Effects of Coronavirus (COVID-19) On Entertainment & Tourism Industry

[DK745]

Once the parks reopen will they keep the fingerprint scanner? You can wipe that down after every single person but they'll be going through lysol very quickly and some people will still be very hesitant to touch it since a whole queue of people are touching it all day, every day. I'm not sure what the alternative would be.

 

[Brian G.]

If we are assuming that parks will go to a reservation system, how do we think that will work with on site hotel guest?

We've got a trip booked in December, hotel reservations at least, but no tickets yet. I assume they will give priority to on site guest?

Im guessing hotel guests either get guaranteed spots or first dibs at rezzies. After that, it goes to AP’s and everyone else.

Once the parks reopen will they keep the fingerprint scanner? You can wipe that down after every single person but they'll be going through lysol very quickly and some people will still be very hesitant to touch it since a whole queue of people are touching it all day, every day. I'm not sure what the alternative would be.

They were already working on an alternative before all this. Wouldn’t be shocked if it’s installed already.

 

[Scott W.]

With all the restrictions in place in Shanghai, I just can’t see people paying full price to go.

 

[fryoj]

Im guessing hotel guests either get guaranteed spots or first dibs at rezzies. After that, it goes to AP’s and everyone else.

Can you imagine the opening windows for reservations? And you thought the 60 day window for FP's were brutal....

The interesting question will be will the capacities be high enough to serve all of their hotel guests? Then after that what about the swan/dolphin and DS hotels that get the on site benefits? Do they get an auto res? There's the DVC question too. Do they get auto reservations? Park hopping probably goes away as they won't want people reserving one park just to hop to another. I'd hate to be working customer service when all this happens.

 

[quinnmac000]

I'm going to say something unpopular but it needs to be said.

Chinese people embraced the suck, Koreans embraced the suck. Now these two countries are opening up. (almost everything is open in Korea including theme parks with people going to them). Embrace the suck in the states get the numbers down and then you can go out and do what you want.

 

[UniversalManiac]

It’ll be extremely interesting to see how the 14 day passes work with a reservation system. For the price of them, can’t see people paying it their access is restricted. It’ll also be interesting to see how the sellers of these tickets respond with refunds if the parks have limited access.

 

[HandsomePete]

After listening to the analysts discussing Disney after their earnings call and the suspension of dividends for 6 months, or longer, they basically were saying Disney needs to get their parks open.. It's really sounding like Disney doesn't have much of a choice and they're going to have to work with the hand dealt them to generate some revenue. Network and ESPN was their only bright spot, but that was before the collapse of ad revenue. So those numbers will probably also nosedive in this present April/May/ June quarter.

ESPN ad revenue and subscriber fees are about a 50/50 mix for total revenue... can't remember where I read it in the last few days, but decreases in production costs (no live sports to cover) have more than offset decreased ad revenue.

Their main problem would be if cable companies have contract clauses to get them out of sub fees.

 

[GadgetGuru]

ESPN ad revenue and subscriber fees are about a 50/50 mix for total revenue... can't remember where I read it in the last few days, but decreases in production costs (no live sports to cover) have more than offset decreased ad revenue.

Their main problem would be if cable companies have contract clauses to get them out of sub fees.

It hasn’t happened for sports yet, but some of the entertainment companies have been taking advantage of force majeur (act of god) clauses in contracts. Most contracts have them, but they’re never used.

It would be devastating for ESPN if this happened en masse

 

[Pirate Athos]

Can you imagine the opening windows for reservations? And you thought the 60 day window for FP's were brutal....

The interesting question will be will the capacities be high enough to serve all of their hotel guests? Then after that what about the swan/dolphin and DS hotels that get the on site benefits? Do they get an auto res? There's the DVC question too. Do they get auto reservations? Park hopping probably goes away as they won't want people reserving one park just to hop to another. I'd hate to be working customer service when all this happens.

And cast members where do they in this. One of the perks of working there was the free entry. It’s one of the reasons they give why cast members are paid so low. If cast members get bottom of the barrel picks for days to go how are they going to justify it as a perk and the continuing low pay?

 

[Jerroddragon]

Can you imagine the opening windows for reservations? And you thought the 60 day window for FP's were brutal....

The interesting question will be will the capacities be high enough to serve all of their hotel guests? Then after that what about the swan/dolphin and DS hotels that get the on site benefits? Do they get an auto res? There's the DVC question too. Do they get auto reservations? Park hopping probably goes away as they won't want people reserving one park just to hop to another. I'd hate to be working customer service when all this happens.

Hopefully Disney does something for APs....Some of those passes are 1,000 bucks and if you can't go thats kinda insane.

 

[Mad Dog]

ESPN ad revenue and subscriber fees are about a 50/50 mix for total revenue... can't remember where I read it in the last few days, but decreases in production costs (no live sports to cover) have more than offset decreased ad revenue.

Their main problem would be if cable companies have contract clauses to get them out of sub fees.

One issue that I received from a media insider. He said ESPN received considerable upfront money from major corporate sponsors prior to the covid closings for events that have since been cancelled. These major corporate sponsors demanded that Disney return the fees but Disney has been unable to recompense due to their cash flow issues. Those debts are not yet accounted for, and will probably either have to be paid or owed, plus bonus times, used against future fees. So, ESPN is probably in deep arrears. And then there's ABC and all those cable stations that are experiencing greatly reduced ad revenue.

 

[Nick]

I'm going to say something unpopular but it needs to be said.

Chinese people embraced the suck, Koreans embraced the suck. Now these two countries are opening up. (almost everything is open in Korea including theme parks with people going to them). Embrace the suck in the states get the numbers down and then you can go out and do what you want.

I often disagree with you, but man, this couldn't be more spot on imo.

Even worse than people not embracing it is that when in public, many aren't wearing masks. So not only are they not embracing, they're just straight up ignoring... which inevitably will prolong this situation here in the states.

 

[JungleSkip]

The interesting question will be will the capacities be high enough to serve all of their hotel guests? Then after that what about the swan/dolphin and DS hotels that get the on site benefits? Do they get an auto res? There's the DVC question too. Do they get auto reservations? Park hopping probably goes away as they won't want people reserving one park just to hop to another. I'd hate to be working customer service when all this happens.

I think these are all questions that won’t come into play for a while considering how few people will be traveling for the next 5-6 months

 

[Imperius]

Looked at flights to Tokyo for March 2021 and it’s $600 round trip from Orlando. Half of what I paid for last September. Planning on going back in 2021 or another country once this is all done. Think traveling abroad will be much cheaper if you can afford it for awhile.

 

[SeventyOne]

Re: masks. I get the desire for a magic bullet. But having worn a mask in upper 80s Florida humidity yesterday, this isn't it as far as theme parks go. Instantaneously renders glasses/sunglasses useless. And if the out-of-shape American general public is required to wear them around a park in August, guests are going to either drop from heat exhaustion (a far more immediate issue than COVID) or take them off in desperation. The parks will cover themselves with strongly worded disclaimers. But I just don't see masks being a viable solution in Orlando.

(By all mean please continue to wear them in grocery stores etc.)

:ears:

Re: reservations at WDW. The crowds aren't coming back for a while. Self-selecting fans on Twitter and message boards are not a reliable sample group. We're in a Depression with a third of workers unemployed, foreign guests are blocked out of the country for the foreseeable future, and a substantial number of domestic residents who still can afford rent are scared to leave their home, let alone get on a flying metal cootie tube. The CPs are all gone. Orlando residents are already starting to move out because even more than 30% are unemployed. Retirees (a not insignificant population in Florida) are being told not to visit.

If the Mouse could pull 25% of MK's capacity he'd dance up and down Main Street naked.

 

[fryoj]

I think the mask issue in the parks is a dead topic. We've already seen a Uni exec say that the are even considering whether they were going to *allow* guests to wear masks as thats been a longstanding policy. They are not forcing them unless the state or county makes them as a condition of reopening. The chances of that are non-zero but pretty close.

 

[JungleSkip]

I think the mask issue in the parks is a dead topic. We've already seen a Uni exec say that the are even considering whether they were going to *allow* guests to wear masks as thats been a longstanding policy. They are not forcing them unless the state or county makes them as a condition of reopening. The chances of that are non-zero but pretty close.

I think you’re putting a lot of stock into something said at the very first meeting on planning for reopening.

disney in their post today already said they’re looking at mask rules

A Message about Disney Parks from Chief Medical Officer Dr. Pamela Hymel

As you may have heard at Disney’s Q2 FY20 Earnings Results Webcast, our CEO Bob Chapek announced that Shanghai Disney Resort will begin the phased reopening of Shanghai Disneyland on May 11 – an encouraging sign for Disney parks and retail

disneyparks.disney.go.com

 

[Tobias]

Looked at flights to Tokyo for March 2021 and it’s $600 round trip from Orlando. Half of what I paid for last September. Planning on going back in 2021 or another country once this is all done. Think traveling abroad will be much cheaper if you can afford it for awhile.

In a speak of the devil moment, I'm pretty much looking at finally going to Tokyo in April of 2021. Considering I have a lot of ecredits to use after a cancelled Europe trip this year, I've got a nice boost in getting tickets. That and I've got a gut feeling if there's a Disney park I can comfortably visit, TDL is the one. If there's rules for wearing masks at the time, the park-goers are gonna' follow that.

 

[fryoj]

I think you’re putting a lot of stock into something said at the very first meeting on planning for reopening.

disney in their post today already said they’re looking at mask rules

A Message about Disney Parks from Chief Medical Officer Dr. Pamela Hymel

As you may have heard at Disney’s Q2 FY20 Earnings Results Webcast, our CEO Bob Chapek announced that Shanghai Disney Resort will begin the phased reopening of Shanghai Disneyland on May 11 – an encouraging sign for Disney parks and retail

disneyparks.disney.go.com

No I'm putting stock into statements made by Universal's CEO that were referenced in this thread a couple weeks ago. The reopening committee will likely put into effect whatever Disney and Universal tells them to.

Looking at mask rules is not the same as forcing guest to wear them. I still say the only way they do anything more than "strongly encourage" guests to wear masks is if somehow the state or county forces it.

 

[Happytycho]

I think the mask issue in the parks is a dead topic. We've already seen a Uni exec say that the are even considering whether they were going to *allow* guests to wear masks as thats been a longstanding policy. They are not forcing them unless the state or county makes them as a condition of reopening. The chances of that are non-zero but pretty close.

I'd agree that not wearing masks is a pretty "dead" topic