I made a quick trip into the park this afternoon, since I had some shopping to do at Citywalk. One observation about crowd flows: the Universal Plaza was crowded as usual around 5:20pm as people were finding their spots for the first tree lighting at 5:30pm. I wandered over to see how long the line for entry into Hogsmeade was and I was surprised to not see much of a line at all. I decided to get into queue and was able to join the group being let into Hogsmeade right at that moment. Yes, I was in the back of that group, but considering how long the lines had been the previous two weekends, this was surprising.
After watching the 5:30 Castle projection show, I hurried out to get my shopping done. However, I looked at the line to enter Hogsmeade again and this time it was longer. I noticed a a steady stream of people leaving the Universal Plaza--after the first tree lighting ceremony--to go see the Christmas at Hogwarts show. I have a feeling the crowds and lines to get into Hogsmeade might peak right after that first tree lighting. So, if you're trying to do both, it's just something to keep in mind.
P.S. I love seeing the Christmas lights up in Hogsmeade after dark. It really gets you into that Christmas spirit.