Good explanation why you think it fales...
I rarely post on here, but I've posted on box office forums and have been looking at daily box office and tracking everyday for 10 years. Plus I work in industry.
First off it has a bad release date. Same date as Chris Nolan Dunkirk. So it won't have IMAX or premium screens. The week before is Planet of the Apes, the week before is Spider-man. The week after is Atomic Blonde.
Keep in mind STX a new company (not a big 6 or a mini major) has not disturbed a movie that cost over 30 ish million . They have NEVER marketed blockbuster movie.
It has no big stars. No property, Good actors maybe but nobody to bring attention to it or get the GA's eyes.
The marketing hasn't had a hook. The average movie goer sees 4 movies a year. Why should we see this over all the above, keep in mind we already had Guardians this summer which is similar in color but has Pratt, a sequel, light hearted comedy tone. Guardians , Alien, transformers all took place in space this summer already.
Its not tracking well, it has terrible awareness
its twitter interactions are the lowest of the big summer movies.
its cost 190 million dollars
I hope the movies good, but Id bet my life this movie does beyond poor in north america, its a good bet.
The film community thinks its going to be DOA in terms of domestic box office. You never KNOW it could break out, but that would pretty much require Dunkirk and Apes to fail and be bad.