The Wizarding World of Harry Potter - Hollywood

[Jon Fu]

Universal is not meeting their weekend projections, but weekday projections have been either met or exceeded. Pass attendance is significantly down, so the question is whether or not they're happy with higher-guest spending at the expense of sheer attendance numbers.


The land is definitely not a flop, but their original expectations might have been too much of an overreach. Regardless, they seem to be happy with guest spending so far so and that's always a large plus.

 

[Armadillo4]

Universal is not meeting their weekend projections, but weekday projections have been either met or exceeded. Pass attendance is significantly down, so the question is whether or not they're happy with higher-guest spending at the expense of sheer attendance numbers.


The land is definitely not a flop, but their original expectations might have been too much of an overreach. Regardless, they seem to be happy with guest spending so far so and that's always a large plus.

After the moderate crowds this past weekend, I have to re-think my own expectations. Clearly, Universal's original expectations were an overreach--and not just "might have been." I personally thought that poor weather played a factor with the opening week crowds and that with beautiful weather this past weekend, that things would be much different. I even speculated (several posts back) that the return-time entry tickets would have to be used this past weekend. Nope. I was very wrong there too.


Yes, higher guest spending is a plus. But think how much MORE merchandise and food/drink would be selling if attendance was higher. I can't think that many theme park executives would ever say: "we have low crowds today...high five!"


Everyone is definitely correct in stating that AP blockout dates are a big factor in attendance so far. But has anyone asked: why did Universal implement so many blockout dates in the first place? Because they clearly thought they would sell a lot more 1-day tickets during these first two weeks. Jon posted above that 1-day ticket sales have increased, and I'm sure his sources are better than my speculation. But they clearly haven't sold as many as they were expecting when they set those blockout dates for all of their passes.


I'm not saying the land is a flop either. When all is said and done, I'm sure USH will see a significant attendance increase in 2016 vs. 2015. It just might not be as high an attendance increase as park executives (and myself) were expecting when they planned bringing Wizarding World to USH.

 

[Jon Fu]

But has anyone asked: why did Universal implement so many blockout dates in the first place? Because they clearly thought they would sell a lot more 1-day tickets during these first two weeks.

That's a good question. Let me try to answer that in a few hours.

 

[Jon Fu]

Edit: Here's some insight that will hopefully clarify Potter's recent performance: http://insideuniversal.net/2016/04/is-the-wizarding-world-of-harry-potter-a-success-its-complicated-and-heres-why/

 

[Park Man]

I think Universal has played their cards well. I was up there on Saturday and then again on Monday. Saturday was crowded, but not unreasonably. And Monday was a lot busier than I expected, but again, not too bad. I think this is working out well for Universal. I think ridiculous crowds would have hurt the overall experience and not been good for the park. Manageable crowds and increased per capita spending is probably the best case scenario.


Fun Fact: I bought a Butterbeer from the cart up by Hogwarts. On the receipt the cart was called "The Snowman Cart." This is interesting because near that spot in Florida, there is a Harry Potter snowman, but not so here in Hollywood. I guess the cart name made the trip out west even if the actual snowman didn't.

 

[JaySalahi]

I'll just say this, I went Monday, and while not packed the park was healthy. Full but not crowded and it seemed busier than any random weekday last year I thought. Spending is also up, you can tell just walking around. 


Also I rode FJ without the goggles this time for the non dome scenes, wow, I wish we got a darker 2D version. The real sets just aren't half as impressive with goggles over your eyes.  

 

[Armadillo4]

Jon, thanks for the well-thought out article! I definitely agree with most of what you wrote. However, I think there's still one point that's been overlooked. Although sales of one-day tickets have increased significantly, I think they haven't met expectations. Why do I say this? Precisely because of the aggressive strategy of AP blockout dates.


The fact that AP attendance is much lower than in past years should not be a surprise to any Universal park executive, because they planned it that way. Your detailed article spelled this out very clearly.


Universal executives knew that APs would be blocked out during the first couple of weeks after Grand Opening. So they must have been expecting to make up for the loss of AP attendance with one-day ticket sales. And while those sales have been healthy, they haven't fully offset the loss of AP visits. The one-day ticket sales have not reached the stratospheric levels that we all expected they would see. And if we were expecting to see the land packed with guests, you can bet that park executives were expecting that too.


As guests, the relatively soft attendance is a boon for those of us who can visit the park and enjoy a brand new land without mind-numbing wait times or shoulder-to-shoulder crowds. So I'm not complaining! I'm just surprised that the large crowds haven't materialized. I'm definitely interested to see if any changes to the AP program come about later in the year, as your article also speculated, e.g. lifting of blockout dates. Personally, I'm hoping for some added benefits to the Platinum Pass (*cough* Front of Line privileges *cough*) to make that pass more appealing.

 

[Jon Fu]

Jon, thanks for the well-thought out article! I definitely agree with most of what you wrote. However, I think there's still one point that's been overlooked. Although sales of one-day tickets have increased significantly, I think they haven't met expectations. Why do I say this? Precisely because of the aggressive strategy of AP blockout dates.


The fact that AP attendance is much lower than in past years should not be a surprise to any Universal park executive, because they planned it that way. Your detailed article spelled this out very clearly.

Appreciate the well thought out counterpart!


I'll have to ask: what is your definition of stratospheric one-day ticket sales? From what I understand, they've increased ticket sales 30% year-over-year for April. That may not be spectacular, but I definitely see that as a sizable increase that shouldn't be overlooked.


I guess another question would be: did they expect more local residents to purchase the Platinum and Gold pass? I want to assume that Californians prefer annual passes to one-day tickets precisely so they can visit the park multiple times per year, but I don't have the data to back that up. It's widely said that California is a locals market, so I'd be interested in knowing who owns what. They've definitely missed some projections and they've scaled back weekend hours as a result - that's a fact. We'll just have to parse out what exactly they were expecting, and whether or not the current results fall within that level of expectation.

 

[Ryan]

To risk sounding like a broken record: we are still in what was previously an extremely slow time for USH. Memorial Day Weekend is when things start heating up.

 

[Armadillo4]

Appreciate the well thought out counterpart!


I'll have to ask: what is your definition of stratospheric one-day ticket sales? From what I understand, they've increased ticket sales 30% year-over-year for April. That may not be spectacular, but I definitely see that as a sizable increase that shouldn't be overlooked.

As a Universal theme park fan, I'm enjoying this discussion! And I totally agree: a 30% year-over-year increase in one-day ticket sales is HUGE by any definition. So let me try to answer your question with a hypothetical exercise in attendance analysis. And I'll start off with a caveat that all of these numbers are arbitrary for the sake of discussion. Believe me, I have no access to any actual park attendance data. 


Let's examine last Saturday. Say that the comparable Saturday in 2015 saw an attendance figure of 20,000 guests. And let's make an assumption that one-day ticket sales comprised 70% of these guests, while Annual Passes made up the other 30%. This is a 70/30 ratio of one-day tickets to APs, but we can look at different ratios as well.

• Total Attendance = 20000
  
  One-day Tickets (70%) = 14000
  
• Annual Passes (30%) = 6000
  

Now, let's flash forward to the same Saturday in 2016. This past Saturday, almost all Annual Passes were blocked out with the exception of the Platinum Pass and anyone carrying over a coveted Premium Star Pass. If our 2015 baseline of one-day ticket sales is 14000, then a 30% increase would give us a total of 18200 one-day tickets. And Universal would need a combined 1800 Platinum and Premium Star Annual Passholders just to equal last year's attendance numbers.

• 2016 One-day Tickets = 18200
  
  Baseline: 2015 One-day Tickets = 14000
  
• 30% increase = 4200
  

[*]Annual Passes = ?


So a 30% increase in one-day tickets is very significant. But in this scenario, it's probably not enough to offset the reduction of AP guests--caused by the aggressive strategy of blockout dates and the price point of the Platinum Pass. It seems unlikely that Universal has sold enough Platinum Passes--since they were made available in mid-March--that 1800 of those new Platinum APs (plus Premium Stars) would show up on the same day.


Since I'm guessing at numbers here, let's figure out a ratio of one-day tickets-to-AP guests, where a 30% increase in one-day ticket sales would increase overall attendance year-over-year. For this next scenario, my assumption is that in 2015, there was an 80/20 ratio of one-day tickets to APs for this particular day.

• Total Attendance = 20000
  
  One-day Tickets (80%) = 16000
  
• Annual Passes (20%) = 4000 
  

In this scenario, we have a theoretical 2016 figure, where a 30% increase in one-day ticket sales would more than offset the planned loss of AP guests. And that any Platinum or Premium Star APs would just be icing on the cake.

• 2016 One-day Tickets = 20800
  
  Baseline: 2015 One-day Tickets = 16000
  
• 30% increase = 4800
  

[*]Annual Passes = ?


I actually think the 70/30 and 80/20 ratios are overly conservative. We know that Universal is primarily a locals market and that the cheap passes of the past several years (including the popular buy-a-day, get-a-year free AP) probably meant that the ratio of day guests to APs was probably closer to 60/40 or 50/50. And if that is the case, then on those days where APs are blocked out, Universal needs that stratospheric increase in one-day ticket sales to counterbalance the loss of APs.


Thoughts? Are my assumptions--particularly the ratio of day guests to APs--realistic enough that this analysis seems plausible? Or does anyone think these numbers are way off base? I won't be offended by critiques. I'm guessing here and this was kind of fun to do.

 

[Lori]

I too hope they give front of the line privileges to Platinum. Also free parking all the time -even after 5pm.

 

[upsidown]

Forbidden Journey is currently listed as "Opening Soon" on the USH wait time website.  Park has been open for 45 minutes now (1 hour 45 if you count early entry).  Does anyone know what is going on?  Is the ride having problems today?

 

[Jon Fu]

Forbidden Journey is currently listed as "Opening Soon" on the USH wait time website.  Park has been open for 45 minutes now (1 hour 45 if you count early entry).  Does anyone know what is going on?  Is the ride having problems today?

Attractions and rides routinely experience delays, or the ride may also have been closed off for a private event. Nothing to worry about.

 

[upsidown]

Thanks Jon.  I am going to USH tomorrow with the gf and was worried when it seemed to be closed for several hours following the opening of the park.  I did see it opened up later and is open this morning, so yay!


On a side note, I bit on an annual pass for the first time in a few years and was wondering, with the restructuring of the front gate area to include security, is there anything different about processing an annual pass?  Is the pass building still down the walkway past Chop House and do I need to go through security first to get to it?

 

[Dylan Beck]

@upsidown Yes, the pass building is still located in it's original building. However, you will have to go through the security check prior to heading into the building.

 

[upsidown]

Thanks, I noticed the print-out I had for my pass said to take the printed ticket directly to the front gate entrance turnstile to get my pass which confused me.  Has anyone done this before?  Is it new for the early entry hour?

 

[Dylan Beck]

@upsidown Yeah, my pass said that as well. When I went to an employee they just redirected me to the pass building.

 

[RyanTTD]

Thanks, I noticed the print-out I had for my pass said to take the printed ticket directly to the front gate entrance turnstile to get my pass which confused me.  Has anyone done this before?  Is it new for the early entry hour?

When your printed ticket is scanned at the front gate, the turnstile will print your Annual Pass.  This process has been in place for a few years now.

 

[upsidown]

@Ryan120420 Thanks, it has been more than a few years since I last had an annual pass, so it sounds like things have changed.  Thanks again for the help.  I am looking forward to my 2nd trip, and my girlfriend's 1st, to see WWOHP.

 

[Wesker69]

So I finally got around to trying "regular" Butterbeer at the park... it was terrible compared to Orlando. Its definitely watered down & less flavorful. It just didn't taste right to me. I was disappointed. Will be giving the "frozen" Butterbeer a try next time I get over to the park. Hopefully its better.

I had friends from Orlando in town this week who work at Universal Orlando, even they said it tasted "off". :unsure: