Effects of Coronavirus (COVID-19) On Entertainment & Tourism Industry

[Grabnar]

Population size + better testing...

Lot of epidemiologists in my feed begging the media to stop focusing on case counts... headlines like this disincentivize politicians from increasing testing capacity, when the truly important data points (percentage positive cases, hospitalizations) go buried...

Yeah, the lack of testing occurred to me after I posted. I couldn't find city-based numbers, but Texas as a whole has performed 1.6M tests for a population of 29M, and California has performed 3.5M tests for a population of 39.5 M. Texas is at 55.17 test/1000 people, and California is at 88.6/1000.

This is going to impact people way worse than 9/11 did economically. There is no immediate bounce back, even once there's a vaccine. With 9/11, it mostly just scared people off for a bit, but there wasn't a long-term economic impact for the most part. We bounced back relatively quick because people got over it. This is so much different because it's actually hitting the people HARD.

Write your representatives, U.S. people. This does not need to be as bad as the government is making it. Flat out. This is a conscious choice to put large corporations over the well-being of the population.

 

[Cup_Of_Coffee]

Saying the same thing over and over isn't helping this discussion at all. Speaking outside the forum admin role, you need to take a break from COVID talk.



I just wanted to add some perspective. I know you mean well - but this next year is going to be rough for a lot of people in Orlando, where people's livelihoods are going to be impacted. There are going to be some people who read this who may not appreciate this viewpoint, especially after yesterday's layoffs.

Very true and you are right, certainly was not my intent and ill refrain in the future! Im sorry if Ive offended anybody. Thinking of everyone down there in Orlando and throughout Florida right now.

 

[Scott W.]

This is going to impact people way worse than 9/11 did economically. There is no immediate bounce back, even once there's a vaccine. With 9/11, it mostly just scared people off for a bit, but there wasn't a long-term economic impact for the most part. We bounced back relatively quick because people got over it. This is so much different because it's actually hitting the people HARD.

Also, I don't expect a vaccine to be widely available for quite some time, even once it's ready and working.

Everybody's perception of this is going to be different. Orlando is going to be harder hit than most places. The US is probably being hit harder than other parts of the world.

I'm no doubt being ignorant here and this isn't a humble brag but between me, my family and friends, none of us have really been hit hard financially by any of this and in some cases, some of my friends have been better off by not having to commute into work nor paying for child care and with nothing really to do, money has been saved.

A few people I know who were booked to go to Orlando this year, are ready to go next year. The only reason I'm holding off rebooking is because I want to see things returning to 'normal' and I want to get an idea of crowds and prices.

 

[Nick]

Everybody's perception of this is going to be different. Orlando is going to be harder hit than most places. The US is probably being hit harder than other parts of the world.

I'm no doubt being ignorant here and this isn't a humble brag but between me, my family and friends, none of us have really been hit hard financially by any of this and in some cases, some of my friends have been better off by not having to commute into work nor paying for child care and with nothing really to do, money has been saved.

A few people I know who were booked to go to Orlando this year, are ready to go next year. The only reason I'm holding off rebooking is because I want to see things returning to 'normal' and I want to get an idea of crowds and prices.

I think a lot of what we're seeing may never go away. Remember, the most of the post-9/11 procedures are still with us. Of course the masks and distancing will over time, but I think there's some things that may stay.

 

[jtsalien]

Write your representatives, U.S. people. This does not need to be as bad as the government is making it. Flat out. This is a conscious choice to put large corporations over the well-being of the population.

And believe it not, Comcast/Universal does view its Team Members as people. With lives to maintain, mortgages to pay, kids to take care of, etc. And they try and avoid situations like yesterday as much a possible.

The reality is without the parks attempting openings , tens of thousands of people would be left without a livable income for the forseebale future. Did Universal open to turn a profit? Absolutely. But opening also allows them to pay and sustain as many Team Members for as long as possible.

 

[Scott W.]

I think a lot of what we're seeing may never go away. Remember, the most of the post-9/11 procedures are still with us. Of course the masks and distancing will over time, but I think there's some things that may stay.

I think a lot of the procedures that came about after 9/11 would have been implemented at some stage when it comes to the parks. I don't really mind the security checks as useless as they appear to be, the way I see it is that I'm going to be queuing regardless, it doesn't matter if it's a 10min wait at security and then a 10min wait at the gate or 20mins in total. The room security checks were implemented way after 9/11 as well.

I don't mind the temperature checks or the social distancing. At times, you do feel like cattle in the parks and getting a little breathing space is nice. The only thing I hope is removed is mandatory mask wearing.

The second human trials for a vaccine have started in the UK with promise to be delivered at the end of the year.

Coronavirus: Human trial of new vaccine begins in UK

Over the coming weeks, 300 healthy people will each be given two doses of the jab.

www.bbc.co.uk

I see this as promising:
There are more than 120 coronavirus vaccines in early development across the world. Most of these will never get beyond the laboratory. A further 13 are now in clinical trials: five in China, three in the United States, two in the UK, one in Australia, Germany and Russia.

 

[Mad Dog]

Population size + better testing...

Lot of epidemiologists in my feed begging the media to stop focusing on case counts... headlines like this disincentivize politicians from increasing testing capacity, when the truly important data points (percentage positive cases, hospitalizations) go buried...

YES. The media (both main stream & social) has become like a pack of rabid hounds, not only on this but other matters. They don't even bother fact checking most of the time, just throw out click bait headlines, that may be only slightly accurate, and often don't reflect the facts in the actual story. I used to really support the media when some were calling them fake/false news. But I've changed my stance. They're at the point that they are so often irresponsible, rarely evenhanded, and cause more harm than good. As I've said before, the media is assuming a lot of the traits of the 'yellow journalism' that was prevalent at the beginning of the 1900's. And that's not good....On covid, they need to be more balanced, and cease over emphasizing numbers that aren't necessarily reflective of what they're alluding to, and without explaining what those numbers really comprise. Just for an example, they'll report the number of available intensive care beds in an area for a headline covid story, and leave the casual reader/listener thinking all of those beds are filled with covid patients, when in reality most of the beds are filled with patients for non covid surgeries that are backed up from the lock downs. If the media was more honest and fair in their reporting, more people would probably take safety precautions. With all of the media hysteria, many don't believe them anymore. They cry wolf a little too loudly and too often.

 

[Nick]

I think a lot of the procedures that came about after 9/11 would have been implemented at some stage when it comes to the parks. I don't really mind the security checks as useless as they appear to be, the way I see it is that I'm going to be queuing regardless, it doesn't matter if it's a 10 min wait at security and then a 10 min wait at the gate or 20 min in total. The room security checks were implemented way after 9/11 as well.

I don't mind the temperature checks or the social distancing. At times, you do feel like cattle in the parks and getting a little breathing space is nice. The only thing I hope is removed is mandatory mask wearing.

The second human trials for a vaccine have started in the UK with promise to be delivered at the end of the year.

Coronavirus: Human trial of new vaccine begins in UK

Over the coming weeks, 300 healthy people will each be given two doses of the jab.

www.bbc.co.uk

I see this as promising:
There are more than 120 coronavirus vaccines in early development across the world. Most of these will never get beyond the laboratory. A further 13 are now in clinical trials: five in China, three in the United States, two in the UK, one in Australia, Germany and Russia.

But also, think about what Disney is doing. They aren't allowing park hopping and there's no FP once parks open. I'm not saying that those won't go away, but will FP ever be free again? idk. Park hopping may also become more limited in the future in order to try and make people take longer vacation stays.

These type of things are the type that while necessary now, we'll become accustomed to them and some may just never go away.

 

[Grabnar]

I don't mind the temperature checks or the social distancing. At times, you do feel like cattle in the parks and getting a little breathing space is nice. The only thing I hope is removed is mandatory mask wearing.

I don't know, I'd sort of appreciate it if it was enforced over normal, non-covid cold/flu season. I know SO many people who go to the parks sick...

The second human trials for a vaccine have started in the UK with promise to be delivered at the end of the year.

Coronavirus: Human trial of new vaccine begins in UK

Over the coming weeks, 300 healthy people will each be given two doses of the jab.

www.bbc.co.uk

I see this as promising:
There are more than 120 coronavirus vaccines in early development across the world. Most of these will never get beyond the laboratory. A further 13 are now in clinical trials: five in China, three in the United States, two in the UK, one in Australia, Germany and Russia.

Definitely promising. I've seen estimates that about 40% of vaccines that make it through Phase 1 are found to work. Just napkin math, but that would be 5 that are currently in clinical trials (Moderna, Oxford, and SinoVac the foremost amongst these at the moment). Per some industry friends that I've heard from the Moderna vaccine seems to be promising, I haven't heard about any of the others.

A lot of these are getting scaled up at risk right now. The N-hundred million doses by early 2021 are being manufactured in bulk right now just on the hope that the Phase 2/3 trials show success.

 

[Cup_Of_Coffee]

Crowd controlling, in all aspects of entertainment, whether it be theme parks, movies, theaters, concerts, comedy clubs, sporting events, are all likely going to look different for the next few years and be a prominent focus in the industries one way or another.

 

[Mad Dog]

But also, think about what Disney is doing. They aren't allowing park hopping and there's no FP once parks open. I'm not saying that those won't go away, but will FP ever be free again? idk. Park hopping may also become more limited in the future in order to try and make people take longer vacation stays.

These type of things are the type that while necessary now, we'll become accustomed to them and some may just never go away.

I agree with you on Disney. I can see a good number of their changes become permanent. It seems they were getting uncomfortable with some aspects of their business model (ie. fastpasses, park hopping, long length dinner reservations etc.) even before covid..And this will give them a breather and ultimately reason to make changes. ..On Universal, I don't see many park operation changes, but I think the hotels may end up keeping some of the room cleaning changes as a cost effective/savings reason.

 

[HandsomePete]

This is going to impact people way worse than 9/11 did economically. There is no immediate bounce back, even once there's a vaccine. With 9/11, it mostly just scared people off for a bit, but there wasn't a long-term economic impact for the most part. We bounced back relatively quick because people got over it. This is so much different because it's actually hitting the people HARD.

9/11 is what people remember, but the actual economic problem was the dot-com bubble burst. The bottom of the market didn't come until late 2002/early 2003.

Nasdaq lost about 65% of its value from March 2000-March 2001.

That makes me somewhat hopeful for next year/post-vaccine/etc. ... if people reduce spending in the short term and WEAR A DAMN MASK we can get through this with as little damage to market fundamentals as possible. Dragging the timeframe longer because people don't WEAR THEIR DAMN MASK pushes us closer to worse fundamental damage.

 

[Mad Dog]

NY, NJ, & Conn. governors jointly announced a travel advisory, which requires a 14 day quarantine for visitors from Alabama, Arkansas, Arizona, Florida, NC, Sc, Washington and Texas.......Kind of like Dueling Banjos. Seems just like yesterday many of those same states had restrictions on visitors from NY, NJ & Conn.....that said, it'll probably get enforced as much as the former other direction one, namely rarely....In other news....the French are being resistant to the 'tracing app' with many cancelling it. In 3 weeks since it's launch, the contact tracing phone app platform just alerted 14 people that they came in close contact with another user that was covid confirmed. 460, 000 people 'uninstalled' the app which is now down to 1.5 million users out of a population of 67 million....I doubt that type of app would fly in the US either.

 

[Scott W.]

But also, think about what Disney is doing. They aren't allowing park hopping and there's no FP once parks open. I'm not saying that those won't go away, but will FP ever be free again? idk. Park hopping may also become more limited in the future in order to try and make people take longer vacation stays.

These type of things are the type that while necessary now, we'll become accustomed to them and some may just never go away.

Disney's value has been dropping for years and I was ready to pack in visiting Disney World after my last trip as I didn't think I could justify the cost any more. If FP goes, I no longer see the point of staying on site to get early access to it. I like the option of park hoping but I don't think I'd really miss it as I always plan a day for each park anyway.

I think that Disney want to return to normal as quickly as possible.

I don't know, I'd sort of appreciate it if it was enforced over normal, non-covid cold/flu season. I know SO many people who go to the parks sick...



Definitely promising. I've seen estimates that about 40% of vaccines that make it through Phase 1 are found to work. Just napkin math, but that would be 5 that are currently in clinical trials (Moderna, Oxford, and SinoVac the foremost amongst these at the moment). Per some industry friends that I've heard from the Moderna vaccine seems to be promising, I haven't heard about any of the others.

A lot of these are getting scaled up at risk right now. The N-hundred million doses by early 2021 are being manufactured in bulk right now just on the hope that the Phase 2/3 trials show success.

It's crazy to think how many vaccines are in development. Obviously the winner is going to make a fortune but for that many to even try, you have to think a vaccine is viable. COVID's greatest strength is it's weakness.

 

[Nick]

Disney's value has been dropping for years and I was ready to pack in visiting Disney World after my last trip as I didn't think I could justify the cost any more. If FP goes, I no longer see the point of staying on site to get early access to it. I like the option of park hoping but I don't think I'd really miss it as I always plan a day for each park anyway.

I think that Disney want to return to normal as quickly as possible.

I think Disney could turn to a MaxPass system potentially. It could be included with hotel stays at all Deluxe resorts, as a ticket add-on and certain high-level APs.

 

[Mad Dog]

I think Disney could turn to a MaxPass system potentially. It could be included with hotel stays at all Deluxe resorts, as a ticket add-on and certain high-level APs.

and...seems like people at Disneyland that used it liked it a lot. Big plus. ...Myself, I'd prefer Max Pass pay over Fastpass Free. Too tough, and too much trouble, to get the good stuff with FP, even when you stay on site.

 

[Nick]

and...seems like people at Disneyland that used it liked it a lot. Big plus. ...Myself, I'd prefer Max Pass pay over Fastpass Free. Too tough, and too much trouble, to get the good stuff with FP, even when you stay on site.

The problem with Maxpass is I think it only works with a smaller amount using it the service, so that's why I think it would have to be limited to Deluxe Resorts if it was still a perk for them. Giving it to all hotel guests would flood the system, as is evident now with FP+.

 

[Cup_Of_Coffee]

I think Disney could turn to a MaxPass system potentially. It could be included with hotel stays at all Deluxe resorts, as a ticket add-on and certain high-level APs.

So, essentially Universal's model but slightly expanded? Or just at a cost?

 

[Scott W.]

I think Disney could turn to a MaxPass system potentially. It could be included with hotel stays at all Deluxe resorts, as a ticket add-on and certain high-level APs.

I think MaxPass is a much better system but like you said above, I don't know if it would work at WDW.

I wonder how many FP+ are booked in advance and never used though.

 

[Cup_Of_Coffee]

Big Brother US cast is rumored to be "quarantining" today. Idk how this happens as LA county has a major spike, but we shall see. Would still be one of the first shows in production again.

Doesn't help that 2 of the heavily rumored cast members (Josh *not surprising* and Kaycee) were out partying in Miami in clubs just this past week. So I frankly have lowered my expectations to it not happening.

Also, Survivor is currently working with the Fijian government to get filming back there asap, possibly by the end of next month/early August as they were supposed to film last March, and it seems to be progressing. Lots of staff stays home or is working remotely on site. Players tested and quarantined. Chartered flights to Fiji have been happening, and I believe a few other CBS shows, reality and scripted, film in Fiji. Fiji also has like zero new cases. Should be interesting how this all plays out.