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Attendance Tracker

  • Thread starter Thread starter Galaxy Defender
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Disneyhead

Disneyhead

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  • Aug 24, 2016
  • #741
WDW is at a make or break crossroads. It is such a huge operation that if they don't choose wisely, it could whirlpool out of control.
 
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Scott W.

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  • Aug 24, 2016
  • #742
Next Big Thing said:
They've already cut so much that if they continue with it for too much longer it will become impossible for the average guest NOT to notice and they will be forced to do the unthinkable.... actually invest in the parks.
Click to expand...

847630d09e862755a42341601e5b3b7624f1403d95f8cc65778b2881f54a359f.jpg
 
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Galaxy Defender

Galaxy Defender

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  • Aug 24, 2016
  • #743
Rumor has it there is another round of budget cuts coming to Disney parks. Anyone know details?
 
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Teebin

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  • Aug 24, 2016
  • #744
Does WDW still do it's own hotel laundry? I know that it's horticulture operation is over the top.

It makes no sense to me that they aren't making a tidy sum of money with all their hotels.
 
amityboattours

amityboattours

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  • Aug 24, 2016
  • #745
Galaxy Defender said:
Rumor has it there is another round of budget cuts coming to Disney parks. Anyone know details?
Click to expand...

Mickey's had his hours cut down, but in better news he's been given 2 comp tickets for his pals...
 
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Galaxy Defender

Galaxy Defender

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  • Aug 24, 2016
  • #746
amityboattours said:
Mickey's had his hours cut down, but in better news he's been given 2 comp tickets for his pals...
Click to expand...
Goofy, Donald and Minnie but only 2 comps. Someone is getting left home.
 
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SeventyOne

SeventyOne

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  • Aug 24, 2016
  • #747
Teebin said:
This makes me really sad to hear. Was it primarily due to their ad campaign?
Click to expand...

That was the rumor at the time. The "Universal Escape" tag line didn't do a good job of selling that IoA was a brand new park, not just some new ride with a bunch of random IPs. Plus, let's be honest, Marvel was at its lowest point, Popeye and Dudley Do-Right were already dated characters, and no Potter with its cult following yet.
 
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SeventyOne

SeventyOne

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  • Aug 24, 2016
  • #748
Galaxy Defender said:
If WDW opened a fifth park I think it would be more likely guests would pick and choose from the parks rather than going to all 5. I believe Disney realizes their best bet is to reinvest in their current parks.
Click to expand...

Average American takes 5 day vacations. Days to spend at a theme park truly are a zero sum game--one spent at IoA won't be spent at Disney Villain Kingdom, for example. Realistically Orlando as a market can't support 7 - 9 "follow the weenie, ride the ride, exit thru the gift shop" parks. Some of them just want draw the numbers. Even 10 years ago DAK just cannibalized guests from the three other parks.

Other than a boutique park--something with a capacity and admission price comparable to Discovery Cove--I doubt we ever see a 5th WDW gate. In fact, I don't think it's in Universal's best interest to open a third--will corner WDW and force them to fight back.
 
Galaxy Defender

Galaxy Defender

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  • Aug 24, 2016
  • #749
Bob Iger said back in the Q2 conference call that Disney was will willing to raise revenues at the expense of attendance. DL is doing fine in attendance so this was just about WDW. Why make such a statement if the decline was short term? This has stuck in my head so I did some research on previous quarters. I found out something interesting.

WDW is on track to have five straight quarters of attendance decline minimum. I've gone back to Q4 for last year to show comparison.

Q4 July-September 2015
Attendance is up 7% in domestic parks. Record attendance at both resorts.

Q1 Oct-Dec 2015
Attendance up 7% again at domestic parks after subtracting an extra week. Record attendance again.

Q2 Jan-Mar 2016
First quarter of decline of 2% at WDW. This is with Easter falling in this quarter early compared to a year before. Decline would have been much higher otherwise. DL ok. Iger makes statement about trading revenue for attendance.

Q3 Apr-Jun 2016
Second quarter of decline at WDW. Numbers hidden in combined domestic numbers. DL provides its numbers showing gains. Quick math puts WDW attendance decline at 7-8%. Blamed on lack of Easter. Loss is likely 4-5%.

Q4 July-Sep 2016
Probable third quarter of decline since this is comparing to strong gain/record attendance previous year. Attendance is obviously soft with WDW doing multiple ticket promotions.

Q1 Oct-Dec 2016
Probable fourth quarter of decline again compared to strong gain/record attendance the previous year. WDW has already started discounting rooms with discounts going right up to Christmas.

Q2 Jan-Mar 2017
Probable fifth quarter of decline. Last year was down 2% this quarter, but this year Easter is in Q2 compared to Q1 last year. Rumors already saying reservations look very soft for this period.

Q3 will have Easter in it compared to no Easter the previous year. This WDW's best chance for an attendance gain, but they will have nothing new opening until Fall with Pandora. Meanwhile they will be competing with Volcano Bay, Cabana towers and Fallon. Wild cards are Brazilian attendance, strength of the dollar and domestic economy.

Five likely quarters of attendance decline at WDW. They can avert this by sacrificing revenue for attendance, but that is not the stated plan. None of this stretched numbers or guessed on anything. The next three quarters are up against strong attendance gains and a lack of Easter. Can't see any of those quarters being a gain.

My source was Orlando Sentinel articles for each quarterly conference call.
 
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Parkscope Joe

Parkscope Joe

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  • Aug 24, 2016
  • #750
UAN17 said:
This time last year Disney looked untouchable...it's great that things are reversing a bit for no other reason that it might speed up investment. Which will keep uni and seaworld even more on their toes. Us themepark fans are the ultimate winners in this situation. I'm hoping Disneys attendance decline continues enough to increase projects.
Click to expand...

No, not really. No need to rewrite history, people were raising flags and calling some BS.
 
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Mad Dog

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  • Aug 24, 2016
  • #751
Galaxy Defender said:
Bob Iger said back in the Q2 conference call that Disney was will willing to raise revenues at the expense of attendance. DL is doing fine in attendance so this was just about WDW. Why make such a statement if the decline was short term? This has stuck in my head so I did some research on previous quarters. I found out something interesting.

WDW is on track to have five straight quarters of attendance decline minimum. I've gone back to Q4 for last year to show comparison.

Q4 July-September 2015
Attendance is up 7% in domestic parks. Record attendance at both resorts.

Q1 Oct-Dec 2015
Attendance up 7% again at domestic parks after subtracting an extra week. Record attendance again.

Q2 Jan-Mar 2016
First quarter of decline of 2% at WDW. This is with Easter falling in this quarter early compared to a year before. Decline would have been much higher otherwise. DL ok. Iger makes statement about trading revenue for attendance.

Q3 Apr-Jun 2016
Second quarter of decline at WDW. Numbers hidden in combined domestic numbers. DL provides its numbers showing gains. Quick math puts WDW attendance decline at 7-8%. Blamed on lack of Easter. Loss is likely 4-5%.

Q4 July-Sep 2016
Probable third quarter of decline since this is comparing to strong gain/record attendance previous year. Attendance is obviously soft with WDW doing multiple ticket promotions.

Q1 Oct-Dec 2016
Probable fourth quarter of decline again compared to strong gain/record attendance the previous year. WDW has already started discounting rooms with discounts going right up to Christmas.

Q2 Jan-Mar 2017
Probable fifth quarter of decline. Last year was down 2% this quarter, but this year Easter is in Q2 compared to Q1 last year. Rumors already saying reservations look very soft for this period.

Q3 will have Easter in it compared to no Easter the previous year. This WDW's best chance for an attendance gain, but they will have nothing new opening until Fall with Pandora. Meanwhile they will be competing with Volcano Bay, Cabana towers and Fallon. Wild cards are Brazilian attendance, strength of the dollar and domestic economy.

Five likely quarters of attendance decline at WDW. They can avert this by sacrificing revenue for attendance, but that is not the stated plan. None of this stretched numbers or guessed on anything. The next three quarters are up against strong attendance gains and a lack of Easter. Can't see any of those quarters being a gain.

My source was Orlando Sentinel articles for each quarterly conference call.
Click to expand...
Good research and again I agree with you.... I've always believed Iger's comment was corporate spin, since they already saw the future declining numbers and had already ordered staffing and other cuts to keep revenue up, to make the quarterly reports look OK. The only WDW park they've ever wanted to slow up attendance at is MK, not the other three. They do their damnest to divert the crowds but it doesn't work. Primarily because MK has lots of good attractions and the other three total only add up to what MK has attraction wise. Their past 10 years have caught up with them.
 
JoeCamel

JoeCamel

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  • Aug 24, 2016
  • #752
Teebin said:
Does WDW still do it's own hotel laundry? I know that it's horticulture operation is over the top.

It makes no sense to me that they aren't making a tidy sum of money with all their hotels.
Click to expand...

They have a huge laundry operation in the central shops. I don't know if this is all the hotels but they have semi's pull up with laundry to be done.

Maybe someone needs to investigate what is under the laundry?
 
B

bob albert

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  • Aug 24, 2016
  • #753
UAN17 said:
Cabana Bay has been a game changer. Cheaper then every single Disney hotel, and offering facilities matching and exceeding Disneys Moderates. More of the same will shake Disney.
Click to expand...
Not if you technically wanted to stay on site for as cheap as possible in the off season for a night and/or considering transpotation, extra magic hours, and the included buss to the airport, but this may or may not be a thing for many people.
 
B

bob albert

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  • Aug 24, 2016
  • #754
SeventyOne said:
Average American takes 5 day vacations. Days to spend at a theme park truly are a zero sum game--one spent at IoA won't be spent at Disney Villain Kingdom, for example. Realistically Orlando as a market can't support 7 - 9 "follow the weenie, ride the ride, exit thru the gift shop" parks. Some of them just want draw the numbers. Even 10 years ago DAK just cannibalized guests from the three other parks.

Other than a boutique park--something with a capacity and admission price comparable to Discovery Cove--I doubt we ever see a 5th WDW gate. In fact, I don't think it's in Universal's best interest to open a third--will corner WDW and force them to fight back.
Click to expand...
Except you are assuming that people actually pick something rather than add on another park chain to their vacation. Universal at this point needs to continue to make their brand a primary destination, and a third park might just do it for a lot of people, although disney will still have far and away more capacity overall. Years ago the total tourist market was not big enough to consider guests would have enough to do outside of disney. It is getting there now.
 
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Galaxy Defender

Galaxy Defender

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  • Aug 24, 2016
  • #755
Mad Dog said:
Good research and again I agree with you.... I've always believed Iger's comment was corporate spin, since they already saw the future declining numbers and had already ordered staffing and other cuts to keep revenue up, to make the quarterly reports look OK. The only WDW park they've ever wanted to slow up attendance at is MK, not the other three. They do their damnest to divert the crowds but it doesn't work. Primarily because MK has lots of good attractions and the other three total only add up to what MK has attraction wise. Their past 10 years have caught up with them.
Click to expand...
It was brilliant spin. Turn declining numbers into a plan.

I looked up the previous years of the two declining quarters. They were up against previous year attendance gains of roughly 3-4%. No way does WDW avoid attendance losses the next two quarters against 7% previous year gains. Declines against those gains could be ugly. Real ugly. That will be some interesting spin.
 
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Mad Dog

Mad Dog

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  • Aug 24, 2016
  • #756
Galaxy Defender said:
It was brilliant spin. Turn declining numbers into a plan.

I looked up the previous years of the two declining quarters. They were up against previous year attendance gains of roughly 3-4%. No way does WDW avoid attendance losses the next two quarters against 7% previous year gains. Declines against those gains could be ugly. Real ugly. That will be some interesting spin.
Click to expand...
They're sure trying to avoid declining numbers with those cast member give aways. So much for Iger saying they wanted less attendance (they actually did that back in March too when they saw the numbers were going to be bad. That softened it a bit probably, like this will). But August has been so bad it will take a miracle Sept. to turn those numbers positive..... Their corporate spin is, in actuality, just pure B.S. :lol: But some people will buy the story. :lol:
 
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Mad Dog

Mad Dog

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  • Aug 24, 2016
  • #757
Post double printed for some reason.
 
Galaxy Defender

Galaxy Defender

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  • Aug 24, 2016
  • #758
Mad Dog said:
They're sure trying to avoid declining numbers with those cast member give aways. So much for Iger saying they wanted less attendance (they actually did that back in March too when they saw the numbers were going to be bad. That softened it a bit probably, like this will). But August has been so bad it will take a miracle Sept. to turn those numbers positive..... Their corporate spin is, in actuality, just pure B.S. :lol: But some people will buy the story. :lol:
Click to expand...
It looks like the 2015 attendance gains are being erased, so the numbers look like 2014. The change was abrupt. WDW went from a strong Q1 with combined domestic 7% attendance growth to an estimated 5% drop in Q2. That is one heck of an attendance swing. No wonder they are backtracking on wanting less attendance with ticket deals and employee comp passes.
 
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Mad Dog

Mad Dog

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  • Aug 24, 2016
  • #759
Galaxy Defender said:
It looks like the 2015 attendance gains are being erased, so the numbers look like 2014. The change was abrupt. WDW went from a strong Q1 with combined domestic 7% attendance growth to an estimated 5% drop in Q2. That is one heck of an attendance swing. No wonder they are backtracking on wanting less attendance with ticket deals and employee comp passes.
Click to expand...
Just to clarify for those who may be unfamiliar with Disney's fiscal year. It starts on October. So Oct., Nov, Dec. is Disney's first quarter. You, me, and many others know that, but there may be a few readers unaware of their fiscal year. I just posted that so it doesn't confuse anyone. :)
 
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Galaxy Defender

Galaxy Defender

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  • Aug 24, 2016
  • #760
Mad Dog said:
Just to clarify for those who may be unfamiliar with Disney's fiscal year. It starts on October. So Oct., Nov, Dec. is Disney's first quarter. You, me, and many others know that, but there may be a few readers unaware of their fiscal year. I just posted that so it doesn't confuse anyone. :)
Click to expand...
I get confused sometimes myself. That's why in that long post I made a point to putting the months in next to the quarters. I need to make a habit of it.
 
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