big. Marvel films are always going to have heavy opening weekends, but the problem in Phase 4 is the lack of repeat viewings. Part of that imo is due to lack of quality and part is because of Disney+. The only Marvel film in Phase 4 I saw multiple times in theaters was No Way Home (3-4 times).
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The issue is where is the quantifiable data proving people are watching the marvel films when they drop on Disney+/PVOD...we don't really have evidence of that like we did with Encanto/Turning Red. Even looking at the 5 day numbers....2.1 million tuned in the first 5 days worldwide when it launched on Disney+....comparison to other films doesn't suggest people ware waiting for streaming.

Its doing the same as day and release films did during the pandemic.
 
quinnmac000 said:
The issue is where is the quantifiable data proving people are watching the marvel films when they drop on Disney+/PVOD...we don't really have evidence of that like we did with Encanto/Turning Red. Even looking at the 5 day numbers....2.1 million tuned in the first 5 days worldwide when it launched on Disney+....comparison to other films doesn't suggest people ware waiting for streaming.

Its doing the same as day and release films did during the pandemic.
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The two things aren't really related. I said Disney+ played a part, yes, but you are looking at it the wrong way.

I think the main thing is that people are going opening weekend. A lot of people. This leads to an extremely front-loaded opening weekend for Marvel films. However, in prior phases, I know I would go see these movies 2-3 times with different friend groups. That's not happening anymore and it seems it's not happening with a lot of people. I don't go multiple times unless a movie is great since I know i'll just be able to watch it on Disney+ in a month and a half.

Also, those 5-day numbers don't mean anything when relating to people who've already seen the movie and want to watch again. If you've already seen it, you're likely not in a rush to watch the movie as soon as it's on streaming, right? That means you may wait a week or even more. I know I have sometimes. Just did with Multiverse of Madness actually.

The real problem is that for instance with Thor 4. Let's say I didn't want to go to a theater. I can almost guarantee you that it'll start streaming on Disney+ on August 24th, two days after the 45 day window is up (and a Wednesday release). Hell, for Wakanda forever, I can completely ignore the November 11th release date and just act like the real release date for the movie is Early January like Eternals had.

The point is, I shouldn't be able to tell you exactly when a movie is going to hit streaming before it even hits theaters and the fact that companies like Disney and Warner publicly let consumers know these things hurts repeat business in theaters.
 
AlexanderMBush said:
Coming back to this, I wonder how Disney is feeling following the past few months. Even more than Universal, every single film they have been releasing, has failed in some way or shape to maintain it's grip in the box office after it's first weekend, going above 60% in the drop off of second weekend returns.

Lightyear came in with a 65% drop-off, Bob's Burgers had the lowest at 62%, with both Doctor Strange and Thor: Love and Thunder respectively dropping by 67% and 68% respectively. This is not an isolated aspect, and is throughout the company as a whole. I wonder if in response, Disney may begin leaning to return to the longer window points from theatrical to DTC/Streaming, going back to 60 day windows as compared to 45 day windows.
Click to expand...
A big drop-off is the norm for films in their second week. When a fitm opens on 4,000 screens all at once, its to get everything the first weekend. Remember, the longer a film runs in a theater, the lower the percentage the studio gets. This is especially true of blockbuster movies. These films are called "front loaded: for a reason. Since these films have started opening in massive releases, its been the norm. Its very very rare for a film to have a low drop rate in a second week.
 
OLSinFLA said:
A big drop-off is the norm for films in their second week. When a fitm opens on 4,000 screens all at once, its to get everything the first weekend. Remember, the longer a film runs in a theater, the lower the percentage the studio gets. This is especially true of blockbuster movies. These films are called "front loaded: for a reason. Since these films have started opening in massive releases, its been the norm. Its very very rare for a film to have a low drop rate in a second week.
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I could bring up Top Gun: Maverick, the widest PG-13 release ever, and talk about how that film took until week 4 to fall to the box office grossing weekend that Thor 4 just had in weekend 2. But I realize Top Gun is a rare performing blockbuster.

So let's just look at the box office drops in the Thor franchise:
Thor - 47.2% (3,963 screens)
Thor: The Dark World - 57.3% (3,841)
Thor: Ragnarok - 53.5% (4,080)
Thor: Love and Thunder - 68.1% (4,375)

Let's go a bit further and look at the four Avengers movies + Civil War. Thor is in all of these movies as well:
The Avengers - 50.3% (4,349 screens)
Avengers: Age of Ultron - 59.4% (4,276)
Captain America: Civil War - 59.5% (4,226)
Avengers: Infinity War - 55.5% (4,474)
Avengers: Endgame - 58.7% (4,662)

Now finally, let's break down the average drop by phase. As you can see, Phase three films rivaled the phase one drops while Phase four films are seeing a drop over 9% higher at 64.5% on average. If you can't see something is off in Phase Four from how the rest of the MCU has performed, then you're just looking the other way at this point.

Phase One: -54.3% (6 films, 4,005 average screens)
Phase Two: -57.3% (6 films, 4,044 screens)
Phase Three: -55.2% (11 films, 4,296 screens)
Phase Four (so far): -64.5% (6 films, 4,318 screens)
 
Nick said:
I could bring up Top Gun: Maverick, the widest PG-13 release ever, and talk about how that film took until week 4 to fall to the box office grossing weekend that Thor 4 just had in weekend 2. But I realize Top Gun is a rare performing blockbuster.

So let's just look at the box office drops in the Thor franchise:
Thor - 47.2% (3,963 screens)
Thor: The Dark World - 57.3% (3,841)
Thor: Ragnarok - 53.5% (4,080)
Thor: Love and Thunder - 68.1% (4,375)

Let's go a bit further and look at the four Avengers movies + Civil War. Thor is in all of these movies as well:
The Avengers - 50.3% (4,349 screens)
Avengers: Age of Ultron - 59.4% (4,276)
Captain America: Civil War - 59.5% (4,226)
Avengers: Infinity War - 55.5% (4,474)
Avengers: Endgame - 58.7% (4,662)

Now finally, let's break down the average drop by phase. As you can see, Phase three films rivaled the phase one drops while Phase four films are seeing a drop over 9% higher at 64.5% on average. If you can't see something is off in Phase Four from how the rest of the MCU has performed, then you're just looking the other way at this point.

Phase One: -54.3% (6 films, 4,005 average screens)
Phase Two: -57.3% (6 films, 4,044 screens)
Phase Three: -55.2% (11 films, 4,296 screens)
Phase Four (so far): -64.5% (6 films, 4,318 screens)
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Here's a few more. Notice the total gross though vas the drop. And remember, now its post-pandemic so a good chunk of the crowds are still not going to the theater. On an average, opening weekend can account for as much as 60% of the total gross of a blockbuster film.

Jurassic World 49% ($402 million) 4,274

Furious 7 59% ($251 million) 4,004

Rouge One 58% ($286 million) 4,157

Dfr strange 49% ($152 million) 3,882

Finding Dory 45% ($286 million) 4,305

Captain Marvel 57% ($264 million) 4,310

Thor Dark World 57% ($ 145 million) 3,841

Hunger Games 62% ($248 million) 4,137

Iron Man 2 60% ($221 million) 4,105

Guardians 55% ($176 million) 4,080



Old timers:

Jurassic Park 18.2% ($120 million) 2,404

Star Wars — opened at 35 theaters. Second weekend 157. Did not hit over 1,000 until week 11. So second week doubled gross but tripled the number of theaters.

Jaws 3.6% ($21 million) 409 <this was considered the first ‘wide release’)

Avatar 1.8% ($212 million) 3,452 - holds the record for the lowest drop of any wide release. It was so small the analysts didn’t believe it. Even in week 3 it dropped only 9%



The biggest drops are usually blockbusters, horror films and animated. Dramas are usually rolled out slowly.
 
OLSinFLA said:
The biggest drops are usually blockbusters, horror films and animated. Dramas are usually rolled out slowly.
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Yeah, i'm not arguing with you on that. I don't know what that random assortment of films you gave me is even supposed to mean as it all falls within the average drops for the priors MCU phases as I was saying.

But i'll give you the top 10 films of 2022:
1. Top Gun: Maverick - 28.9% ($617.9) - 4,735 theaters
2. Doctor Strange 2 - 67% (411.1) - 4,534
3. The Batman - 50.4% ($369.3) - 4,417
4. Jurassic World: Dominion - 59.2% ($359.7) - 4,676
5. Minions 2 - 56.9% ($262.5) - 4,391
6. Thor: Love and Thunder - 68.1% ($233.1) - 4,375
7. Spider-Man: No Way Home - 67.5% (231.8) - 4,206
8. Sonic the Hedgehog 2 - 59.4% (190.8) - 4,234
9. Uncharted - 47.7% ($148.6) - 4,275
10. Lightyear - 64.1% ($115.1) - 4,255
11. Elvis - 40.9% (106.2) - 3,906

I included Elvis in the 11 spot above since No Way Home is technically a 2021 film, but the money I put on there is strictly it's 2022 gross just like every other film. As you can see from this year's top 10, the only movies to fall even into the 60% range at all are either MCU movies or Pixar. So let's not act like this is normal. Blockbuster movies are happy with a 55% drop normally, but the MCU hasn't stayed below 60% since Shang-Chi had a 54% drop last September.

Green = Healthy/Long Legs
Yellow = Average
Red = Below average/Shorter Legs (No Way Home is an exception to this as its second weekend was wonky with Christmas being on a Saturday).
 
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