Attendance Tracker

[SeventyOne]

What if there is no bounce back? Disney's adding things, they have a brand, at what point do we look at this and go "this is the inflection point".

Very possible. I think we've been seeing that with the growth in parties (my Dr. Phillips parent friends tell me they have replaced APs for a lot of families), but I think your theory of growth in FL providing a steady flow of new first-time APs has allowed WDW to cover that up.

Ultimately it comes down to how well SW: GE is executed, and whether it feels like a true game-changer to casual fans. The man-child CPs who showed up in costume every single Star Wars Weekend will love it no matter--will there be enough that the 11 year-old who did Jedi Training and rode Star Tours and built his own lightsaber last year feels the need to come back? And will crowd control be effective enough to keep his parents sane?

And, of course, prices so inflated now any sort of serious economic bump is going to do major damage.

 

[Ridgepole]

Well...you got a 50/50 chance on tagging an "inflection point". Is the "guess" for trending up or down, and on what timeline?

 

[Parkscope Joe]

Well...you got a 50/50 chance on tagging an "inflection point". Is the "guess" for trending up or down, and on what timeline?

I wonder if Disney has made it too difficult, too expensive, and too "optimized" (aka taking ride vehicles off the track during slow times so while there are fewer guests the waits feel like a busy day) that it overwhelms the quality of the product and guests stop going/go less.

I do recognize fully that this is a "nobody goes there anymore it's too crowded" situation too.

Very possible. I think we've been seeing that with the growth in parties (my Dr. Phillips parent friends tell me they have replaced APs for a lot of families), but I think your theory of growth in FL providing a steady flow of new first-time APs has allowed WDW to cover that up.

Ultimately it comes down to how well SW: GE is executed, and whether it feels like a true game-changer to casual fans. The man-child CPs who showed up in costume every single Star Wars Weekend will love it no matter--will there be enough that the 11 year-old who did Jedi Training and rode Star Tours and built his own lightsaber last year feels the need to come back? And will crowd control be effective enough to keep his parents sane?

And, of course, prices so inflated now any sort of serious economic bump is going to do major damage.

The fact I look at a WDW FL pass as a "good deal" (relative) says all we need to know about how WDW needs locals.

I think SWGE is going to be a huge hit, it's going to be the thing to "finally" top Diagon and Potter, but I wonder about the crowds because Star Wars has been in the parks for as long as I've been alive at this point. Potter opened up the market, Nintendo will open up the market, but will Star Wars really bring new and returning guests? Or will it be a Pandora like stuffing of who is already going? Maybe that's all Disney wants, but at a $1bn cost? Plus we have to look at the economy which appears to be at the point we could enter a recession by the time SWGE opens in DHS.

 

[OhHaiInternet95]

I wonder if Disney has made it too difficult, too expensive, and too "optimized" (aka taking ride vehicles off the track during slow times so while there are fewer guests the waits feel like a busy day) that it overwhelms the quality of the product and guests stop going/go less.

I do recognize fully that this is a "nobody goes there anymore it's too crowded" situation too.



The fact I look at a WDW FL pass as a "good deal" (relative) says all we need to know about how WDW needs locals.

I think SWGE is going to be a huge hit, it's going to be the thing to "finally" top Diagon and Potter, but I wonder about the crowds because Star Wars has been in the parks for as long as I've been alive at this point. Potter opened up the market, Nintendo will open up the market, but will Star Wars really bring new and returning guests? Or will it be a Pandora like stuffing of who is already going? Maybe that's all Disney wants, but at a $1bn cost? Plus we have to look at the economy which appears to be at the point we could enter a recession by the time SWGE opens in DHS.

I too, have been curious about the impact given that SW has ALWAYS been at DHS (well, it's been there for a very long time). If SW had never previously been seen in a park ever then hell yes, there'd be record crowds. Gonna be honest, at this point it's just better to pretend that only the OT exists.

It's constantly perplexed me that Potter (Hogsmeade) drew as huge crowds as it did, opening when the underemployment rate was 17%. Doesn't really make any sense, but I was ecstatic (probably the only one outside of Uni execs, LOL) to see those opening day crowds.

 

[Ridgepole]

I see it as a fine line they're walking. Bring in shear numbers or cut the wheat from the chaff and go DVC and high-end? Looking like the latter.

 

[Parkscope Joe]

I too, have always been curious about the impact given that SW has ALWAYS been at DHS. If SW had never previously been seen in a park ever then hell yes, there'd be record crowds. Gonna be honest, at this point it's just better to pretend that only the OT exists.

It's always perplexed me that Potter (Hogsmeade) drew as huge crowds as it did, opening when the underemployment rate was 17%. Doesn't really make any sense, but I was ecstatic (probably the only one outside of Uni execs, LOL) to see those opening day crowds.

Potter crowds were exacerbated by the incompetence of UOR ops at that point, but if DHS gets the attendance I believe they do (more around 7 mill than 10 mill) then a bump of 3-5 million a year is about Potter level.

 

[Nick]

Can we just call it "The Potter Effect"? I am curious if this hits APs on the same level Potter construction hit UOR. There's a certain ... cachet, for lack of a better term, in being a Disney AP. Will that keep guests buying in 2019, or do they take a breather?

I’m not buying an AP until close to when Galaxy’s Edge opens. No real incentive for me to have one right now. I enjoy Disney Springs and that’s enough of a Disney fill for me right now.

 

[GadgetGuru]

WDW APs fascinate me.

Disneyland can’t survive without their passholders. LA is the largest metropolitan area in the country, so Disneyland can be sustained by locals. There’s so many possible people that can buy passes.

Orlando isn’t nearly as big of a market and WDW costs a lot more to maintain. I always thought Disney could depriotize WDW APs and it wouldn’t affect their bottom line too much.

 

[Nick]

WDW APs fascinate me.

Disneyland can’t survive without their passholders. LA is the largest metropolitan area in the country, so Disneyland can be sustained by locals. There’s so many possible people that can buy passes.

Orlando isn’t nearly as big of a market and WDW costs a lot more to maintain. I always thought Disney could depriotize WDW APs and it wouldn’t affect their bottom line too much.

Orlando and surrounding areas are growing at an incredibly rapid pace however, so WDW is focusing more on making sure these people keep coming back.

 

[GadgetGuru]

Orlando is growing at an incredibly and surrounding areas are growing at an incredibly rapid pace however, so WDW is focusing more on making sure these people keep coming back.

I get that Orlando is growing like crazy. It’s still no LA in terms of population.

I always assumed that every decision Disneyland makes is to keep passholders coming back. They keep that resort going.

The locals aren’t enough to keep Disney World, even with the growth. I’ve been assuming that all of Disney World’s changes (MM+, price increases) are about getting more money from tourists. Those would all have the side effect of scaring off locals, who would find day trips more complicated and expensive as a result.

 

[Nick]

I get that Orlando is growing like crazy. It’s still no LA in terms of population.

I always assumed that every decision Disneyland makes is to keep passholders coming back. They keep that resort going.

The locals aren’t enough to keep Disney World, even with the growth. I’ve been assuming that all of Disney World’s changes (MM+, price increases) are about getting more money from tourists. Those would all have the side effect of scaring off locals, who would find day trips more complicated and expensive as a result.

I know there’s a difference and WDW isn’t dependent on them like DL. But WDW is making a larger attempt to make sure their APs come back year after year.

 

[SeventyOne]

I get that Orlando is growing like crazy. It’s still no LA in terms of population.

It's not just the Orlando market tho. For whatever reasons, Floridians seem more open to travel, at least on the weekends. Within 3 hours, you have half the fastest-growing metro areas in the U.S. (I know Cape Coral of all places #1, but Tampa/St Pete, Jax, Boca/West Palm). Still not LA by any stretch, but enough of a group to be a factor--might not float WDW for ever, but keeps it going downing the downturns.

 

[DragonSlayer]

I see it as a fine line they're walking. Bring in shear numbers or cut the wheat from the chaff and go DVC and high-end? Looking like the latter.

This is a really interesting point. It’s made me wonder though, is it equally possible they can have both? I think it’s pretty feasible for them to have enough high-end to market to that demographic and still fill the parks. The mix of where the numbers are coming from might change but I don’t think going high-end necessarily entails cutting out the numbers from the ‘other’ section of the market without replacement.

From my entirely unscientific observations this trip (and without getting into baseless stereotyping) the WDW crowd certainly felt like it was moving that way. Standing in Pandora and watching a guy buy a few drinks for a standard family of four and happily pay $40+ was a sight to behold, and it’s repeated all over the place.

 

[SeventyOne]

I see it as a fine line they're walking. Bring in shear numbers or cut the wheat from the chaff and go DVC and high-end? Looking like the latter.

Two problems with that plan. First, DVC is hardly "high end." (Talking real world prices, not clientele.) Once the initial buy-in is gone, which is year of, WDW finds itself having to provide a room in a resort that even in the real world would retail for $250 - $300 a night for under $100. Again, I hate to send anyone to WDWMagic, but Parentsof4 does a great job of illustrating this. DVC makes it harder to keep upscale resorts upscale.

Which ties into my second point, today's WDW is incapable of providing a true upscale experience. They refuse to keep up the monorails at their $600/night resorts. They transform signature dining locations into character meals. They basically acknowledged this fact by letting the Four Seasons come in.

 

[TDBLMT]

I’m not buying an AP until close to when Galaxy’s Edge opens. No real incentive for me to have one right now. I enjoy Disney Springs and that’s enough of a Disney fill for me right now.

You aren’t worried the rates are gonna jack up? How do you time it?

 

[natespf]

Paying $100 for a $300 room seems too good to be true (if you ignore the other fees paid).

 

[Nick]

You aren’t worried the rates are gonna jack up? How do you time it?

I know the rates are gonna jack up, but I’m saving over a year’s worth of pass money currently, so it’s not something I care too much about.

 

[Parkscope Joe]

Priceline Deals Into 2019: Vive La Values! - TouringPlans.com Blog

EVERYTHING IS FINE NOTHING TO SEE HERE

 

[Mad Dog]

Priceline Deals Into 2019: Vive La Values! - TouringPlans.com Blog

EVERYTHING IS FINE NOTHING TO SEE HERE

Yes, a big time signal....Plus Disney is offering special 4 park 4 day offers for various dates in 2019. This offer is open to everyone, not just Florida residents. They offered a similar package in winter/spring 2017 when they were expecting flat, or lower, attendance.

 

[OhHaiInternet95]

Priceline Deals Into 2019: Vive La Values! - TouringPlans.com Blog

EVERYTHING IS FINE NOTHING TO SEE HERE

Well, maybe this puts the "intentionally price people out to cut services" talk to rest?