Comcast 2nd Quarter 2023 results

[Mad Dog]

One point that we're all missing, and that Universal pointed out in their meeting on the report, is that International guest attendance remains down by 30%. That's probably similar with Disney. Europe and South America's economic recovery from covid disruptions lag way behind the US. Plus they suffer from the strength of the dollar, which negatively affects their prices, even though Disney and Universal offer them much better discount packages than they offer US guests. And both Universal and Disney have had to prop up their summer attendance with fairly heavy discounts, Disney on hotels and Florida resident tickets, and Universal on a very generous ticket discount. That reflects the weakness of this summer market. It will be interesting to see what happens in 2024 if International guests don't pick up. I'd guess Epic has little to no effect at this point since the general population is mostly unaware that it's being constructed. At this point in time, I'm guessing Universal's near future is a bit more better than WDW's.

 

[Jerroddragon]

One point that we're all missing, and that Universal pointed out in their meeting on the report, is that International guest attendance remains down by 30%. That's probably similar with Disney. Europe and South America's economic recovery from covid disruptions lag way behind the US. Plus they suffer from the strength of the dollar, which negatively affects their prices, even though Disney and Universal offer them much better discount packages than they offer US guests. And both Universal and Disney have had to prop up their summer attendance with fairly heavy discounts, Disney on hotels and Florida resident tickets, and Universal on a very generous ticket discount. That reflects the weakness of this summer market. It will be interesting to see what happens in 2024 if International guests don't pick up. I'd guess Epic has little to no effect at this point since the general population is mostly unaware that it's being constructed. At this point in time, I'm guessing Universal's near future is a bit more better than WDW's.

Good pointing that out

I hope International travel gets back up, but I feel like at least from the news I'm reading many countries aren't doing to well and not too much hope for them to be getting better anytime soon.

Also at least to me, it's still wayyyyyyyyyyyyyy too much to get out to Florida and stay there for it to be worth it before Epic Universe. So I think they need to get even better deals if they want more guests

 

[Mad Dog]

Good pointing that out

I hope International travel gets back up, but I feel like at least from the news I'm reading many countries aren't doing to well and not too much hope for them to be getting better anytime soon.

Also at least to me, it's still wayyyyyyyyyyyyyy too much to get out to Florida and stay there for it to be worth it before Epic Universe. So I think they need to get even better deals if they want more guests

I'm guessing Universal stays flat until summer of 2024 when they, hopefully, open up a new night show, a new parade, resume the Potter night shows (Potter might actually reopen late 2023), and open Dreamworks. Though neither one of those by themselves are significant attendance spurs, combined together they probably are. Then Epic in 2025, and Universal is off and running. 2022 and 2023 they basically lived off of revenge Covid travel and didn't really address the parks needs, except for the minor budgeted Minions/Villains stuff, and momentarily cut a lot of entertainment oriented stuff.

 

[Jerroddragon]

I'm guessing Universal stays flat until summer of 2024 when they, hopefully, open up a new night show, a new parade, resume the Potter night shows (Potter might actually reopen late 2023), and open Dreamworks. Though neither one of those by themselves are significant attendance spurs, combined together they probably are. Then Epic in 2025, and Universal is off and running. 2022 and 2023 they basically lived off of revenge Covid travel and didn't really address the parks needs, except for the minor budgeted Minions/Villains stuff, and momentarily cut a lot of entertainment oriented stuff.

I know I will be in Florida in 2025/2026 for sure for Epic Universe

So I assume a few people are like me waiting for that before going back to Florida and after that they are doing better. I think they realllllly need to lean into more local deals/AP stuff.

Disney also is not helping with its bare minimum approach, so sadly I think next year could be even less then this year but Japan will be getting DK and Mario at USH will keep the crowds high, so hopefully those offset another slow summer before Epic

 

[HandsomePete]

One point that we're all missing, and that Universal pointed out in their meeting on the report, is that International guest attendance remains down by 30%. That's probably similar with Disney. Europe and South America's economic recovery from covid disruptions lag way behind the US. Plus they suffer from the strength of the dollar, which negatively affects their prices, even though Disney and Universal offer them much better discount packages than they offer US guests. And both Universal and Disney have had to prop up their summer attendance with fairly heavy discounts, Disney on hotels and Florida resident tickets, and Universal on a very generous ticket discount. That reflects the weakness of this summer market. It will be interesting to see what happens in 2024 if International guests don't pick up. I'd guess Epic has little to no effect at this point since the general population is mostly unaware that it's being constructed. At this point in time, I'm guessing Universal's near future is a bit more better than WDW's.

Also, international visitors to Orlando (especially UK) generally have longer booking lead times than domestic visitors. Obviously there is no standard rule, but the main summer vacation booking period for domestic is December/January while for the UK specifically they often book 12-18 months out so it will naturally take longer to recover. I haven't looked at UK-MCO flights recently but I'm guessing capacity is down a lot too, between smaller planes flying fewer routes.

Many people prioritized Florida travel when things "got back to normal" there faster than other places. A lot of people who have the means are now prioritizing international travel (especially Europe, partially for the reverse reason you outlined above about the strength of the dollar).

We're definitely in regression to the mean territory. Honestly though, as long as it doesn't impact operating hours or what's open, I'd prefer the parks to regress a little more than just to pre-Covid levels because they were jammed.

 

[Mad Dog]

Also, international visitors to Orlando (especially UK) generally have longer booking lead times than domestic visitors. Obviously there is no standard rule, but the main summer vacation booking period for domestic is December/January while for the UK specifically they often book 12-18 months out so it will naturally take longer to recover. I haven't looked at UK-MCO flights recently but I'm guessing capacity is down a lot too, between smaller planes flying fewer routes.

Many people prioritized Florida travel when things "got back to normal" there faster than other places. A lot of people who have the means are now prioritizing international travel (especially Europe, partially for the reverse reason you outlined above about the strength of the dollar).

We're definitely in regression to the mean territory. Honestly though, as long as it doesn't impact operating hours or what's open, I'd prefer the parks to regress a little more than just to pre-Covid levels because they were jammed.

Definitely. My ten nights at WDW Disney mid to late April were quite enjoyable. Lines were reasonable, and I generally follow the Touring Plans finding that 'actual' wait times are generally 60 to 65% of the 'posted' wait times. And no need for Genie Plus if you don't spend 12 hours in the park, and avoid mid afternoon (heat & crowds) like we do. Afternoons are for the pool. Mornings and evenings for the parks, the way we do it. Keeps a vacation less stressful and more leisurely.....With International travel down, WDW is going to miss those long UK vacations in August & September. Lots of bucks being spent in better times. Also, Europe, especially the UK, is having a hard time getting inflation down. No where near as successful as the US.

 

[OhHaiInternet95]

Was at SWO just now (not for long--couldn't take the heat) and the parking lot was PACKED.

 

[GAcoaster]

They gave passholders two additional free tickets to boost attendance.

 

[Mad Dog]

Universal's huge summer discount is buy one day, get two free for Florida residents and 40% off hotel rooms for Florida residents. That's basically giving the store away. Propping up attendance this way shows how soft the Orlando theme park market really is.

 

[Bobharlem]

2024 is going to be interesting as that's the lull year before Epic, and if it's slower this year I expect next summer to be even moreso. 2025 will probably flip things around heavily. I expect another AP promotion to add on extra months (that stop just short of epic opening). Although how they handle APs with the add of Epic will be interesting.

Nothing really new other than Dreamworks may be interesting, unless they decide to make use of one of the vacant IOA theaters for next year.

 

[JungleSkip]

2024 is going to be interesting as that's the lull year before Epic, and if it's slower this year I expect next summer to be even moreso. 2025 will probably flip things around heavily. I expect another AP promotion to add on extra months (that stop just short of epic opening). Although how they handle APs with the add of Epic will be interesting.

Nothing really new other than Dreamworks may be interesting, unless they decide to make use of one of the vacant IOA theaters for next year.

USF is also getting a new parade and nighttime show next year, fwiw

 

[Jerroddragon]

USF is also getting a new parade and nighttime show next year, fwiw

I'm sure some will fly out for that, Why not wait a year and get all that plus a new park with like 6+ new E tickets and what are sounding like amazing new lands.

That is what's hard when you do such an exciting park, if they were opening SNW at one of the theme parks first I think it would draw people but since they put both Nintendolands in Epic, I bet next year is about the same in terms of guests if not less because the economy could be in a recession by then

 

[OhHaiInternet95]

I'm sure some will fly out for that, Why not wait a year and get all that plus a new park with like 6+ new E tickets and what are sounding like amazing new lands.

That is what's hard when you do such an exciting park, if they were opening SNW at one of the theme parks first I think it would draw people but since they put both Nintendolands in Epic, I bet next year is about the same in terms of guests if not less because the economy could be in a recession by then

To be fair, when is that not the case? 200 out of last 2…

That said, the parks are going to have to cater HARD to locals for the next ~21 months.

 

[Jerroddragon]

To be fair, when is that not the case? 200 out of last 2…

New Parks are tricky but......I think SNW opening next year would have bucked the trend

From the Theme parks mostly unaffected by everything noted on this earning call plus the insane numbers of Switches being sold/the Super Mario making more then Minions.
And I know I've been banging this drum for a while but it's time to strike with Nintendo, you get as many restaurants, characters,, attractions and lands that make sense in now when you see something like this.

Epic Universe with DK land, I don't think even needs SNW and think the Strategy or splitting up the IP to different parks while i sucks for guests makes money and would have had SNW opened next year at USO and then have DK opened after that with room for Luigi mansion attraction/area or another Mario land.

 

[OhHaiInternet95]

New Parks are tricky but......I think SNW opening next year would have bucked the trend

From the Theme parks mostly unaffected by everything noted on this earning call plus the insane numbers of Switches being sold/the Super Mario making more then Minions.
And I know I've been banging this drum for a while but it's time to strike with Nintendo, you get as many restaurants, characters,, attractions and lands that make sense in now when you see something like this.

Epic Universe with DK land, I don't think even needs SNW and think the Strategy or splitting up the IP to different parks while i sucks for guests makes money and would have had SNW opened next year at USO and then have DK opened after that with room for Luigi mansion attraction/area or another Mario land.

Regardless, even though there are other factors at play I truly believe people waiting on Epic is a part of it (certainly they had to anticipate this).

 

[JungleSkip]

Regardless, even though there are other factors at play I truly believe people waiting on Epic is a part of it (certainly they had to anticipate this).

Most normal people have no idea Epic Universe is a thing

 

[Nick]

Most normal people have no idea Epic Universe is a thing

And if they do, it’s probably because they either live in Orlando and can see construction or know someone like us who keep up with theme park *things*.

 

[UniversalRBLX]

Remember when Bob Iger said they wouldn't need to market SWGE because if they do it'll clog up the roads to Disneyland?

 

[Cup_Of_Coffee]

Remember when Bob Iger said they wouldn't need to market SWGE because if they do it'll clog up the roads to Disneyland?

Yes let’s spend BILLIONS then not even advertise it. Genius!

 

[Mad Dog]

Most normal people have no idea Epic Universe is a thing

YES. Anecdotal: As I've said before, during my long April vacation at WDW we engaged many guests in conversation. None of them had any inkling of a new Universal park under construction. One group was even staying at a hotel across the street from the construction site, and had no clue the construction was Epic. At this point in time, with the exception of the Universal internet community, Epic may well be the best kept secret out there.