Effects of Coronavirus (COVID-19) On Entertainment & Tourism Industry

[frank_1991_]

Bob Iger Thought He Was Leaving on Top. Now, He’s Fighting for Disney’s Life. (Published 2020)

The former C.E.O. thought he was riding into the sunset. Now he’s reasserting control and reimagining Disney as a company with fewer employees and more thermometers.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Brian G.]

Also - ENTERTAINMENT AND TOURISM THREAD!

 

[RevFreako]

Also - ENTERTAINMENT AND TOURISM THREAD!

If I ever tell you I want to be a mod, please just kick me in the junk as hard as you can. I'll remember why.

 

[Grabnar]

You can easily argue the other point; namely the fact that many people are naturally immune too. Not asymptomatic, but immune.

Make no mistake, 1% of the world's population going away would be devastating.
Taking humanity out of it and looking at it like a robot; it would be mainly elderly, "non-contributors", so the world would keep turning just fine. It would actually be the worst in America vs other countries where it would take out a lot of contributing and valuable members of society that we need that just so happened to be obese. Again- looking at it with no humanity (obviously grandma and grandpa bring significant value to our individual wellbeing; but usually not society as a whole). So saying "Countries may not survive otherwise" is factually incorrect.

Either way, the fall of 2021 talk and next week talk are two ends of the very extreme and we still don't have the data to truly predict. As we have more data, the predictions will be more and more accurate. I wouldn't be surprised to see that fall 2021 become summer, then spring, then winter, then fall 2020 as more and more data comes out. Would you?

I'm leaning more towards doomer, personally, but it really depends on how much (and/or how many people) society is willing to sacrifice over the next 12-18 months. If we open the gates and say everyone "back to work" tomorrow it would be catastrophic. If we get a firm handle on testing, start producing enough PPE for everyday wear, get an idea of how many people are immune from prior exposure, and get those people back to work, I think we'll be in a much better place while waiting for a vaccine.

I'm thinking that if we get masks and sanitization more stabilized in the US we'll start seeing domestic travel to parks re-opening by Summer. I'm hoping that events are limited, though. I think that having NYE magic kingdom crowds would be extremely unwise.

On another note, does anyone have any better data about FL cases? I've seen that they're only reporting cases from the public testing sites which is something like 10% of the overall testing in the state. I haven't seen a lot of follow-up in regards to Spring Break exported cases from Disney, but the mouse has more media influence than most

 

[Moose84]

You can easily argue the other point as well, though; namely the fact that many people are naturally immune. Not asymptomatic, but immune.

Make no mistake though, @Moose84, 1% of the world's population going away would be devastating.
Taking humanity out of it and looking at it like a robot; it would be mainly elderly, "non-contributors", so the world would keep turning just fine. It would actually be the worst in America vs other countries where it would take out a lot of contributing and valuable members of society that we need that just so happened to be obese. Again- looking at it with no humanity (obviously grandma and grandpa bring significant value to our individual wellbeing; but usually not society as a whole). So saying "Countries may not survive otherwise" is factually incorrect.

Have no tourism until Fall 2021 in the Philippines or Vietnam or Thailand and see what that does to those countries. The death toll and destruction of quality of life would surpass anything Corona could have possibly ever done.

Either way, the fall of 2021 talk and next week talk are two ends of the very extreme and we still don't have the data to truly predict. As we have more data, the predictions will be more and more accurate. I wouldn't be surprised to see that fall 2021 become summer, then spring, then winter, then fall 2020 as more and more data comes out. Would you?

I agreed in my original post that losing that 1% would be absolutely awful.

I also agree that opening the economy completely next week is not in the cards but a staggered opening beginning in late may early June and continuing over the following months to get everything mostly going by the fall is an absolute must otherwise the virus may be the least of our worries.

 

[youhow2]

So are they going to cancel the Olympics again then? Also, aren't we 12-15 months away from a vaccine at worst? I sure hope that expert's opinion is an extreme overreaction.

12-18 months is the minimum viable timeline to produce a vaccine on an accelerated schedule, That's the absolute best case scenario they are selling. Let's not even begin to start talking if these early trials start failing. It seems though, within that time frame we should at least have viable treatment options and other means to keep spread at bay.

This is not something that just goes away with time, This is something we have to MAKE go away, and we'll have to make it go away however best we can, until we have a vaccine that is safe and effective. One false move, and all the things people are saying will happen if we don't go back to work, "reopen the economy" etc. will happen anyways.

 

[Moose84]

Just FYI people, the virus is terrible and no one is saying it’s not but thinking a shutdown of 18 months will only save lives is purely being oblivious to how individuals, society, and the world works.

 

[Clive]

Just FYI people, the virus is terrible and no one is saying it’s not but thinking a shutdown of 18 months will only save lives is purely being oblivious to how individuals, society, and the world works.

To actually ground this in entertainment (and the rest of this discussion can surely carry on in the general thread), I doubt the theme parks would survive if they were forced to remain closed for 18 months.

 

[RevFreako]

To actually ground this in entertainment (and the rest of this discussion can surely carry on in the general thread), I doubt the theme parks would survive if they were forced to remain closed for 18 months.

If that's what it takes, that's what it takes.

 

[Clive]

If that's what it takes, that's what it takes.

Let me put it another way: all entertainment venues, and most other businesses, period, would not survive. How exactly do you think people are going to fare in an 18-month lockdown without refreshed entertainment (or companies that cannot remain solvent enough to continue to run their streaming platforms)? We can wax optimism about getting creative in the pandemic - stuff like the pre-taped SNL this past weekend - but that is a band-aid.

I'll be the first to admit I've made some alarmist comments in this and the other thread, but no, it's not "if that's what it takes, that's what it takes." At that point, the potential damage of the virus will be far outstripped to that lockdowns will inflict on society. Tens of millions (if not hundreds of millions) of lives would not economically recover. There will be another way. There will be risks, to be sure, but they aren't going to keep the parks shut.

 

[RevFreako]

Let me put it another way: all entertainment venues, and most other businesses, period, would not survive. How exactly do you think people are going to fare in an 18-month lockdown without refreshed entertainment (or companies that cannot remain solvent enough to continue to run their streaming platforms)? We can wax optimism about getting creative in the pandemic - stuff like the pre-taped SNL this past weekend - but that is a band-aid.

I'll be the first to admit I've made some alarmist comments in this and the other thread, but no, it's not "if that's what it takes, that's what it takes." At that point, the potential damage of the virus will be far outstripped to that lockdowns will inflict on society. Tens of millions (if not hundreds of millions) of lives would not economically recover. There will be another way. There will be risks, to be sure, but they aren't going to keep the parks shut.

I would burn the parks down, if that was what it took. "If that's what it takes" isn't alarmist, thanks, it's my position. I don't know if you misread me or what.

 

[fryoj]

I would burn the parks down, if that was what it took. "If that's what it takes" isn't alarmist, thanks, it's my position. I don't know if you misread me or what.

If you really think entertainment is the only thing that would be obliterated by an 18 month shutdown, you are fooling yourself. Hell hospitals and doctors are already in trouble because they can't do elective surgeries. The food chain is breaking down in places. If you are ok with society breaking down, alarmist isn't the word I'd use, but there are ones I would.

 

[RevFreako]

If you really think entertainment is the only thing that would be obliterated by an 18 month shutdown, you are fooling yourself. Hell hospitals and doctors are already in trouble because they can't do elective surgeries. The food chain is breaking down in places. If you are ok with society breaking down, alarmist isn't the word I'd use, but there are ones I would.

I don't much care which words you'd use, with all respect. I recognize what an 18 month shutdown would do, and I also recognize what opening back up too early because the "president" said so would do, and the two scenarios don't seem all that different.

 

[fryoj]

I don't much care which words you'd use, with all respect. I recognize what an 18 month shutdown would do, and I also recognize what opening back up too early because the "president" said so would do, and the two scenarios don't seem all that different.

No one brought politics into this, so there's no reason for you to. The governors are going to decide when they reopen anyway.

Either way, there's a lot more options than opening the parks too early and stay closed 18 months. I've not seen anyone on here advocating to open right now. You are fine with them being closed 18 months. I really can't wrap my head around that.

 

[GadgetGuru]

Bob Iger Thought He Was Leaving on Top. Now, He’s Fighting for Disney’s Life. (Published 2020)

The former C.E.O. thought he was riding into the sunset. Now he’s reasserting control and reimagining Disney as a company with fewer employees and more thermometers.

www.nytimes.com

Can anybody list an interview Bob Chapek has given in the last month? Heck, a quote he’s given in the past month?

Bob Iger seems more in charge of the company now than he did when he left the company.

When this is all over, Chapek can’t possibly take the blame. He hasn’t done anything!

 

[Happytycho]

I'm leaning more towards doomer, personally, but it really depends on how much (and/or how many people) society is willing to sacrifice over the next 12-18 months. If we open the gates and say everyone "back to work" tomorrow it would be catastrophic. If we get a firm handle on testing, start producing enough PPE for everyday wear, get an idea of how many people are immune from prior exposure, and get those people back to work, I think we'll be in a much better place while waiting for a vaccine.

I'm thinking that if we get masks and sanitization more stabilized in the US we'll start seeing domestic travel to parks re-opening by Summer. I'm hoping that events are limited, though. I think that having NYE magic kingdom crowds would be extremely unwise.

On another note, does anyone have any better data about FL cases? I've seen that they're only reporting cases from the public testing sites which is something like 10% of the overall testing in the state. I haven't seen a lot of follow-up in regards to Spring Break exported cases from Disney, but the mouse has more media influence than most

The problem I'm seeing is that nothing indicates we will actually be getting enough testing and PPE anytime soon (meaning not soon enough for re-opening by summer). We still need massive, massive increases in (both types of) testing, and all the reports I've seen still talk about only having enough for a few percent of the population by summer, not enough for the widespread testing we would need to reopen.

 

[RevFreako]

No one brought politics into this, so there's no reason for you to. The governors are going to decide when they reopen anyway.

Either way, there's a lot more options than opening the parks too early and stay closed 18 months. I've not seen anyone on here advocating to open right now. You are fine with them being closed 18 months. I really can't wrap my head around that.

I would prefer they not be, but no one with any authority is predicting less than 12-18 months on a vaccine - and shy a vaccine, the parks will be petri dishes for Covid.

 

[Clive]

To be clear - when I said alarmist, I was referring to my own comment of saying "the potential damage of the virus will be far outstripped to that lockdowns will inflict on society."

With that said, there isn't going to be much of a functioning world left - entertainment or otherwise - if we go with a full 18 month lockdown. Anyone calling for that is most likely in a relatively secure financial position with a great number of resources. You have to understand how this lockdown is disproportionately affecting people - including the hundreds of thousands of employees furloughed by shuttered theme parks. If the argument is really "burn theme parks and the entertainment industry to the ground" to avoid any easing of restrictions, you're arguing for the near-permanent destruction of millions of jobs. That, frankly, is not a tenable solution, no matter your politics. (And not to bring politics too far into this, but I am not a fan of the president and am abhorred by the federal handling.)

No one is saying the parks, or any entertainment venue, should reopen tomorrow or next week. Any plans to do so without mass testing is silly. However, entire industries, entertainment and otherwise, will disintegrate in an indefinite lockdown. (This isn't even getting into the fact that compliance will indeed also disintegrate the longer this goes, especially as the curve flattens and we don't reopen.)

The fact that we aren't ramping up testing due to supply chain hiccups/federal malfeasance/etc. is a separate but equally worrying problem. It's the solution, and we aren't pursuing it.

 

[RevFreako]

To be clear - when I said alarmist, I was referring to my own comment of saying "the potential damage of the virus will be far outstripped to that lockdowns will inflict on society."

With that said, there isn't going to be much of a functioning world left - entertainment or otherwise - if we go with a full 18 month lockdown. Anyone calling for that is most likely in a relatively secure financial position with a great number of resources. You have to understand how this lockdown is disproportionately affecting people - including the hundreds of thousands of employees furloughed by shuttered theme parks. If the argument is really "burn theme parks and the entertainment industry to the ground" to avoid any easing of restrictions, you're arguing for the near-permanent destruction of millions of jobs. That, frankly, is not a tenable solution, no matter your politics. (And not to bring politics too far into this, but I am not a fan of the president and am abhorred by the federal handling.)

No one is saying the parks, or any entertainment venue, should reopen tomorrow or next week. Any plans to do so without mass testing is silly. However, entire industries, entertainment and otherwise, will disintegrate in an indefinite lockdown. (This isn't even getting into the fact that compliance will indeed also disintegrate the longer this goes, especially as the curve flattens and we don't reopen.)

The fact that we aren't ramping up testing due to supply chain hiccups/federal malfeasance/etc. is a separate but equally worrying problem. It's the solution, and we aren't pursuing it.

I'm calling for it, if that's what it takes, and I'm certainly not financially secure - if unemployment doesn't kick in, and I'm in Florida, so who frickin knows, I lose Monopoly in three months, and that's with cashing out my 401k. My argument is that if it takes 18 months, but we say "eff it, we're reopening things now" and we're not in significantly better position than we are now, we're headed to Mad Maxland just the same.

 

[Nick]

Also - ENTERTAINMENT AND TOURISM THREAD!

That seems to be my fault I guess. Although my initial reasoning for posting here was because of the Concerts and Sports connection... wasn't expecting the conversation to go the direction it did.

And just to combat everyone worried about the Fall 2021 thing I mentioned in my post, you guys didn't read far enough. They said social distancing measures should remain in place to an extent as we open up. That's what we've been expecting. I think there's a real debate to be had about whether Concerts or sporting events with packed arenas should happen until there's a vaccine. I personally don't see it as a good thing as of right now.