Effects of Coronavirus (COVID-19) On Entertainment & Tourism Industry

[Mad Dog]

Following the data though and blaming this on the "youth" isn't very accurate. If you look at % positive in each age group (which is the best indicator against the overall picture, not just raw positive cases) and the percentages don't bear out that claim. Among 5-17 age group and 18-49 age group and the percent positive of tests don't show spikes. The 18-49 age group actually see's a decrease in % positive in the more recent weeks as compared to the earlier weeks.

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but total positive cases do during the past 6-8 weeks when the surge hit. That's when the 'total number' of infected skyrocketed.....and a breakdown that had just under 30's would actually be more representative, Going to 49 kind of skews the numbers, and doesn't isolate numbers for 17 to 30 demographic, which is what we're talking about. . Up here they do a narrower breakdown, which shows it's coming primarily from under 30's, which is publicly stated by the Health Director, county & state.

 

[TommyJK]

but total positive cases do during the past 6-8 weeks when the surge hit. Thats when the 'total number' of infected skyrocketed.

Total positive cases is a meaningless number unless you take it into context of number of tests administered, and then compare it to other groups using the same criteria. More younger people are being tested now than earlier in the pandemic so obviously there will be more younger people testing positive as a raw number.

Raw numbers don't give an accurate accounting to lead to reliable conclusions as to where the biggest problems lie. You have to go by percentages to make more accurate conclusions. Just like Trump can't accurately argue that if you reduce testing, the numbers will go down. On the surface, yes the raw numbers would go down, but it doesn't tell you anything about what the virus is actually doing, where and to whom.

 

[Mad Dog]

Total positive cases is a meaningless number unless you take it into context of number of tests administered, and then compare it to other groups using the same criteria. More younger people are being tested now than earlier in the pandemic so obviously there will be more younger people testing positive as a raw number.

Raw numbers don't give an accurate accounting to lead to reliable conclusions as to where the biggest problems lie. You have to go by percentages to make more accurate conclusions. Just like Trump can't accurately argue that if you reduce testing, the numbers will go down. On the surface, yes the raw numbers would go down, but it doesn't tell you anything about what the virus is actually doing, where and to whom.

Yes, I know that. In fact, I brought that argument up in a post a number of weeks past, when it was still fairly flat around 5 or 6, before the spike. But the problem with those graphs is that they don't break down the 17-30 numbers. From what we're seeing in other areas, the older adults in that range (to 49) would probably bring infected percentages down. And, just more testing isn't always just an excuse. The huge numbers of infected, regardless of the more tests, are very concerning numbers. Example: I'd rather have 500 confirmed infected, at a 7% testing rate in a population of 10 million than 100,000 confirmed infected at a 6% rate in a population of 10 million people. When the numbers of infected get that high, even with more testing, that's a big issue. That's big time 'community spread', that's beyond present tracing capabilities.

 

[JoeCamel]

@Mad Dog , not to derail but "mill hunk" bars?? I can only imagine around your area :grin::bigeye::look:

 

[TommyJK]

Yes, I know that. In fact, I brought that argument up in a post a number of weeks past, when it was still fairly flat around 5 or 6, before the spike. But the problem with those graphs is that they don't break down the 17-30 numbers. From what we're seeing in other areas, the older adults in that range (to 49) would probably bring infected percentages down. And, just more testing isn't always just an excuse. The huge numbers of infected, regardless of the more tests, are very concerning numbers. Example: I'd rather have 500 confirmed infected, at a 7% testing rate in a population of 10 million than 100,000 confirmed infected at a 6% rate in a population of 10 million people. When the numbers of infected get that high, even with more testing, that's a big issue. That's big time 'community spread', that's beyond present tracing capabilities.

Assuming testing is fairly ubiquitous (which now in the US it pretty much is), I'd take a lower percentage any day of the week regardless of number of tests administered. With a ubiquity of testing then the percentages can be reasonably extended to the rest of the community/population at large.

 

[Mad Dog]

@Mad Dog , not to derail but "mill hunk" bars?? I can only imagine around your area :grin::bigeye::look:

There used to be a zillion of them. Grew up in Glassport, population then of 8,000...26 bars. Just as crowded at 8 AM in the morning as at 8 PM in the night. Watch the movie "The Deer Hunter" sometime. That's a mill hunk bar in the movie (mostly filmed in Mingo Junction, but takes place in Clairton, across the Monongahela river, from Glassport. 170,000 steel mill jobs in the Mon River Valley back then. We were a one horse town like Orlando is now. I saw our area collapse overnight when the jobs disappeared. One reason I'm so concerned for Orlando with it's precarious existence due to reliance on tourism. So much economic suffering was experienced by my people here, and why I'm being so tough on the Orlando area people to get their act together. The people there really need to become more individually responsible, because you know the State government isn't going to help matters much. Otherwise, things could get uglier than they are. People have responsibilities to be good citizens also, even if the government doesn't do their part.

Assuming testing is fairly ubiquitous (which now in the US it pretty much is), I'd take a lower percentage any day of the week regardless of number of tests administered. With a ubiquity of testing then the percentages can be reasonably extended to the rest of the community/population at large.

I don't agree with that. I think community spread varies very greatly depending on where you live. They're not testing large numbers in many areas if people aren't showing any symptoms.....Heck, in western Pa. we had no community spread, according to the health care experts and the health department, until the youth brought it back from vacations at Myrtle, Hilton Head, Miami, & Houston where they drank in the bars there. .All areas named in the press release. They've had a great contact tracing program here from day one so they pretty much have always known where the cases come from....and they highlight that every week in their reports. They break it down on every case, age, and so on....and they do deaths the same way......The trouble with that Florida data that spans age group 18 through 49 is that it's so broad that it doesn't really tell you anything about more specific age groups , ie 17-24, 24-30, and so on. In our area they break that down at their press conferences......not counting asymptomatic, that are surely more prominent under the younger, that don't experience any issues with covid.

 

[Scott W.]

Following the data though and blaming this on the "youth" isn't very accurate. If you look at % positive in each age group (which is the best indicator against the overall picture, not just raw positive cases) and the percentages don't bear out that claim. Among 5-17 age group and 18-49 age group and the percent positive of tests don't show spikes. The 18-49 age group actually see's a decrease in % positive in the more recent weeks as compared to the earlier weeks.

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Not that I’m disagreeing with the data but younger people might not be showing as extreme symptoms and many might not know that they have it.

In Scotland, I’ve noticed that the social problems are more with the older generation.

 

[TommyJK]

I don't agree with that. I think community spread varies very greatly depending on where you live.

Community spread varies based on 3 key factors. The % of infected within the community, coupled with the population density and activity behavior of that community. Now if the community behaviour remains the same, spread will increase at a faster rate if your baseline amount of actual infected in the community is higher.

Now where I'll concede that raw numbers can make a difference is that they can scare people into changing their behavior to curb spread. A 20% positivity rate is alarming, but if in a community of say 10 million they only report say 500 positive cases (because they only tested 2500 people), then people are more likely to go about their business without much alarm (because well 500 among 10 million *seems* small). Whereas a 5% positivity rate is less alarming, but it it's 10,000 cases (because they tested 200,000) , people could be more scared because of the raw number and change their behavior due to the perception that more people are carrying the virus.

But again, assuming testing is fairly ubiquitous, that 20% positivity rate could be reasonably extrapolated to mean that 2 million people in the community have it vs. 500,000 people.

Therein lies 2 key problems I see in the US response. a) how long it took to get to ubiquitous testing and b) having focused early on (and continuing to do so, but less so now) on raw numbers. Very early on it was easy for people (some politicians, media and the general public) to say "look how few cases we have, don't be too alarmed!". Even though early testing results from a positivity standpoint (not only in the US but the data from other countries that were hit hard earlier) should have raised big alarm bells right away as to how serious and easily/quickly this new virus spreads.

But it is what it is now. I wish my American neighbours the best of luck. I'm hoping I will be able to watch some NFL this fall and hopefully come back down to Orlando sooner rather than later.

 

[Mad Dog]

Community spread varies based on 3 key factors. The % of infected within the community, coupled with the population density and activity behavior of that community. Now if the community behaviour remains the same, spread will increase at a faster rate if your baseline amount of actual infected in the community is higher.

Now where I'll concede that raw numbers can make a difference is that they can scare people into changing their behavior to curb spread. A 20% positivity rate is alarming, but if in a community of say 10 million they only report say 500 positive cases (because they only tested 2500 people), then people are more likely to go about their business without much alarm (because well 500 among 10 million *seems* small). Whereas a 5% positivity rate is less alarming, but it it's 10,000 cases (because they tested 200,000) , people could be more scared because of the raw number and change their behavior due to the perception that more people are carrying the virus.

But again, assuming testing is fairly ubiquitous, that 20% positivity rate could be reasonably extrapolated to mean that 2 million people in the community have it vs. 500,000 people.

Therein lies 2 key problems I see in the US response. a) how long it took to get to ubiquitous testing and b) having focused early on (and continuing to do so, but less so now) on raw numbers. Very early on it was easy for people (some politicians, media and the general public) to say "look how few cases we have, don't be too alarmed!". Even though early testing results from a positivity standpoint (not only in the US but the data from other countries that were hit hard earlier) should have raised big alarm bells right away as to how serious and easily/quickly this new virus spreads.

But it is what it is now. I wish my American neighbours the best of luck. I'm hoping I will be able to watch some NFL this fall and hopefully come back down to Orlando sooner rather than later.

I agree with much of what you said.However... Here we had positivity numbers of two percent, or less, for the longest time, and we were one of the areas that did ton's of early testing since UPMC developed their own test the first week of March once the FDA gave the OK after the CDC failure. So the experts were pretty positive there was no community spread except for the nursing home problem. And that was primarily due to a new. and misguided, state policy that eventually caused spread in the homes. What makes many of us angry here is that the local hospital systems (UPMC & Univ. of Pgh. research is among the world leaders in infectious research. They developed the Salk vaccine in fact, and are working on 2 covid vaccines) did wide scale testing , even outside of people with symptoms starting in early March. . Had a team of health department/medical student volunteers from early March doing intensive testing. Issued a weekly report with complete breakdowns on age, sex, race, on confirmations, positivity numbers, deaths, and where for every zip code in western Pa. (population 3 million plus) Our lock down for most of western Pa. started in mid March and was more stringent than most areas. Masks required to enter a business. Nearly all businesses shut down. The local government and UPMC also did continual press conferences on the state of covid. Very few hospital intensive hospital beds or ventilators ever had to be used. Less than 200 intensive care beds total over a four month period for covid. Cases, even with large scale testing of a couple thousand a day yielded positive results in one digit......and then the summer graduation vacations came and covid was mostly imported in from outlying heavily infected state resorts . So we ended up at the mercy of not being able to shut down our borders, as many countries can, and people not being responsible, thinking they weren't going to get sick due to their age.....See my post itoday n the covid discussion thread that is from today's UPMC briefing, and where the cases are coming from.

 

[TommyJK]

I agree with much of what you said.However... Here we had positivity numbers of two percent, or less, for the longest time, and we were one of the areas that did ton's of early testing since UPMC developed their own test the first week of March once the FDA gave the OK after the CDC failure. So the experts were pretty positive there was no community spread except for the nursing home problem. And that was primarily due to a new. and misguided, state policy that eventually caused spread in the homes. What makes many of us angry here is that the local hospital systems (UPMC & Univ. of Pgh. research is among the world leaders in infectious research. They developed the Salk vaccine in fact, and are working on 2 covid vaccines) did wide scale testing , even outside of people with symptoms starting in early March. . Had a team of health department/medical student volunteers from early March doing intensive testing. Issued a weekly report with complete breakdowns on age, sex, race, on confirmations, positivity numbers, deaths, and where for every zip code in western Pa. (population 3 million plus) Our lock down for most of western Pa. started in mid March and was more stringent than most areas. Masks required to enter a business. Nearly all businesses shut down. The local government and UPMC also did continual press conferences on the state of covid. Very few hospital intensive hospital beds or ventilators ever had to be used. Less than 200 intensive care beds total over a four month period for covid. Cases, even with large scale testing of a couple thousand a day yielded positive results in one digit......and then the summer graduation vacations came and covid was mostly imported in from outlying heavily infected state resorts . So we ended up at the mercy of not being able to shut down our borders, as many countries can, and people not being responsible, thinking they weren't going to get sick due to their age.....See my post itoday n the covid discussion thread that is from today's UPMC briefing, and where the cases are coming from.

Of for sure. Certain areas took it much more seriously early on and were able to put into early action smart measures that worked. But to your point, external visitors who didn't/don't take it seriously have come in and hurt the good work your area did. Had those people taken it seriously early and acted better, they could have clamped down properly too. Looking at the bright side for you (if there is one) PA doesn't look to be doing that badly. Your positvity rate has gone up, but not steeply and the 2 week trend looks to have almost flattened again (which I would surmise is just the carry over the how serious your area/community took it and continue to do).

P.S. Pittsburgh is one of my favourite cities in the US I have ever visited. Was down there in 2018 and was blown away how quaint yet vibrant it was. Been craving a good Primanti Bros. sandwich ever since I came back :eat:

 

[Mad Dog]

Of for sure. Certain areas took it much more seriously early on and were able to put into early action smart measures that worked. But to your point, external visitors who didn't/don't take it seriously have come in and hurt the good work your area did. Had those people taken it seriously early and acted better, they could have clamped down properly too. Looking at the bright side for you (if there is one) PA doesn't look to be doing that badly. Your positvity rate has gone up, but not steeply and the 2 week trend looks to have almost flattened again (which I would surmise is just the carry over the how serious your area/community took it and continue to do).

P.S. Pittsburgh is one of my favourite cities in the US I have ever visited. Was down there in 2018 and was blown away how quaint yet vibrant it was. Been craving a good Primanti Bros. sandwich ever since I came back :eat:

Mark @UK-Trigg had a Primanti's, and loved it, when he stayed with us for a week during his four week vacation to the states. Check out his thread Epic trip on the IU trip report thread (pg. 2) . Photos of Pittsburgh, Mark at primanti's & the Hofbrauhaus etc. ...Yes, the city is really beautiful now. In the 40's & 50's it was one of the ugliest cities in the world. ...Yes, they took quick action last week and shut down the bars/restaurants for a week with the holidays popping up. They get to open up again tomorrow for a trial two week run, if they're good boys and play by the rules, they can stay open after that. and promised extra inspections of the college crowd bars. No 'indoor dining or drinking though. That little change in the covid strain seems to make it really more infectious indoors.. /threads/an epic-adventure-a-live-interactive-trip-report.13437/ ....Mark is from Derby, England. He was here in Sept. 2018....and then went to Cedar Point, Dollywood, Disney Cruise, universal & Disney....all photos in his trip report. Probably the most complete ever on IU. It's a fun, informative read.

 

[TommyJK]

Mark @UK-Trigg had a Primanti's, and loved it, when he stayed with us for a week during his four week vacation to the states. Check out his thread Epic trip on the IU trip report thread (pg. 2) . Photos of Pittsburgh, Mark at primanti's & the Hofbrauhaus etc. ...Yes, the city is really beautiful now. In the 40's & 50's it was one of the ugliest cities in the world. ...Yes, they took quick action last week and shut down the bars/restaurants for a week with the holidays popping up. They get to open up again tomorrow for a trial two week run, if they're good boys and play by the rules, they can stay open after that. and promised extra inspections of the college crowd bars. No 'indoor dining or drinking though. That little change in the covid strain seems to make it really more infectious indoors.....An EPIC Adventure-A Live & Interactive trip report ....Mark is from Darby. He was here in Sept. 2018....and then went to Cedar Point, Dollywood, Disney Cruise, universal & Disney....all photos in his trip report. Probably the most complete ever on IU. It's a fun, informative read.

Knowing that Pittsburgh was a former steel town I had a preconceived notion before coming that it might be a bit run down/derelict (like a similar town up here, Hamilton, had become after most of its steel mills shut down). But I was pleasantly surprised with how great it was and learned a lot from locals I chatted with about how it revitalized itself after the steel mills all shut down. Anyways getting off topic.....

 

[Mad Dog]

Knowing that Pittsburgh was a former steel town I had a preconceived notion before coming that it might be a bit run down/derelict (like a similar town up here, Hamilton, had become after most of its steel mills shut down). But I was pleasantly surprised with how great it was and learned a lot from locals I chatted with about how it revitalized itself after the steel mills all shut down. Anyways getting off topic.....

Yep, everyone has that preconceived notion...........OMG....I've been to Hamilton many times, Tiger Cats,and a former friend of mine by the name of Fleming was a star football player up there, and Paterra , asst. coach there long ago was a neighbor in my hometown. .....Here's a story we told on Mark's Epic Adventure thread.....My Canadian relatives, who live in Toronto's northern suburbs (King's Rd.) used to come here for a two week vacation every August and stay at my Uncle's farm. They had season tickets to the Hamilton Tiger Cats, since Toronto had a god awful team. The tradition was to trick someone into saying the word "Cats". Once said, everyone had to stop what they're doing and drink an imperial shot of Jim Beam bourbon, their fav whiskey. Once the bottle was emptied we hung it along the other dozens of empty Jim Beam bottles on a giant ancient oak tree. Mark loved the tradition and we started it anew here, and continued it in Orlando on Disney property (Tourism thread story ), and in Orlando again in Feb. with Disneyhead & Mark......and to keep this on the tourism/covid topic thread....I'd imagine almost no one from Canada is visiting Orlando right now with all the quarantine restrictions. Any info on that.

 

[TommyJK]

......and to keep this on the tourism/covid topic thread....I'd imagine almost no one from Canada is visiting Orlando right now with all the quarantine restrictions.

Nope. Border's still closed (and I'm assuming it will stay closed for quite some time). Had a trip planned to Cedar Point this summer that won't happen, but thankfully the tickets I have can be carried over to next year. Was also planning my first visit to Lambeau field this fall but that too won't happen.

I'm happy to wait things out until there's a vaccine or the US can get things sorted out to negligible positivity rates.

 

[Mad Dog]

Nope. Border's still closed (and I'm assuming it will stay closed for quite some time). Had a trip planned to Cedar Point this summer that won't happen, but thankfully the tickets I have can be carried over to next year. Was also planning my first visit to Lambeau field this fall but that too won't happen.

I'm happy to wait things out until there's a vaccine or the US can get things sorted out to negligible positivity rates.

Unfortunately, I think the vaccine will long precede negligible positivity rates in much of the USA. Too many look at covid as not being something that will affect them personally, so they end up acting irresponsible.... Hopefully, we become an island in western Pa., as we were before the troubles of the past couple of weeks. Time will tell......Hopefully, the Canadians will be back by early next spring. :thumbsup:

 

[TommyJK]

Unfortunately, I think the vaccine will long precede negligible positivity rates in much of the USA. Too many look at covid as not being something that will affect them personally, so they end up acting irresponsible.... Hopefully, we become an island in western Pa., as we were before the troubles of the past couple of weeks. Time will tell......Hopefully, the Canadians will be back by early next spring. :thumbsup:

Ya. Even IF a vaccine is made optimistically by the end of the year/early next year, my guess is that by the time it's available in enough quantities to regular folks like us (after understandably being given to front line workers first, higher risk folks, followed by rich folks with connections....) it might be a good while.

Just hoping I get to see Rodgers at Lambeau field before he's gone (which I wager will be after the 2021 season).

 

[Nick]

I feel like this is worth mentioning:


Granted, I still don't think the NFL season or MLB season will happen and be completed - Especially if the NBA struggles as they have the most controlled environment of any sports league (and fewer players and staff than any other league).

 

[JoeCamel]

I feel like this is worth mentioning:


Granted, I still don't think the NFL season or MLB season will happen and be completed - Especially if the NBA struggles as they have the most controlled environment of any sports league (and fewer players and staff than any other league).

With the RNC scheduled for Jacksonville and this maybe we have some competition for Miami's #1 case title?
Yeah, I cannot see them getting a season out of this but the money talks

 

[Legacy]

I feel like this is worth mentioning:


Granted, I still don't think the NFL season or MLB season will happen and be completed - Especially if the NBA struggles as they have the most controlled environment of any sports league (and fewer players and staff than any other league).

Eh. 25% is their normal attendance.

 

[JoeCamel]

Eh. 25% is their normal attendance.

But now with distancing!