Since
Nah, Fallow's right, usually it takes about 2.5x to 3x the budget of a film to breakeven depending on how much money comes from overseas (the revenue split is lower for Overseas markets compared to domestic ones due to middlemen, currency differences, etc). Obviously, every film is different, but for almost every blockbuster out there, the marketing budget is at least as big as the film budget itself.
Wrt to theatrical splits, it's alot more ad hoc than people usually acknowledge, but remember, the amount a studio gets goes down as time goes on. For most blockbusters, studios make about 33% of the total BO on opening weekend; for the rest of that 67% of the BO, their split of the revenue steadily declines each week. Usually the average split shakes down to about 55% for domestic theaters and 40% for overseas, which is what the rule of thumb is. FB2 is actually pretty interesting because it made a much bigger percentage of its overall box office on opening weekend than is usual, but also, you gotta also remember that FB2 had the lowest opening weekend of any Potter film and also
the lowest Cinemascore. People did not turn out for this one in very high numbers, and they didn't tell their friends to go in very high numbers either. Comparing international gross is tricky because the international market has grown so much in the past ten years, but in terms of domestic gross at least, FB2 is the lowest by a wiiiiiiiide margin, and that's a worrying place for the franchise to be in imho.
I think it's instructive to look at the
profit breakdown for the first movie. Despite having a 150m higher worldwide gross, FB1 only made about 164.7m in profit; nothing to sneeze at, certainly, but that's less than A Star is Born. Using the 55%/40% rule of thumb, FB2 made about 76.7m less at the BO on a budget that's 20m higher. It still made money, certainly, but like, Shazam profits.
And as for it being movie 2/5, well, franchises tend to go down with each successive installment, with a few big exceptions like X-Men and the MCU. I think FB3 is a big risk right now.