Theatrical Future/PVOD Thread

[AlexanderMBush]

Breaking every expectation it was having, Venom, has broken pandemic records with 90.1 million dollars domestically.

 

[Nick]

The box office finally seems to be back, at the very least for big name movies that people are excited about.

 

[TheGentTrent]

The box office finally seems to be back, at the very least for big name movies that people are excited about.

Which is why it makes no sense to me that the studios are still working to shrink the theatrical window more and more.

 

[Nick]

Which is why it makes no sense to me that the studios are still working to shrink the theatrical window more and more.

Well, typically a blockbuster movie makes the vast majority of it's money in the first three weekends, so I understand it with everyone moving to streaming. Everyone has a streaming service pretty much and they all want to get their movies on their service fast.

That said, pretty much all of Europe can watch Free Guy for no extra charge on Disney+ now, as it went onto the service last week on Day 46. I watched it over the weekend since it was just sitting there and while I did pay $5 to go see it at a matinee, it felt so odd to be watching a movie on streaming that's still in theaters and still doing pretty decent business for a movie at the end of it's second month.

 

[Nick]

This is from Dan Murrell on his Charts with Dan weekly show. It's an interesting compilation of the HBO Max films that have debited at #1 and how they've faired in their second week. He also added the HBO Max average second week drop (62%) and Average Streaming average drop in second week, which is 60% (so think Black Widow, Mulan, Raya, Halloween Kills, Jungle Cruise, and a few movies on Paramount+). The average drop in the second week for a theatrical exclusive is 54%.

 

[AlexanderMBush]

In what might be the first win for Disney/Sony on Marvel projects, No Way Home is seemingly poised to be the first Marvel film to break through China.

‘Spider-Man: No Way Home’ Likely First Phase Four Marvel Film to Hit China

'Spider-Man: No Way Home' Chinese poster signals it may be the first MCU Phase Four film to pass government approvals to enter China.

variety.com

 

[TheGentTrent]

In what might be the first win for Disney/Sony on Marvel projects, No Way Home is seemingly poised to be the first Marvel film to break through China.

‘Spider-Man: No Way Home’ Likely First Phase Four Marvel Film to Hit China

'Spider-Man: No Way Home' Chinese poster signals it may be the first MCU Phase Four film to pass government approvals to enter China.

variety.com

This could definitely help push it to become the first billion-dollar earner since the pandemic started.

 

[Nick]

This is absolutely hilarious in how off base he is.

 

[Tobias]

This is absolutely hilarious in how off base he is.

Yeah, there's a lot of things you can point to the film bombing, such as...

- The marketing (In many cases, lack of.). Personally, for me, I don't recall seeing very many ads for this. An I'm noticing a ton of comments of folks who really didn't hear about this film until this very article!

- The subject matter. A film about someone challenging their friend to a duel over rape accusations is not one I see having a wide appeal to folks.

I feel those two factors are key reasons why the filmed bombed, and you can add others like The Pandemic. (Duh) or it's 2.5 hour runtime (less screenings.).

There's also the obvious factor that for a film that's geared towards an older audience, the older audience themselves didn't show up for the film, which really makes the jab at Millennials even more off base. Part of it could be due to the Pandemic, but for the ones who did go out to theaters...they saw No Time to Die, instead.

 

[Nick]

- The marketing (In many cases, lack of.). Personally, for me, I don't recall seeing very many ads for this. An I'm noticing a ton of comments of folks who really didn't hear about this film until this very article!

Disney has been dropping a lot of Fox movies in theaters with very little marketing to minimize the expected loss that the movies will take on during this Covid-era. They marketed Free Guy heavily since they actually believed in it, but they haven't truly believed in most of the Fox movies on their slate enough to give them a good marketing push.

 

[Legacy]

So, theaters are canceling showings of Nightmare Alley in order to show more Spider-Man.

Looks like that film should have gone straight to streaming…>

 

[Nick]

So, theaters are canceling showings of Nightmare Alley in order to show more Spider-Man.

Looks like that film should have gone straight to streaming…>

Nightmare Alley was thought to be an awards contender by Disney, thus it needed at least a limited theatrical run. But opening against Spider-Man was NOT the move.

 

[quinnmac000]

Nightmare Alley was thought to be an awards contender by Disney, thus it needed at least a limited theatrical run. But opening against Spider-Man was NOT the move.

Its also a remake of a fantastic film from 1947....Disney scheduled two remakes of films one week apart

 

[Nick]

Its also a remake of a fantastic film from 1947....Disney scheduled two remakes of films one week apart

It should've opened in New York and LA in November to get it eligibility for any awards hopes they thought it had and then debut the movie on Hulu during the first weekend of December, when the only movies playing in theaters were holdovers and it was a really slow time. The movie at least would've gotten some attention as opposed to now.

I get why they scheduled West Side Story for when they did. I think they were basically thinking if they open it on the 10th, that gives it 2 weeks of open "previews" before Christmas, when Adults going to the movies really spikes typically and they were hoping it'd play the long game or that with so many people going to see Spider-Man, it would lead to people sticking around and seeing WSS, too.

But as i've laid out, the MCU crowd is not the WSS crowd. The WSS was very old on average. compare that to NWH, which is seeing 70% of it's business from the 18-34 crowd and once again, you can see the point I laid out last week. Older people have been the ones more timid about returning to movie theaters so far while younger people (younger mend in particular) seem to have no issue. I personally just think doing West Side Story again and giving it such a high budget thinking you could make a ROI was the foolish thing from the start. The movie may be good, but it's not what today's audience is willing to go to a theater for.

 

[OLSinFLA]

Disney wanted to get a week's run in IMAX theaters... and then wait for Christmas and award season to (hopefully) pick up some steam.

 

[Nick]

Disney wanted to get a week's run in IMAX theaters... and then wait for Christmas and award season to (hopefully) pick up some steam.

I do also think that there was some logic to getting the movie in theaters before No Way Home (obviously they hoped for a higher opening) so that West Side Story could play as counter-programming to NWH, given that this was the most amount of people that have been in theaters all at once since the same weekend back in 2019 back when The Rise of Skywalker opened. NWH had a much higher opening than I think anyone thought was possible just a few weeks ago even though, and thus screenings for WSS were pulled to add more room for NWH given those showings were selling out and WSS was playing to empty theaters.

 

[Nick]

Basically all of Canada closing/going into curfews and movie theaters are closing in full. In Ontario, where Toronto is located (the third largest movie market in North America), is among the closures. With no big new movies coming out in January now besides Scream, I kinda think it’d be best if Scream was either pushed back or given a PVOD release along with hitting Paramount+ 30 days later.

If that happened, closing theaters makes good business sense anyway seeing as there’s nothing on the horizon.

 

[Allison]

I kinda think it’d be best if Scream was either pushed back or given a PVOD release along with hitting Paramount+ 30 days later.

I’m hoping for this outcome as well, I have no desire right now to sit in a movie theater (and still haven’t been to the movies since before the pandemic) so, for me, I’d really love to see Scream get a PVOD &/or Paramount+ release.

 

[Nick]

I’m hoping for this outcome as well, I have no desire right now to sit in a movie theater (and still haven’t been to the movies since before the pandemic) so, for me, I’d really love to see Scream get a PVOD &/or Paramount+ release.

I’ve been to a theater quite a few times in the past few months. I think five in total. I’ve seen Free Guy, Eternals (and I fell asleep during that showing), and No Way Home 3x. If you count the movies I saw in the movie theater on my Disney cruise, then it’s eight times I’ve been to a movie theater in the past few months. You have to add Jungle Cruise, Shang-Chi, and a second viewing of Eternals.

Some of the NWH showings were a little dicey, but I guess I’ve felt comfortable enough around people since I have 3 doses. I mean, hell, I went on two cruises last year and to multiple sold out MLB Playoff games, so I haven’t exactly been staying away from people.

 

[Allison]

I’ve been to a theater quite a few times in the past few months. I think five in total. I’ve seen Free Guy, Eternals (and I fell asleep during that showing), and No Way Home 3x. If you count the movies I saw in the movie theater on my Disney cruise, then it’s eight times I’ve been to a movie theater in the past few months. You have to add Jungle Cruise, Shang-Chi, and a second viewing of Eternals.

Some of the NWH showings were a little dicey, but I guess I’ve felt comfortable enough around people since I have 3 doses. I mean, hell, I went on two cruises last year and to multiple sold out MLB Playoff games, so I haven’t exactly been staying away from people.

I’ve got my booster as well and have visited the parks since they’ve reopened, I just personally wasn’t the biggest fan of going to the movies pre-pandemic so I personally wouldn’t be opposed to more PVOD releases at least in the immediate future.