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Universal's Epic Universe Wish List & Speculation

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I'm not convinced of Nintendo in Kidzone yet either, but IMO they need to get Nintendo open by 2024 one way or another. It's the closest thing they have to "shovel ready", and opening only Velocicoaster in the next 4+ years would be completely noncompetitive against Disney's slate of Rat, Tron, Guardians, Play pavilion, and eventual Splash replacement, or the cheaper additions that can be added by regional (six flags/cedar fair) parks.

They may have been a few months behind on EU, but I haven't seen anything that would suggest they had suffered significant (6+ month) delays before Covid hit. And now they're getting a long chance to catch up on the infrastructure projects and continue progressing through the permitting process. If they get the green light in January I see no reason that they can't make a summer 2024 opening if construction is anywhere close to the pace of Universal Beijing.

There's a third option, while nuts, would meet the 2024 requirement. That is to build SNW at the EU site and enough infrastructure to support it solo until the rest of the park is constructed. With each piece of EU isolated, SNW could be constructed and people bused in from their current campus without having the rest of the park ready. It'd be absolutely crazy, and I doubt this would even be under consideration, but here it is.
 
There's a third option, while nuts, would meet the 2024 requirement. That is to build SNW at the EU site and enough infrastructure to support it solo until the rest of the park is constructed. With each piece of EU isolated, SNW could be constructed and people bused in from their current campus without having the rest of the park ready. It'd be absolutely crazy, and I doubt this would even be under consideration, but here it is.
:lmao:
 
There's a third option, while nuts, would meet the 2024 requirement. That is to build SNW at the EU site and enough infrastructure to support it solo until the rest of the park is constructed. With each piece of EU isolated, SNW could be constructed and people bused in from their current campus without having the rest of the park ready. It'd be absolutely crazy, and I doubt this would even be under consideration, but here it is.
Siri, what's the word for "not on any planet with a yellow sun?"
 
There's a third option, while nuts, would meet the 2024 requirement. That is to build SNW at the EU site and enough infrastructure to support it solo until the rest of the park is constructed. With each piece of EU isolated, SNW could be constructed and people bused in from their current campus without having the rest of the park ready. It'd be absolutely crazy, and I doubt this would even be under consideration, but here it is.

Heh. I proposed the same thing (in addition to the WW stuff) and got called Eisner.

Regardless, that’s the advantage of doing additions in the parks you already have over building a new park.
 
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There's a third option, while nuts, would meet the 2024 requirement. That is to build SNW at the EU site and enough infrastructure to support it solo until the rest of the park is constructed. With each piece of EU isolated, SNW could be constructed and people bused in from their current campus without having the rest of the park ready. It'd be absolutely crazy, and I doubt this would even be under consideration, but here it is.
A park opening without one land being complete I could believe

A park opening without anything but one land being complete would be absolutely terrible, and tarnish Universal's reputation
 
They're not investing 5 billion just because of tax breaks or a specific politician.
Most major theme park investments are really close to the hurdle rate when you look at it from the accounting nerd angle. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that losing a tax break pushes the return either too low or close enough to the hurdle rate that you have to prove it out again.
 
There's a third option, while nuts, would meet the 2024 requirement. That is to build SNW at the EU site and enough infrastructure to support it solo until the rest of the park is constructed. With each piece of EU isolated, SNW could be constructed and people bused in from their current campus without having the rest of the park ready. It'd be absolutely crazy, and I doubt this would even be under consideration, but here it is.
To expand on "nope":

In doing that, they would incur all of the same costs of building SNW plus the extra costs of the infrastructure built just to support it as a stand-alone, but would probably get a much smaller attendance/revenue bounce than in USF or a complete EU. It would also likely be insufficient in driving the demand to justify building significantly more hotels on the south property until the remainder of the park is completed.

In my mind I think there are three general scenarios for how Covid recovery goes for UOR:
1. Scenario 1 would be that we get a vaccine approved this winter, it goes into distribution throughout spring, and the parks can relax distancing and mask policies for most of the 2021 summer allowing them to bounce back to post-Potter attendance levels quickly, and build back to 2019 attendance within a few years. In this scenario, it makes the most sense to move forward with EU for 2024 given high demand and the extent to which they have maxed out the current resort site. (More on that below)
2. Scenario 2 would include the types of outcomes where a vaccine takes 6-12 months longer and economic damage becomes greater, resulting in more substantial attendance impacts. Perhaps much of 2021 attendance is lost with 2020, and then a slower rebound to ~70% and an additional few years if not more to get back to 2019 levels. In these scenarios, I believe the best option would be SNW in Kidzone for 2023/24 because it would reduce CapEx compared a full EU while also being able to drive demand to help get the resort back to 2019 type attendance quicker.
3. Scenario 3 would be the unlikely and tragic case that we don't get a vaccine in the near term and masks/distancing become longer term realities. In this situation the current theme park business model is basically broken and we should be talking about ability to stay in business, not any sort of expansion.

I don't see an outcome where your proposal makes more business or financial sense than one of the above.

Most major theme park investments are really close to the hurdle rate when you look at it from the accounting nerd angle. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that losing a tax break pushes the return either too low or close enough to the hurdle rate that you have to prove it out again.
I don't doubt it, but I also think the circumstances of Epic Universe are fairly unique. Looking at where UOR was heading into 2020, it was apparent that they were quickly maxing out the current resort in terms of land available for auxiliary development. We as fans like to talk about how they could make the current parks even better (and rightfully so), but the business reality is that they were going to face diminishing returns building more big lands in USF and IOA because they couldn't also build more hotels, water parks, and entertainment district restaurants to generate revenue from the additional guests. Instead, with the opening of Epic Universe, they would suddenly have a whole bunch more land set up for hotels and other development, all anchored by the adjacent theme park featuring some of the biggest IPs around.

If they still have long term aspirations of major growth in the Orlando market, Epic Universe is the only option. I think that diminishes the impact that something like tax breaks has on whether the project goes forward.
 
To expand on "nope":

In doing that, they would incur all of the same costs of building SNW plus the extra costs of the infrastructure built just to support it as a stand-alone, but would probably get a much smaller attendance/revenue bounce than in USF or a complete EU. It would also likely be insufficient in driving the demand to justify building significantly more hotels on the south property until the remainder of the park is completed.

In my mind I think there are three general scenarios for how Covid recovery goes for UOR:
1. Scenario 1 would be that we get a vaccine approved this winter, it goes into distribution throughout spring, and the parks can relax distancing and mask policies for most of the 2021 summer allowing them to bounce back to post-Potter attendance levels quickly, and build back to 2019 attendance within a few years. In this scenario, it makes the most sense to move forward with EU for 2024 given high demand and the extent to which they have maxed out the current resort site. (More on that below)
2. Scenario 2 would include the types of outcomes where a vaccine takes 6-12 months longer and economic damage becomes greater, resulting in more substantial attendance impacts. Perhaps much of 2021 attendance is lost with 2020, and then a slower rebound to ~70% and an additional few years if not more to get back to 2019 levels. In these scenarios, I believe the best option would be SNW in Kidzone for 2023/24 because it would reduce CapEx compared a full EU while also being able to drive demand to help get the resort back to 2019 type attendance quicker.
3. Scenario 3 would be the unlikely and tragic case that we don't get a vaccine in the near term and masks/distancing become longer term realities. In this situation the current theme park business model is basically broken and we should be talking about ability to stay in business, not any sort of expansion.

I don't see an outcome where your proposal makes more business or financial sense than one of the above.


I don't doubt it, but I also think the circumstances of Epic Universe are fairly unique. Looking at where UOR was heading into 2020, it was apparent that they were quickly maxing out the current resort in terms of land available for auxiliary development. We as fans like to talk about how they could make the current parks even better (and rightfully so), but the business reality is that they were going to face diminishing returns building more big lands in USF and IOA because they couldn't also build more hotels, water parks, and entertainment district restaurants to generate revenue from the additional guests. Instead, with the opening of Epic Universe, they would suddenly have a whole bunch more land set up for hotels and other development, all anchored by the adjacent theme park featuring some of the biggest IPs around.

If they still have long term aspirations of major growth in the Orlando market, Epic Universe is the only option. I think that diminishes the impact that something like tax breaks has on whether the project goes forward.
Sounds pretty much right on with Scenario One, though I think it will be the 'combination' of your covid/economic situation along with the tax/investment implications. Ironically, as I said before, I think a fear that the really significant tax law changing could be a spur to get Universal to go back to an aggressive timeline, circa 2024/early 2025 latest, to get the most out of the tax break ramifications, which already are in effect with the spending on the site construction. Those breaks work immediately with spend, instead of years down the road, like before. I really am optimistic about a recovery starting mid 2021 also. There's a lot of pent up demand among the class of people that have the money to spend on expensive vacations. Once covid restrictions are eased they'll be out and about.We already saw that with heavy USA beach crowds this year where masks weren't really enforced. An interesting statistic is April/May had, by far, the largest USA personal savings rate since they've been keeping the stat. There's money out there, just no where to spend it. And the poor class has borne the brunt of these layoffs, so it really hasn't had a major effect, at this point in time, on those who can afford a Disney or Universal vacation. Bounce back in 2021 won't be to 2019 level attendance, but 2022 could be getting close to those numbers, while attendance should be fine by the earliest time Epic could open.....Of course there's always the vaccine doesn't work scenario, but that appears to be a minor possibility at this point since there's so many vaccine candidates that are looking just about ready, and effective......My main contention is that I think the probable election outcome, and a resultant economic recovery due to covid contained & new stimulus, along with the huge impact of the tax law for investments while it's still there, will all be the spur to get Comcast to complete the park by 2024,early 2025 at the latest. I'm in the optimistic camp of close as possible to the original timeline. Of course, all this is in line with Comcast being almost 100% on board with a new park, which I would guess they still are. There's been a lot of money spent/invested in acquisition, early land improvements, already. i don't think they'll walk away. Now, if they were a poor company, with inadequate cash flow, then that would be another story. But, they're not. The strength of business diversification is evident.
 
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For Epic Universe, if one of the desired properties loses popularity like How To Train Your Dragon for example, what do you think of a Nickelodeon themed land.

Couple of rides, eateries, and live participation shows (a Nickelodeon Game Lab where different live participation game shows (like Fear Factor Live) from many Nick game show properties are easy, accessible, and assembled together in 2-3 hours)
 
For Epic Universe, if one of the desired properties loses popularity like How To Train Your Dragon for example, what do you think of a Nickelodeon themed land.

Couple of rides, eateries, and live participation shows (a Nickelodeon Game Lab where different live participation game shows (like Fear Factor Live) from many Nick game show properties are easy, accessible, and assembled together in 2-3 hours)
The only Nickelodeon property I could see getting a land would be Spongebob...and I believe its time has passed

I'd be less worried about HTTYD losing popularity
 
The only Nickelodeon property I could see getting a land would be Spongebob...and I believe its time has passed

I'd be less worried about HTTYD losing popularity
Nickelodeon is really pushing for a Spongebob rebirth. The third movie was supposed to hit theaters this weekend. A couple spinoffs have been announced and one of them was heavily featured at Comic-Con this year.
 
Nickelodeon is really pushing for a Spongebob rebirth. The third movie was supposed to hit theaters this weekend. A couple spinoffs have been announced and one of them was heavily featured at Comic-Con this year.
A spinoff of Spongebob? That already sounds like a disaster haha

Honestly Universal has so much to play with with Illumination and Dreamworks, I'd rather those go in first as they are "in-house"

Save the Nick stuff for mall theme parks
 
Nickelodeon has literally been a dumpster fire since 2008

Universal benefited from the partnership in the 90's, now there's no reason for them to be approached

I grew up with Spongebob and would have LOVED to have seen Bakini Bottom get the Potter treatment.

I believe the ship has sailed on that though
I will die on the hill of “Toon Lagoon should’ve became Bikini Bottom”. Maybe the show doesn’t have the popularity it once did, but it’s equally as iconic as The Simpsons, and they built that land over a decade after the show peaked.

I still think you could build BB into EU, if for no other reason than to sell a massive amount of Krabby Patties and Chum Burgers.
 
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