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Universal's Crowding

Sep 29, 2014
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Didn't want to derail the Water Park thread anymore but didn't want to pass on what has become a pretty interesting conversation, so I figured I'd start a thread on Universal's Crowding Patterns. Here's what we've gathered, for the most part, so far regarding crowds at Universal the past week or so…

Aaah... while I don't have any understanding of Universal's marketing ideas... I believe a wee bit of national would be good. I have seen both pictures of a packed Uni and an empty Uni these past few weeks. I am not sure what to make of it.

Sorry, I've been too busy writing to spend much time in the parks this month, though I know Thanksgiving was softer than expected. The data I've seen from the first half of this week was weird, mostly in line with peak season predictions but with some weird dips. Keeping my eye on it...

Well, those are from the peak time of day. At the busiest point in the day, the park reached projected capacity levels, but it seems to have a tough time maintaining them. I'd be willing to bet if you checked that app now it would look like it's just a regular night. I'd bet it's been pretty moderate in terms of crowds since the parade, and it'll probably empty out even more considerably after the fireworks. I think that even though they seemed to have bounced back from where they were last weekend, their extensive hours are overkill.

When I checked the morning and early afternoon several times previously today the numbers were very similar to those times, nearly identical. I did a check at 8:05 at the Studios when the parade started and the numbers were apx. 70- 80% of the above times. But I think you're pretty right on at most evenings at the Studios. Generally it seems it drops like a rock. But I was a bit surprised when I was there in September. It seemed like Diagon helped to increase the evening show crowds. There were many more people than I had ever seen in the springs & falls I usually went. But, then again, nothing like the Disney evening crowds. It's my feeling that Universal won't get really good night crowds until they get another couple of hotels built. That'll make it more convenient for people to stay after 6:00PM.

While crowds definitely seemed to pick up since the first couple days of "peak" season (which were remarkably slow for the time), Universal is still struggling to keep huge amounts of visitors in the parks during the holidays. They're open until 11 for the next few days but I think that that's overkill since the place empties out considerably after the holiday parade. What do you guys think?

@Mad Dog, I was actually thinking the opposite to your line of thought. I think hotels are actually a huge reason why the crowds seem to thin so early. They shot themselves in the foot with this free unlimited Express thing. As it stands, from 8 am to 11 pm, it is pretty hard not to experience everything either park has to offer, and with Express it's very possible to do both parks in one day, even on the busiest days. I mean, if you can get on every ride in just a couple of hours, the only reason a hotel guest would stay is to see the parade and then go back to their room and get to bed early so they can wake up for Early Entry the next day.

Now, I realize that Cabana Bay and Sapphire will be the majority of rooms and not offer Express, but they still offer Early Entry which is a huge perk. Not only does this allow you to get the busiest attractions out of the way in a minimal amount of time, it also makes it so you have a considerable head start on the rest of the crowds. Every theme park pro knows that the parks at opening are the key to making the most of your day, so if you're in the park even BEFORE opening, you're able to hit a good amount of rides with next to no waiting. That's another way to speed up a guest's day and give them less reason to stay late in the park.

Furthermore, the whole point of having hotels is to keep people on property longer. So, if a guest has three days to enjoy the parks, there's no need to go commando. If you don't ride everything by the time the nighttime parade rolls around, there's no need to keep going if the guest figures that they have plenty of time to catch up on what they missed the next day. Staying at a hotel just makes for a more relaxed vacation and therefore eliminates the need for guests to be in the park later.

So all that being said, I don't think that more hotel rooms are the key to keeping people in the parks--taking them away from Disney World, sure, but it doesn't help their goal of keeping people in the parks and maximizing potential spending time. Now, I am by no means an expert, insider, or anything like that…I just see patterns in crowding and do a little bit of thinking. I think that at the end of the day, Universal is doing a good job getting people inside the gates, but don't need to go through such extensive measures during peak times such as having the parks open for 15 hours.

That's my rant lol. What do you guys think?
 
I generally agree. I've never had a problem experiencing all of the major attractions at IOA and USF in one day so there's no reason to truly stay too late. Am update/replacement to CineSpec would help along with a show at IOA. CineSpec doesn't keep too many people around as too many leave after the parade anyway and the show itself is just ok, nothing to write home about.

I also agree about the unlimited Express at the three hotels. I think RPR should see it's Unlimited Express taken away once Sapphire is open. It would help reduce Express wait times, potentially keep people in the parks longer, and they could defend the move by saying that RPR guests get the added benefit of using the Sapphire Resort facilities. Sure, it would be spinning it, but sometimes that's what you have to do. By doing that, it would put RPR and Sapphire on the same "Moderate" level.

Obviously Express is only one of the issues, but they need to find ways to keep people in the parks after that parade during this time of the year. Uni seems to have a pretty good hold on most of the year with Mardi Gras Feb-April/May, General summer crowds through August, then HHN Sep/Oct. It's November and December where they still struggle, even with things like Mannheim Steamroller and Macy's.
 
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I definitely agree that the Cinematic show needs an update. I understand that there's a limitation with what they can do with fireworks but I don't see why a show on the level of World of Color over in California would be out of the question. Obviously there are some space limitations but California Adventure drained their whole lagoon to install World of Color, Universal seemed to barely do anything to install their fountains. Maybe if they drained the lagoon and installed an extensive fountain system, the show would be something to write home about.

Also, they need to do something about the Superstar Parade. As of now, it's no reason to stay in the park late. The holiday parade is great but after that, there should be something to incentivize staying later and the Superstar Parade isn't it. The fact that there are only, what, 5 floats, is ridiculous. And the stops (which amounts to performers jumping around and half-heartedly dancing) are awkward and are really of almost no entertainment value. They should throw in more floats and just make it a parade that doesn't rely on stops to be full-length. The trucks they had when Transformers opened would be awesome. Some Shrek would be good too. Heck, throw in a few sports cars and call them Fast and Furious. SOMETHING needs to be done to it. More events in the park that are actually events and not just distractions would go a long way in keeping people in the parks, IMO.

As far as eliminating Express at RPR, I could see it pissing people off, but if they reduced the room rates, that could help increase demand there AND defend the hypothetical elimination of Express. Still don't know if I could see that happening though.
 
The other thing to keep in the thought process is the existence of Citi Walk. It's a great evening alternative within walking distance for night time entertainment. We end up spending many an evening at Pat O'Briens, Bob Marley's, Margaritaville and the like as tourists. I agree with the concept of a strong night parade and shows at both parks (hell, DHS would probably be empty every night if they didn't have Fantasmic), it would certainly help retain guests. One thing to remember about people that stay on site is that many go to the parks in the morning, hop back to the hotel pool (during hot days), and then go back to the parks. Another factor is that Disney really has no nightlife, and the few spots are far from the parks, so there's not much to do except stay in the parks at night. Magic Kingdom has a ton of attractions, so you can spend a long day there, but the other three parks have way less capacity than either of the Universal parks. And, last night, on a really busy day, Universal ride times stayed in the same range as WDW in relation to the day times. I'm going keep spot checking these wait times during this busy week to see if there's a trend emerging. When I checked hotel availability two weeks ago it looked like Universal was 100% booked from Dec. 25 through Jan. 3rd but Dec. 20 -24th still had a few King rooms available at the resorts.And another point may be that Universal doesn't really care about night crowds outside of peak times since it keeps operational costs lower and the smaller crowds may not be worth the effect on the P&L situation......This is a real good idea for a thread. Should be fun throwing these ideas around....My feeling, is that the bottom line is going to show there's a number of factors affecting this paucity of after 6:00 crowds during the not too busy days......And as another poster brought up, it looks like Universal still has that slow November through mid December period. That's something Marketing will probably have to solve.
 
I was thinking If they did several versions of Nighttime Show.If there were 3-4 Versions and you did not know what version would be playing you would stay to see it. As it is most might stay to see it one night out of whole trip of multiple days.
 
Looks like a very busy Dec. 27th morning. Here's apx. 10:00 AM wait times. Nearly all were above Touring Plans projections...Despicable Me 130 minutes, Gringotts 120 minutes, Hogwarts Express 10 minutes, Mummy 10 minutes, Rip Ride 30 minutes, Shrek 30 minutes, Simpsons 10 minutes, Transformers 45 minutes.....Dragon Challenge 60 minutes (rarely ever see this kind of time0, Forbidden Journey 90 minutes, Hippogriff 30 minutes, Hogwarts Express 10 minutes, Poseiden 45 minutes, Spiderman 40 minutes.....One real important fact is that Universal greatly expanded their capacity in the last eighteen months adding Transformers, Springfield and the Harry potter 2 expansion....
 
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I also feel that if both parks had good nighttime shows CityWalk would see the benefit. Keep people from having time to shoot up to iDrive or Downtown Disney.
 
There are some really tremendous observations about the existence of the resorts, the impact of unlimited express and early entry, as well as the overall lack of things to do once the evening rolls around.

I agree both the parade and Cinematic Spectacular need upgrades/expansions. Parade needs to be about twice the length it currently is, which I doubt will happen, sadly. Hell, they could get creative and add some smaller additions like the Simpsons RV, the old Toon Trolley (they still have that, right?), and the bridge float they use for Shrek in the Macy's parade. They aren't as elaborate as the more impressive floats, but hey, it's something. Cinematic Spectacular just needs to feel like it isn't an improved Cinesphere - or more accurately, like you aren't just watching a clip show on fancy water screens. I realize World of Color is essentially the same thing (with less fireworks), but it breaks up the action with the crazy water and color shows. If Uni used more extensive fountains, we could probably see a more compelling product.

In general, the parks need more to do, not replacements. Kong coming to Islands is a good start because that park suffers the most - no parade, not enough to do (especially if it isn't the right weather for water rides), many outdoor rides that go down when lightning strikes, and no nighttime show. We just need additional attractions all over the place to help flesh out both parks - right now Studios is comfortably a full day park without Express (that includes seeing a majority of shows), but it should be a 1.5 day park. Islands right now is a half day park, maybe a 2/3rds day park, without Express on non-peak days. It needs to be a full day experience. Not everything has to be an E-ticket showstopper: smaller experiences help flesh out the parks. The Springfield placemaking with the spinner went a long way to revitalize a dull area in the Studios, we should see more of that stuff elsewhere: let's get a small C ticket over on the Triceratops plot. Let's get another Seuss Landing dark ride. You get the idea.

I don't think Universal will ever get away with removing Express from a resort that already has it, for better or worse. The PR implications would be potentially disastrous, even with a corresponding drop in room rate: think about JetBlue's recent announcement they'd be reducing seat space and the free bag perk. Everyone's rebelling. Uni has a positive momentum right now with its resort, you can't tarnish it. The solution to keep those Express resort guests in the parks to justify later closing times is more capacity (read: more attractions) and more must-see, one-time entertainment: the parade and the nighttime show. You also need this sort of entertainment in BOTH PARKS, otherwise you see it one day and don't need to stick around again (no one needs to see Cinematic Spectacular three nights in one trip).

In the meantime, I'd expect the late night closes only during absolute peak times. They recently expanded January hours a bit for my upcoming trip (the week of the 5th now boasts 8 PM closes for both parks the majority of the week; before it was mostly 7s with some 6s and 1 8), so that has to be a decent sign in terms of projections of crowd turnout.
 
Times at apx. 11:06 AM...Looks like packed to the gills for this early....Gringotts 120 minutes, Hogwarts 15 minutes, Mummy 30 minutes, Shrek 60 minutes, Simpsons 30 minutes, Transformer 60 minutes.....Cat in the Hat 30 minutes, Doom 60 minutes, Dragons Challenfe 48 minutes, Forbidden Journey 90 minutes, Hulk 80 minutes, Poseiden 60 minutes, Spiderman 85 minutes....
 
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Looks like a very busy Dec. 27th morning. Here's apx. 10:00 AM wait times. Nearly all were above Touring Plans projections...Despicable Me 130 minutes, Gringotts 120 minutes, Hogwarts Express 10 minutes, Mummy 10 minutes, Rip Ride 30 minutes, Shrek 30 minutes, Simpsons 10 minutes, Transformers 45 minutes.....Dragon Challenge 60 minutes (rarely ever see this kind of time0, Forbidden Journey 90 minutes, Hippogriff 30 minutes, Hogwarts Express 10 minutes, Poseiden 45 minutes, Spiderman 40 minutes.....One real important fact is that Universal greatly expanded their capacity in the last eighteen months adding Transformers, Springfield and the Harry potter 2 expansion....
Let me know what the wait times are around 6-7ish. Early on the wait times are always high, as the lines are clogged with express users... the OP even pointed that out himself. Everything seems to slow down after the parade.
 
Let me know what the wait times are around 6-7ish. Early on the wait times are always high, as the lines are clogged with express users... the OP even pointed that out himself. Everything seems to slow down after the parade.

Yes, I'll try to get a report every three or four hours today. I have a couple dozen family members over for a Christmas party so I'm in & out of my home office.....Yesterday the crowd seemed to hold up pretty strong even in the evening so it will be interesting to see what happens today.Dec. 26th night percentage decline wasn't major like it usually is ,it was about the same as the Magic Kingdom percentage drop. (Yesterday's evening numbers I posted last night over on the waterpark discussion)...As I said previously, this was a good posting idea by Orlando Guy. We can compare this next week's numbers with the lower numbers that come out post January 5.
 
Apx. 12:50 PM...DM: 110 minutes, ET 45 minutes, Gringotts 90 minutes, Hogwarts 45 minutes, MIB 45 minutes, Mummy 45 minutes, Shrek 60 minutes, Simpsons 30 minutes, Transformers 120 minutes...Doom 45 minutes, Cat In Hat 45 minutes, Forbidden Journey 90 minutes, Dragon Challenge 30 minutes, Poseiden 95 minutes, Spiderman 90 minutes, Hulk 70 minutes, JP River 70 minutes, Bilge Rat 25 minutes, Ripsaw Falls 90 minutes.....Must be a nice warm day.
 
Thanksgiving doesn't surprise me. Always been more of a MK holiday, as it has that Americana feel and plenty of surrounding hotel restaurants offering a variation on a traditional turkey dinner. Also, none of Universal's marquee Christmas attractions are up at that point.

Today being busy does surprise me. Expected more of a travel day between the two holiday weeks. Wondering if this is more of a local crowd looking to get out after holidays at home. My instinct was that next week will be the busier of the two (out of towners staying home for Christmas), but curious to see hard numbers on t5hat.

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Must be a nice warm day.

Yeah, pushing 80, decent amount of sun.
 
Apx 3:15...DM 100 min, Disaster 35 minutes, ET 45 minutes, Gringotts 90 minutes, Hogwarts Ex. 45, MIB 45, Mummy 75, Rip Ride 100 minutes, Shrek 30, Simpsons 65, Transformers 90.....Bilge Rat 65 minutes, CIH 40, Carusell 35 minutes, Dragon Challenge 45, Forbidden Journey 90, Hogwarts Expess (Hogsmesde) 75, Hulk 60, JP River Adven. 60, Poseiden 95, Ripsaw 90, Spiderman 100.....Even the Pittsburgh area is like a warm sunny spring day today...
 
Universal HAS succeeded in keeping people in the parks later with CineSpec but it's time for 2.0 if they want to keep it up. A plussed-up nighttime version of the Superstar Parade would definitely help too, but like others said, it needs double the floats (not sure what they were thinking there).

Disney makes MK a destination at night with the fireworks and the nighttime parade for MK, and nighttime shows for Epcot and DHS. Of course, people leave in droves after each showing of those too so that's inevitable, just like at Universal.
 
Apx 3:15...DM 100 min, Disaster 35 minutes, ET 45 minutes, Gringotts 90 minutes, Hogwarts Ex. 45, MIB 45, Mummy 75, Rip Ride 100 minutes, Shrek 30, Simpsons 65, Transformers 90.....Bilge Rat 65 minutes, CIH 40, Carusell 35 minutes, Dragon Challenge 45, Forbidden Journey 90, Hogwarts Expess (Hogsmesde) 75, Hulk 60, JP River Adven. 60, Poseiden 95, Ripsaw 90, Spiderman 100.....Even the Pittsburgh area is like a warm sunny spring day today...

This is definitely the first day of the season that has been slammed, from my understanding.

Everyone is bringing up great points!
 
6:30 and the crowds are still huge. Every attraction line is longer than the Touring plan estimate for 6:30. Kind of a repeat of yesterday...DM 100 minutes...Disaster 20, ET 45, Hogwarts Express 35, Gringotts 90, MIB 30, Mummy 45, Rip Ride Rocket 75, Shrek 20, Simpsons 65, Transformers 90, And this surprise. Woody's Coaster 30 minutes.....CIH 45 minutes, Doom 15, Forbidden Journey 90, Hippogriff 60, Hogwarts Express Hogsmeade 60, Dragons Challenge 15, Hulk 40, )ne Fish 45, Poseidon 75, JP River 15, Pteranodon Flyers 60, Ripsaw Falls 60, Suess Trolley 40, SpiderMan 70...Pretty big crowds for supper time & after the parade...
 
Universal has been hitting over the expected attendance numbers for almost two weeks now. They are doing great. One of the best attended Christmas Peaks they've ever had.
 
8:00 PM numbers...Still real strong...the percentage drop off is about the same as Magic Kingdom, actually slightly better. Must be real crowded in there...DM 120 minutes, ET 20, Gringotts 90, Hogwarts 35, MIB 30, Mummy 45, Rip Ride 65, Simposons 40, Transformers 90.....CIH 35, Doom 25, Forbidden Journey 75, Hippogriff 10, Hogwarts 20, Dragons Challenge 15, Hulk 30, One Fish 25, Poseidon 60, Suess Trolley 30, SpiderMan 40....Plus this is Macy's Parade time
 
9:00 PM numbers, after the Macy's Parade...Still pretty busy...DM 120 minutes, ET 20, Gringotts 90, Hogwarts Express 15, MIB 20, Mummy, 20, Rip Ride 50, Simpsons 10, Transformers 120 minutes.....CIH 20 minutes, Doom 15, Forbidden Journey 75, Hogwarts 20, JP River 10, Poseidon, 50, Suess Trolley 20, SpiderMan 40....Holding the crowd pretty well like yesterday.
 
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