TEA Report Released

[UniversalCityFL]

Attendance numbers are just one of many different lenses one can view the success of a theme park through. There are a bunch of other metrics (e.g. guest sentiment, per cap spending, market share, net revenue, etc.) that one can also use. None of them are the end-all, be-all measure.

The TEA numbers are just estimates, and are an opportunity for an otherwise unknown organization to get their name out in the news once a year. That’s it.

All industries use estimates. TV uses the Neilsen system, radio uses surveys. None of them are accurate. The truth is that nobody really knows exactly how many people are doing anything.

There are so many variables, it’s nearly impossible to take the numbers seriously. Are they counting complimentary admissions in the numbers? (Universal doesn’t.) Did the guest stay in the park all day or for an hour? How much did they spend? Do they intend to return? Does the number include annual passholders who pay once and come 30 times? Why does TEA measure the calendar year when the actual parks go by fiscal year? If you got my money last year from my two-day ticket purchase BUT I used the ticket today, what does my click even matter?

While I’m not doubting anyone on this board, I will tell you that, while projected guest attendance numbers are widely shared within the supervisory levels of the parks in order to properly staff, each day’s attendance numbers are shared to only a handful of people. And the YEARLY report is seen by an even smaller handful. So arguing over the inaccuracy of the TEA numbers is futile unless we are all staring at the Gateway Ticketing printouts, which isn’t going to happen.

 

[sjago13]

I'm assuming disney counts guests that come just for star wars weekend correct because that is daytime but does stuff like mickey not so scary ot him count in at all? I would love to see attendance numbers for various upcharge events.

 

[maxairmike]

I don't know what you do, but there's a very slim percentage of the population who have access to every theme park in the world's actual attendance figures. If you work for the company, I can see you having data to one, but then how do you go about figuring out the rest of them? Unless employees are risking their jobs and non-disclosures to bring people on a website information…which seems unlikely at best...

Daily park projections are pretty much an open secret for the employees at both resorts (it's how I decided if I wanted to venture to Universal or stick to a Disney park in 2010, I asked a friend at Universal/Disney on days I went to a park), and it is pretty simple to get a pretty darn good estimate if you know enough of those over a year for any given park. Nearly every manager in an operations line of business (food/merch/attractions) at both resorts gets the daily projection, usually passed on to the location team to give them an idea of the crowds they'll be dealing with that day. If you know someone that's on a closing shift, you may even be able to find out the revised projection/how far above or below they ended up. Basically the worst kept secret in the industry with just a few entry level friends.

With that said, IOA at 0% growth - not a single person more passing through the gates than last year - is laughable.

 

[Donald Razorduck]

http://www.teaconnect.org/images/files/TEA_103_49736_150603.pdf

The attendance numbers for last year were released today by TEA/AECOM. According to the new numbers, Uni/Disney parks take up the top 12 spots with three big gains coming from Uni parks (17% USF, 16.8% USJ, 11% USH) as well. Disney's parks all had fairly average years, with the exception of the Paris parks, which both dropped 4.7%.

Quick side note, SeaWorld dropped another 8% and has nothing this year before Mako, so looking forward, they may not even be in the top 25 as next year's numbers are released. If you dig deaper into the numbers though, you'll see that Busch Gardens Tampa actually gained 1%, while SeaWorld San Diego dropped a jarring 12%!

Top 25 Theme Parks:

Top 20 Water Parks:

Last year was the bottom for SEAS. They are already up in the first quater this year. Notice that Aquatica went up last year as well and it's the sixth in the world. After the Uni and Disney parks they still have 4 of the top 20 US parks attended.

I have theory that the real results of what Uni is doing now will be more evident 5 years from now. They are really starting to segment trips to Disney as their resort grows I to something more than a day away from stop into something that commands it's own targeted visit. I clearly think Uni is hurting Seaworld the most but eventually it'll help Seaworld. When families start doing Disney only trips followed by a Universal and the rest of Orlando instead of Disney and a day or two of other stuff visits as things away from Disney becomes so compelling not to ignore, SeaWorld will fill up the back end of the Universal specific visits. I really think you'll start seeing this played out as Universal expands.

I see Disney losing families with preteens and teens in the future as the pipeline is bare with only one thing that may appeal to them in Avatar at AK. It's like everything is targeted to families with kids under 10 and that is going to catch up with them. That is what Uni is really targeting as SeaWorld and Busch fills their coaster needs.

 

[JungleSkip]

Does anyone know what MK's park capacity is vs. TDL's capacity? Everyone always bring it up that TDL is always packed, but i'd be interested in knowing what the capacities are. I'm sure MK is less as they've closed a lot (and are just starting to gain it back) and haven't used any actual expansion pads, but would be interested in knowing.

Just from being there, TDL's capacity is MUCH bigger than MK's. Bigger streets, more attractions, bigger queues, etc

 

[Nick]

Just from being there, TDL's capacity is MUCH bigger than MK's. Bigger streets, more attractions, bigger queues, etc

Not surprising, thanks. So if all of this talk that "TDL is always packed" is true, than it should definitely be above MK (it rarely reaches capacity). The park get's incredibly crowded at night, but I have to wonder how many of those are people who've park hopped over.

 

[Teebin]

My goodness, I am really surprised how seriously some of you take this issue and the TEA. I feel comfortable with shareholder reports.

 

[rhino4evr]

I think Disney will always have that foreign audience. You know, the type that stay for a week and don't really want to go anywhere but Disney. To them, there is no universal. In fact, I'm sure there are plenty of Americans that still have no idea universal Orlando even exists.

I also think that universal continues to have the young family demographic pass there parks by. I feel there are more overall young family theme park visitors the teen/mid 20s visitors. Which is why the magic kingdom continues to see record attendance.

 

[OrlandoGuy]

:tongue:

Daily park projections are pretty much an open secret for the employees at both resorts (it's how I decided if I wanted to venture to Universal or stick to a Disney park in 2010, I asked a friend at Universal/Disney on days I went to a park), and it is pretty simple to get a pretty darn good estimate if you know enough of those over a year for any given park. Nearly every manager in an operations line of business (food/merch/attractions) at both resorts gets the daily projection, usually passed on to the location team to give them an idea of the crowds they'll be dealing with that day. If you know someone that's on a closing shift, you may even be able to find out the revised projection/how far above or below they ended up. Basically the worst kept secret in the industry with just a few entry level friends.

With that said, IOA at 0% growth - not a single person more passing through the gates than last year - is laughable.

Ok man...if you talked to an employee from every park who not only knew the projections but the actual figures for every day for the last two years then we'll talk :tongue:

I mean, seriously guys, you cannot possibly know every number of every park. There's no way. Kuribo made some excellent points...everything (what you heard, I heard, TEA heard, etc) is a mere estimate. There's no 100% correct figure, so calling one out on being wrong is, like I said, basically pointless. And that should be all the more reason to just chill the heck out over the whole thing. I mean my God, a report said that a park didn't grow in attendance. So freakin what? It's great to discuss it but there's no need to get all hysterical. I mean, apparently there are Disney fans "celebrating" on Twitter or something? That's sad, really, but when you make a point to bash them and get all defensive because you think "your park" got the shaft, you're just coming down to their level lol.

 

[hopemax]

With that said, IOA at 0% growth - not a single person more passing through the gates than last year - is laughable.

That's not what the TEA report implies though. The belief is that those attendance numbers are "first clicks." Being flat doesn't mean that "no more people visited," it means "no more went there first." Which makes sense, given that HP fans would likely want to visit the new stuff, and "visit the way Harry did," meaning go to DA, get on the train to Hogsmeade. We know the train was highly visited, and we know from the Earnings reports that sales of park to park tickets were strong, so people did go to IOA, just not before they went to the Studios. I'd guess in the first half the year, things were more even and IOA had modest growth, then in the 2nd half, the deck was stacked for the Studios, in terms of how TEA gets its numbers.

The numbers that Universal sees, which would include park hopping, and how long people stayed in the first park...I'm sure those are very strong for both parks. We just don't get to see them, and TEA doesn't report them.

- first post here, but been around the various theme park boards for years

 

[Nick]

I mean, apparently there are Disney fans "celebrating" on Twitter or something? That's sad, really, but when you make a point to bash them and get all defensive because you think "your park" got the shaft, you're just coming down to their level lol.

Especially since Universal came out with double digit increases at three of their parks (and USJ cracked the top 5 in the TEA list).

 

[maxairmike]

:tongue:

Ok man...if you talked to an employee from every park who not only knew the projections but the actual figures for every day for the last two years then we'll talk :tongue:

I mean, seriously guys, you cannot possibly know every number of every park. There's no way. Kuribo made some excellent points...everything (what you heard, I heard, TEA heard, etc) is a mere estimate. There's no 100% correct figure, so calling one out on being wrong is, like I said, basically pointless. And that should be all the more reason to just chill the heck out over the whole thing. I mean my God, a report said that a park didn't grow in attendance. So freakin what? It's great to discuss it but there's no need to get all hysterical. I mean, apparently there are Disney fans "celebrating" on Twitter or something? That's sad, really, but when you make a point to bash them and get all defensive because you think "your park" got the shaft, you're just coming down to their level lol.

And there's no way anyone could know what attractions are coming in the future...oh wait, we do. Maybe someone doesn't have the full year-end figures for every park, but the only one I think people care about is that absolutely ridiculous IOA number this year. More people end up hearing final numbers for a day/week/month/year than you'd expect. I've personally heard the day end number (final, down to the ones) for a few parks a few times, revised projections/variation from initial more times than I can count, and that's with no one close to the level others on here know people at. It doesn't take too much to arrive at a pretty well educated conclusion about these things if you have the right data points.

Also, I'm hardly freaking out, just pointing out that knowing final numbers, or being able to make enough of a well-informed guess of them to the point of legitimately questioning the TEA numbers is hardly the feat you're making it out to be. I could care less what the TEA numbers say, because they mean about as much in the real world as Amusement Today's Golden Tickets, just pointing out the one number this year that is laughable.

 

[Hockeyman55]

I mean, seriously guys, you cannot possibly know every number of every park. There's no way. Kuribo made some excellent points...everything (what you heard, I heard, TEA heard, etc) is a mere estimate. There's no 100% correct figure, so calling one out on being wrong is, like I said, basically pointless. And that should be all the more reason to just chill the heck out over the whole thing. I mean my God, a report said that a park didn't grow in attendance. So freakin what? It's great to discuss it but there's no need to get all hysterical. I mean, apparently there are Disney fans "celebrating" on Twitter or something? That's sad, really, but when you make a point to bash them and get all defensive because you think "your park" got the shaft, you're just coming down to their level lol.

I think you are severely underestimating the knowledge/connections/place of employment of the people posting on this thread and the info they are providing.

 

[ReelJustice]

Not surprising, thanks. So if all of this talk that "TDL is always packed" is true, than it should definitely be above MK (it rarely reaches capacity). The park get's incredibly crowded at night, but I have to wonder how many of those are people who've park hopped over.

Also, as I understand it, TDR actually releases the yearly attendance.

 

[Nick]

Also, as I understand it, TDR actually releases the yearly attendance.

Yes, OLC releases it's numbers for both parks from what I remember. They're a very open company it seems.

 

[maxairmike]

According to their website, 2014 attendance was 31,377,000 combined (I believe it's fiscal year, not calendar). That (thankfully) lines up with the TEA numbers of 31.4 million combined.

 

[Donald Razorduck]

I think Disney will always have that foreign audience. You know, the type that stay for a week and don't really want to go anywhere but Disney. To them, there is no universal. In fact, I'm sure there are plenty of Americans that still have no idea universal Orlando even exists.

I also think that universal continues to have the young family demographic pass there parks by. I feel there are more overall young family theme park visitors the teen/mid 20s visitors. Which is why the magic kingdom continues to see record attendance.

This is where Comcast's ownership of media will come in, I mean I grew up watch ABC on Sats watch the Globetrotters visit DisneyWorld during their yearly broadcast. Disney was all over tv even before ABV was theirs. I see Uni promos on Fallon often. My kids would love to hit a studio taping of the Family Feud.

 

[wizwit]

On their website, TEA gives a vague explanation of what data they use to compile their rankings:

TEA

Inclusion in the annual Theme Index is a benchmark of success among operators. AECOM obtains the figures used to create the TEA/AECOM Theme Index through a variety of sources, including statistics furnished directly by the operators, historical numbers, financial reports, the investment banking community and local tourism organizations, among others.

 

[Brian G.]

First off, attendance numbers shouldn't be used to champion either side of the fandom being "better".

Also - I have no dog in this fight. Just wanted to provoke the mind with some tidbits and speculation to what I was told.

Based on several undisclosed sources ([HASHTAG]#secretz[/HASHTAG]) - the numbers are off. I was told to not go into specifics so that is why I must present the data as general as possible.

The discrepancy isn't so much about Magic Kingdom or Epcot. MK is nigh untouchable, for obvious reasons. Epcot, for all its issues, benefits from Food & Wine and having a plethora of dining options. Local deciding to have dinner at Le Cellier last minute? *Turnstile click*

The issue is the bottom 2 of Disney. Keep in mind, TEA's numbers are "estimates". Even if contradictory info is released, there is always "Hey, we were just estimating".

Best analogy I can think of - Imagine a 3-sided scale of Orlando. It's supposed to total 74 million and does. But what if some gets sprinkled onto another plate? Same total, but different allotment.

What would be the purpose of this?

Obviously there is no argument that Universal is under a non-stop, BUILD EVERYTHING approach while Disney, for the most part, are taking a laid-back approach. If attendance did drop, for any of the Disney parks, what would that show?

 

[UK-Trigg]

On their website, TEA gives a vague explanation of what data they use to compile their rankings:

TEA

Inclusion in the annual Theme Index is a benchmark of success among operators. AECOM obtains the figures used to create the TEA/AECOM Theme Index through a variety of sources, including statistics furnished directly by the operators, historical numbers, financial reports, the investment banking community and local tourism organizations, among others.

In other words, they guess