Theatrical Future/PVOD Thread

[joelbryant11]

Nothing is a shoe-in for $1 Billion anymore.

We may well have seen the last $1B grossing movie if theaters close en masse. It’s being reported that 40% of China’s theaters may close, on top of AMC potentially going under.

It’s going to release in 2022. We will have a vaccine by then. People are going to be going to movies. There’s going to be a huge appetite for a big crossover event-level film by then. If some chains close, people will still find a way to go to the existing theatres. It’s going to be huge, but what the exact ceiling is I have no idea.

 

[tielo]

In the Netherlands cinemas are open, limited capacity but they are open.Theme parks like Efteling are open (also limited). No face masks anywhere ever for general public. Still about 5 to 9 people end up in the hospital each day (not IC) and there are about 17 million in this small country.
US us about a week or 2 or 3 behind (you all got it later) so expect a week or 2 or 3 until cinema's will open (just a guess).

 

[Nick]

In the Netherlands cinemas are open, limited capacity but they are open.Theme parks like Efteling are open (also limited). No face masks anywhere ever for general public. Still about 5 to 9 people end up in the hospital each day (not IC) and there are about 17 million in this small country.
US us about a week or 2 or 3 behind (you all got it later) so expect a week or 2 or 3 until cinema's will open (just a guess).

Open and make no money? The only new movie scheduled to come out in theaters in July that are mid-level or up are Russel Crowe's Unhinged (July 10th), Disney's Mulan (July 24th) and Tenet (July 31st). Both Unhinged and Tenet just moved from their previous dates (July 1st and July 17th) and it's still possible that all three movies may move again out of July or onto PVOD in the case of Unhinged and Mulan (yes, Mulan's Plan B is PVOD, not Disney+).

Are people really going to risk their lives to watch old movies? Not many will and the main source of revenue for theaters is concessions. If movie theaters are enforcing social distancing and Masks (as at the very least AMC has said they will), people will be less likely to buy concessions, as their mouth is covered anyway if they are following guidelines. You say that there are no masks in public, which, as much as the media shames people, a good part of the country is trying to wear masks or at the very least has them (whereas before they likely didn't).

It sounds like our situations are pretty different and I just can't see how theaters are reopening in the first week or two of July in the US. I say that not really even due to health concerns (b/c I know if they could, they totally would open), but more due to the overwhelming business concerns that theaters would face due to the effects of a 1-2 punch of both consumer fear and no new content to offer. I also think the limited amount of new content they have will suffer simply because it's "going first". With so many things hitting PVOD recently, I think a lot of people will say, "Why do I have to go to a theater to see that? Just put it on Amazon." I don't say that lightly either, because if you go to the beginning of this thread, you'll see how staunch I was in the camp of Theaters.

I honestly think there's a chance theaters don't make it through this, or at the very least, the current model is definitely gone for good. We could be looking at a world where companies like Disney, Apple, Amazon, Comcast, AT&T are all about to save the movie chains by buying all of these individual chains at rock bottom prices.

 

[TheGentTrent]

Open and make no money? The only new movie scheduled to come out in theaters in July that are mid-level or up are Russel Crowe's Unhinged (July 10th), Disney's Mulan (July 24th) and Tenet (July 31st). Both Unhinged and Tenet just moved from their previous dates (July 1st and July 17th) and it's still possible that all three movies may move again out of July or onto PVOD in the case of Unhinged and Mulan (yes, Mulan's Plan B is PVOD, not Disney+).

Are people really going to risk their lives to watch old movies? Not many will and the main source of revenue for theaters is concessions. If movie theaters are enforcing social distancing and Masks (as at the very least AMC has said they will), people will be less likely to buy concessions, as their mouth is covered anyway if they are following guidelines. You say that there are no masks in public, which, as much as the media shames people, a good part of the country is trying to wear masks or at the very least has them (whereas before they likely didn't).

It sounds like our situations are pretty different and I just can't see how theaters are reopening in the first week or two of July in the US. I say that not really even due to health concerns (b/c I know if they could, they totally would open), but more due to the overwhelming business concerns that theaters would face due to the effects of a 1-2 punch of both consumer fear and no new content to offer. I also think the limited amount of new content they have will suffer simply because it's "going first". With so many things hitting PVOD recently, I think a lot of people will say, "Why do I have to go to a theater to see that? Just put it on Amazon." I don't say that lightly either, because if you go to the beginning of this thread, you'll see how staunch I was in the camp of Theaters.

I honestly think there's a chance theaters don't make it through this, or at the very least, the current model is definitely gone for good. We could be looking at a world where companies like Disney, Apple, Amazon, Comcast, AT&T are all about to save the movie chains by buying all of these individual chains at rock bottom prices.

Has AMC stated how they'll enforce the mask policy? Obviously, you can't eat or drink concessions with them on, so there's gotta be some leeway there. But with the theater being so dark, how will anyone be able to tell who is and isn't wearing their mask properly? Is it possible we see a return of the theater ushers?

 

[Nick]

Has AMC stated how they'll enforce the mask policy? Obviously, you can't eat or drink concessions with them on, so there's gotta be some leeway there. But with the theater being so dark, how will anyone be able to tell who is and isn't wearing their mask properly? Is it possible we see a return of the theater ushers?

I doubt they'll enforce it in the actual theaters too heavily. They will probably make sure to limit capacity to like 25% per auditorium, meaning there will be plenty of room between your group and the next group, way more than 6 feet apart. I assume they'll do a wipe down at the end of the showing.

How comfortable people feel knowing that masks will likely be down during the movie in an enclosed room will be up to each individual. I think it will take awhile for public trust to be regained with movie theaters. It'll take the right movie that is high-profile enough to make people care enough. The question to me is, "Is TENET that movie?" and in this environment, I sort of think no. I think the theaters will need to prove to people that they're safe, which means some films will ultimately be sacrificial lambs. I'd say it's why TENET moved back behind Mulan.

 

[OLSinFLA]

Has AMC stated how they'll enforce the mask policy? Obviously, you can't eat or drink concessions with them on, so there's gotta be some leeway there. But with the theater being so dark, how will anyone be able to tell who is and isn't wearing their mask properly? Is it possible we see a return of the theater ushers?

Surprisingly quiet a few theaters actually have infrared cameras installed. That was to catch people filming the screen. (If you look up and see the square rectangle that looks like its full of bumps - that's an infrared lighting source so good chance there's a camera somewhere than be focused around seats in the theater)

 

[joelbryant11]

'Jurassic World: Dominion' Aiming To Resume Production In July, Set Will Be Taking More Extreme Health Measures - SlashFilm

After shutting down the shoot four weeks into their schedule, Universal will finally have Jurassic World: Dominion resuming production in July.

www.slashfilm.com

Universal is kicking in $5 million extra into the Jurassic World: Dominion budget for COVID-related costs, including tons of tests. A lot of interesting stuff in here, including about other ways that the budget has been inflated due to the pandemic.

 

[quinnmac000]

‘Invisible Man’ Reclaims No. 1 In Weekend 16 As Universal Owns Bulk Of Top 10 Despite ‘King Of Staten Island’ Sitting Out

For a second time, Universal/Blumhouse's Elisabeth Moss horror movie The Invisible Man has taken the top spot at the box office.

deadline.com

For a second time, Universal/Blumhouse’s Elisabeth Moss horror movie The Invisible Man has taken the top spot at the box office.

That win, in the pic’s 16th weekend, reps its second No. 1 finish since opening over the February 28-March 1 weekend, thus stepping on the nine-week streak of the studio’s DreamWorks Animation sequel Trolls World Tour, $383,000 to $275,700.

In fact, Universal’s movies — despite all the hullabaloo about Judd Apatow’s The King of Staten Island being pulled from theaters at the last minute, some reporting over “terms” — owned six spots in this weekend’s top 10 (eight in the top 20 if you count their rerelease of Jaws with $116K and Focus Features’ The High Note, which did $59K at 64 locales for a running three-weekend total of $293K).

Universal wouldn’t have shied away from another title in the distressed marketplace if they could, but as we told you its last-minute decision to pull King of Staten Island stemmed from the filmmakers wanting to keep the movie strictly on PVOD.

A studio source says about the booking of the Judd Apatow-directed Pete Davidson movie, “It was a misunderstanding, and we asked for those theaters that had booked it, not to play it.”

As we reported Friday, exhibitors we spoke with had zero problems with Uni’s terms — in fact they said that the studio was generous with some indies seeing a 60% share. It’s interesting that the studio, which has taken a licking from theater owners over their theatrical-PVOD aspirations, is supplying those indie theaters and drive-ins, which are braving it during COVID-19 with the most product.

1..The Invisible Man (Uni/Blumhouse) 147 (+26) theaters, 3-day: $383K (+37%), cume $67.8M/Wk 16
2..Trolls World Tour (Uni) 248 (+51) theaters 3-day: $275,700 (-9%), cume: $3.6M/Wk 10
3..Back to the Future (Uni) 91 theaters, 3-day: $263,200/Running lifetime cume: $211.4M/Wk 1 of 2020 reissue
4..The Hunt (Uni) 83 (+19) theaters, 3-day: $227,800 (+21%), cume: $8.1M/Wk 14
5..Jumanji: The Next Level (Sony) 92 theaters (+24) 3-day: $212,700 (+26%), cume: $323M/Wk 27
6..E.T. (Uni) 78 theaters, 3-day: $195K/lifetime cume: $435.3M/Wk 1 of 2020 reissue
7..Becky (Quiver) 50 theaters (+5), 3-day: $187,600 (-9%), cume: $482,6K /wk 2
8..Jurassic Park (Uni) 132 theaters, 3-day: $158,700,lifetime cume: $403M /wk 1 of 2020 reissue
9..The Goonies (WB) 136 theaters (+70) 3-day: $154,700 (+39%), lifetime cume: $62.7M/Wk 2 of 2020 reissue
10..The Wretched (IFC) 99 theaters (-), 3-day: $148,400 (-25%), cume: $1.37M/Wk 7
11..Infamous (Vertical) 54 theaters, 3-day: $140,700/Wk 1

 

[awhen]

Surprisingly quiet a few theaters actually have infrared cameras installed. That was to catch people filming the screen. (If you look up and see the square rectangle that looks like its full of bumps - that's an infrared lighting source so good chance there's a camera somewhere than be focused around seats in the theater)

Or just an IR emitter for hearing impaired headsets and closed caption decoders.

 

[ThemeParks4Life]

‘Scoob!’, After Skipping Theaters, Hits HBO Max Next Week

Warner Bros. feature animated film Scoob! which opted to have a PVOD and digital ownership release instead of theatrical given exhibition’s shutdown during COVID-19, will stream on HBO Max on June 26, it was just announced. The pic was first scheduled for theaters on May 15 before segueing for a...

deadline.com

@quinnmac000 posted this article in the HBO Max thread, but this particular bit is worth mentioning here:

Unlike Universal’s near $100M grossing (probably more now) domestic PVOD release of Trolls World Tour, no numbers were leaked out about how Scoob! did, but I heard whispers it made about 35% to 40% less than Trolls World Tour.

That means Scoob has made 60-65M, and with theaters getting 10% of the cut alongside platform shares, WB has likely received less than 50M on Scoob after a month. For a movie that cost between 70-100M, it's not a good result.

 

[MrBlonde]

‘Scoob!’, After Skipping Theaters, Hits HBO Max Next Week

Warner Bros. feature animated film Scoob! which opted to have a PVOD and digital ownership release instead of theatrical given exhibition’s shutdown during COVID-19, will stream on HBO Max on June 26, it was just announced. The pic was first scheduled for theaters on May 15 before segueing for a...

deadline.com

@quinnmac000 posted this article in the HBO Max thread, but this particular bit is worth mentioning here:



That means Scoob has made 60-65M, and with theaters getting 10% of the cut alongside platform shares, WB has likely received less than 50M on Scoob after a month. For a movie that cost between 70-100M, it's not a good result.

I think Trolls was lucky as it was the first to do it, it's a sequel so people knew what to expect, and there was pent up demand from being stuck inside the house. As more things get released PVOD, I think it'll definitely be on the high end.

 

[quinnmac000]

Universal has reported their other PVOD films have done really well so I'm more inclined to think its the type of films that were released and not the fact they were the first. Also regarding Scoob!, when people can buy the film, you reduce the number of repeated rentals. but it also shows that many people didn't want to buy the film to begin with.

 

[Mad Dog]

I think Trolls was lucky as it was the first to do it, it's a sequel so people knew what to expect, and there was pent up demand from being stuck inside the house. As more things get released PVOD, I think it'll definitely be on the high end.

You're probably right on. Trolls had 'perfect' timing....as the covid threat and lock downs, or imminent lock downs, were first happening.

 

[Clive]

You're probably right on. Trolls had 'perfect' timing....as the covid threat and lock downs, or imminent lock downs, were first happening.

Scoob also faced the obstacle of an obvious identity crisis (is an origin story or the start of a shared universe?) and a long history of franchise feature installments being sent direct to DVD/VOD. More polished animation aside, it wasn't exactly clear why audiences should pay $20 to rent this film versus any of the other more affordable VOD Scooby-Doo films.

 

[deadbydawn]

AMC Theaters is planning to re-open in July and won't require that guests wear masks.

AMC Theatres Unveils Plans to Reopen During Coronavirus

As it reopens during coronavirus, AMC Theatres will limit seating capacity and add cleanings, but it won't require customers to wear masks.

variety.com

 

[Clive]

AMC Theaters is planning to re-open in July and won't require that guests wear masks.

AMC Theatres Unveils Plans to Reopen During Coronavirus

As it reopens during coronavirus, AMC Theatres will limit seating capacity and add cleanings, but it won't require customers to wear masks.

variety.com

Yeahhhhhh this is a bad look. My guess is they ran some sort of polling and determined it's better to court the people who are less worried about COVID (and are thus more likely to visit a theater as the pandemic continues) than cater to the folks who still won't leave their house. Will probably backfire and end up not pleasing anyone, and it's a bit moot since you have to take a mask (required or not) off to eat your popcorn and soda...

 

[Jamesh22]

Trolls had a ton of advertising for the PVOD release where as I saw none for Scoob! - You need to get the message out even if everyone is stuck at home.

 

[AlexanderMBush]

 

[rageofthegods]

That didn't take long.

AMC’s Adam Aron Changes Course On Circuit’s “Political” Mask Policy: “We Now Will Require That All AMC Guests Nationwide Wear Masks”

CEO Adam Aron said the theatre chain is now requiring patrons to wear masks whether local ordinances require it or not.

deadline.com

Edit: @AlexanderMBush Missed it by a hair lol

 

[AlexanderMBush]

Good to see AMC's head out of the arse, but it's still bad that it had to take outcry to make the change possible.

This should've even been a nondiscussion.