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Universal Orlando Resort Expansion (Part 1)

  • Thread starter Thread starter ReelJustice
  • Start date Start date Jul 10, 2012
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zg44

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JoeCamel said:
Please bear with me so I can understand. Stan Thomas is not a good poker player but knows when he is not holding a winning hand and the bluff he was running with the "No Theme Park" suit was called and maybe that means the east land (green/yellow depending on your eyes) that was only valuable to Universal may be part of the settlement (for a bundle of cash) to drop the suit, allow a park to be built and sell the land to Universal? Is that right?
Now the bankruptcy suit proceeds on the red property and maybe in May Stan shows up with a note to pay off the creditors and the way he got the note is Uni backed it OR it goes to the creditors, Stan does not fight it and the creditors sell it to Universal?
In the end Universal ends up with all the marbles (1450 acres MoL) and is now surrounding Lockheed Martin on three sides. LM may have plans to move their very expensive plant in the future leaving a cleanup and new land to be done by Universal?
I know that last part is speculation but do I have the rest semi correct?
Click to expand...
The problem is we don't know yet what was a part of the settlement. Did it just deal with the theme park building question? Did it deal with land transfer? The master declarant rights?

Those are the 3 issues between Stan Thomas and Universal that needed resolving, but we don't know what was actually settled.

IF there was a land transfer, then I'd assume Stan Thomas transferred all of his rights to the green and red land. But the red land is currently encumbered with ~$35 million in debt (that liability would now be on Universal to pay off).

The master declarant rights are held by UCPM III. I'd assume that Universal would buy all of UCPM III including the declarant rights if there was a land transfer.
 
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JoeCamel

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zg44 said:
The problem is we don't know yet what was a part of the settlement. Did it just deal with the theme park building question? Did it deal with land transfer? The master declarant rights?

Those are the 3 issues between Stan Thomas and Universal that needed resolving, but we don't know what was actually settled.

IF there was a land transfer, then I'd assume Stan Thomas transferred all of his rights to the green and red land. But the red land is currently encumbered with ~$35 million in debt (that liability would now be on Universal to pay off).
Click to expand...
Thanks, I would think Universal would jump at the prospect of getting the property for $35M if it meant getting all the less desirable property for another chunk of cash.
 
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zg44

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JoeCamel said:
Thanks, I would think Universal would jump at the prospect of getting the property for $35M
Click to expand...
Naw, they'd pay Stan Thomas for UCPM III and then additionally pay the creditors their $35 million. The creditors are the ones getting the debt cleared off the land.

I'd guess that Stan Thomas gets somewhere from $40 million to $80 million, but it's not very clear right now.

Basically, we just have to wait for Comcast's next earnings call.
 
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JoeCamel

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zg44 said:
Naw, they'd pay Stan Thomas for UCPM III and then additionally pay the creditors their $35 million. The creditors are the ones getting the debt cleared off the land.
Click to expand...
I guess I was not clear and that is what I was saying. Thanks, I think I do have a handle on it now. I love the Orlando real estate market, it plays out like a soap opera.
 
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Scott W.

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JoeCamel said:
I guess I was not clear and that is what I was saying. Thanks, I think I do have a handle on it now. I love the Orlando real estate market, it plays out like a soap opera.
Click to expand...

Comcast will announce a 10 part mini series next week.
 
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zg44

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JoeCamel said:
I guess I was not clear and that is what I was saying. Thanks, I think I do have a handle on it now. I love the Orlando real estate market, it plays out like a soap opera.
Click to expand...
Yeah, commercial real estate is a market for sharks. That's why I've stated repeatedly that I think Universal was pushing behind the scenes for the foreclosure to happen on those red properties. You've got land owners and debt owners, and the incentives lead to a lot of behind the scenes power plays.
 
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scott_walker said:
Comcast will announce a 10 part mini series next week.
Click to expand...
I think that idea has merit. They have done the Music industry and several others so Real Estate seems like it may be worth pursuing. Know any screenwriters to work up a treatment?
 
Nico

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Andysol said:
Am I the only one who sees the land around Rosen shingle creek and thinks “timeshares”? That, or they could potentially sell it to a housing developer.
So many possibilities.


Right next to OCCC also. And sell off the land across from OCCC on bottom left.
Click to expand...

Isn’t selling off land they owned how they got into this situation in the first place?
 
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zg44

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Yeah, the OCCC lands are extremely valuable.

I could easily see a 750+ room hotel on each side of the OCCC using those lands. Those could feed directly into both resorts with buses and serve families with a parent attending an OCCC convention. Even single OCCC guests would probably be amenable to staying at Universal affiliated hotels near the OCCC with direct busing to the CityWalks. It's a win-win.

As for that southeast property next to Rosen Shingle Creek, @Disneyhead has mentioned that it could be used for a golf resort that operates with Rosen Shingle Creek; that's a pretty sensible outcome.

This is especially if Universal is in long-term planning for 2 more theme parks.

If Universal is really planning for a long-term future that has 4 theme parks and 2 water parks in Orlando, then you would need 20,000-25,000 hotel rooms to fully service those.

Every acre will be important to providing those hotel rooms in the south resort (even the farther off lands).
 
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Universal 4 Life

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So Comcast is getting most of the 1800 acres Vivendi sold years ago. WOW that's awesome. Is it basically the same land?
 
Nico

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Just to clarify, what is the acreage of the following parks? I tried googling, but they claimed all three were the same size (or off by an acre or two). I was always under the impression that MK was far larger than either Universal property.

1. IOA
2. USO
3. MK
 
JungleSkip

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Surfster said:
Just to clarify, what is the acreage of the following parks? I tried googling, but they claimed all three were the same size (or off by an acre or two). I was always under the impression that MK was far larger than either Universal property.

1. IOA
2. USO
3. MK
Click to expand...
1. 101
2. 107
3. 107
 
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Andysol

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Disneyhead said:
I think people are confusing "stormwater/drainage" with "wetlands".

Stormwater/drainage can be rerouted and developed.

Wetlands are protected. But can be developed if swapped for other wetlands.
Click to expand...

Exactly. And it’s not even that simple, as it needs approval from multiple sources and is rarely a 1:1 swap. It’s doable, but costly as it requires even larger land purchases. But that’s just simple cost/benefit analysis and pull the trigger (or not).

Surfster said:
Isn’t selling off land they owned how they got into this situation in the first place?
Click to expand...

Absolutely. But you never know how something might benefit them. Say, for example- OCCC wanted a giant expansion to try to monopolize the convention market- and that bottom left parcel would be prime for it. That would not only be top $ property, but have synergistic effects as well.

The bottom line is universal finally has options with so much land. It’s a good day if May 10 turns out to be green + red.
 
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fryoj

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Mike S said:
Now we can finally start Nintendo construction.
Click to expand...

After HHN.

JoeCamel said:
In the end Universal ends up with all the marbles (1450 acres MoL) and is now surrounding Lockheed Martin on three sides. LM may have plans to move their very expensive plant in the future leaving a cleanup and new land to be done by Universal?
I know that last part is speculation but do I have the rest semi correct?
Click to expand...

Lockheed is currently adding buildings to their property. They probably wouldn't do that if they had plans to relocate in the foreseeable future.
 
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JoeCamel said:
Please bear with me so I can understand. Stan Thomas is not a good poker player but knows when he is not holding a winning hand so the bluff he was running with the "No Theme Park" suit was called and maybe that means the east land (green/yellow depending on your eyes) that was only valuable to Universal may be part of the settlement (for a bundle of cash) to drop the suit, allow a park to be built and sell the land to Universal? Is that right?
Click to expand...
The purpose of the lawsuits was never to stop a theme park from being built, Stan Thomas had no reason to want that. It was to get paid off for a restriction that was placed on the land. Before the lawsuit was filed, they were negotiating for some time on the remaining land and removing the restrictive covenant in exchange for money, and they just never reached an agreement on that dollar amount. Stan Thomas probably wanted way too much, as he lost the land in a foreclosure and it turned out to be not so good of an investment for him, so he wanted to recover those losses from Universal.

To be honest, this news does not mean we know who "won", did Universal come up in that dollar amount from what they were offering before the suit was filed, and how did it compare to the attorneys' fees, and we likely will never know that part of it, as its all confidential. What we know is early on in the case, Universal was trying to slow things down, cost Stan lots of attorneys fees to push him to settle, but then reversed course and tried to speed things up a ton as they decided they needed it over to get going on the third park, so that could have played to Stan's favor and raised the amount Universal was willing to pay as every day the new park is not operational, its costing them potential profit, and it may have become apparent if they don't settle now, it could delay their new park for another year or so.

Likewise, Stan reversed course as Universal did, when Universal tried to speed it up, and everyone knew they wanted to get the third park done, he tried to slow it down, but some of those tactics did backfire on him with the judge sanctioning him very recently for his delay of case methods, and time was also working against him with the foreclosure suit on the other land. But we don't know if Universal's offer went up significantly from before the suit, if it got more land sold, or any of the other details if it was "worth" the suit for Stan or Universal. We just reached a point where it was crunch time for both. And I do some work in real estate and have followed some similiar suits before, I'm not quite sure Stan would have necessarily lost, restrictive covenants are just that, restrictive covenants, and he was an interested party as a neighbor owning land whose value or intended uses could easily be changed by what Universal does. And if Stan won on the merits of the case, he would have had a much better hand to get much more money out of Universal, they'd be solely at his mercy for building a theme park (or appealing the case, taking waaayyy more time)

Now the bankruptcy suit proceeds on the red property and maybe in May Stan shows up with a note to pay off the creditors and the way he got the note is Uni backed it OR it goes to the creditors, Stan does not fight it and the creditors sell the land to Universal?
Click to expand...
Stan owns lots of other land around the country, and is generally in some financial trouble. We know his plane was recently taken away from him due to lack of payments, and it was mostly paid off, and other land has financial issues. I'm tempted to guess Stan probably has no desire to pay off the note on the remainder of the land unless he has a buyer that is willing to pay more then the note, who is unwilling to wait for it to go through the process (and potentially risk losing it). Universal obviously is that likely buyer, so I'm tempted to believe the land is going to go to Universal so Stan can get some cash to try to stabilize his other properties in other markets.

In the end Universal ends up with all the marbles (1450 acres MoL) and is now surrounding Lockheed Martin on three sides. LM may have plans to move their very expensive plant in the future leaving a cleanup and new land to be done by Universal?
I know that last part is speculation but do I have the rest semi correct?
Click to expand...
There is almost no chance of Universal getting LM any time soon, the biggest problem is SeaWorld (I believe about 350 acres of memory serves me right) gives them another park and the land they'd need, is likely more reusable, and is likely waayy cheaper. There is other options too. Universal could try to buy out the holdings of a company like Unicorp, who owns almost 100 acres right across the street from Universal's new land, along Universal Blvd, and that would have the added advantage of removing some of the competition that Universal doesn't like, such as the Eye and the Starflyer, and they might even want less per acre then Lockheed Martin, as they aren't going to be worried about paying for a relocation on top of profiting. Universal will only be interested in Lockheed Martin if Lockheed decides to close that plant for reasons that have nothing to do with Universal, if their business goes south and they need to downsize. Buying something like Shingle Creek golf course would likely make more sense then Lockheed Martin as well (255 acres)
 
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zg44

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JackHammer said:
So Comcast is getting most of the 1800 acres Vivendi sold years ago. WOW that's awesome. Is it basically the same land?
Click to expand...
Yes, basically in 1998, Universal purchased the 1800 acres from Lockheed Martin along with the master declarant rights over 2200 acres.

UCPM III still controls the master declarant rights over all the properties within the 2200 acres, but a lot of the land became other development like Rosen Shingle Creek, the hotels along Universal Blvd. etc.

This map shows most of the master declarant rights that UCPM III controls (the gray parcels are the 474 acres that Universal acquired from Colony Capital):

8ca1YYG.jpg


So yeah, Universal basically got lucky that the largest bulk of the land is still intact and undeveloped. If Stan Thomas hadn't run into major debt issues in the mid-2000s, then there'd probably be a lot of actual development on the land, and it obviously wouldn't be for sale.

Instead, only around 350 acres or so has been built or sold to other to be built.
 
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Mike S

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fryoj said:
After HHN.
Click to expand...
We’ve been hearing that since twenty-frickin’-fifteen.
 
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happy bunny rabbit

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Mike S said:
We’ve been hearing that since twenty-frickin’-fifteen.
Click to expand...
whoooosh
 
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Mad Dog

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happy bunny rabbit said:
whoooosh
Click to expand...
correction, 2014 :lol:
 
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Brian G.

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Mike S said:
We’ve been hearing that since twenty-frickin’-fifteen.
Click to expand...

They’ve been gunshy :lol:
 
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