Speaking of attendance I think Uni's ideal plan is to have the parks have the same amount of attendance (or just off by a little). They don't want a WDW situation in which MK has 20 mil guests while the other 3 parks have half of that. I think the goal for Universal is to balance out parks in terms of attendance, which is why we have SNW moving to the new park. SNW + HP at USF will be a nightmare to have guests go to a new park, even if they get LOTR it's still not enough (gotta bring in the family market).
All 3 (eventually) dry parks can have identical attendance if:
USF: HP + Pokemon
IOA: HP + Zelda at LC
3rd Gate: LOTR + SNW MARIO... whatever other IPs they decide which won't really change the outcome
I can see them all averaging 15-20 million by 2030, considering that room capacity should be double or more than now.
The only variables that can change attendance (for better or worse) for UNI is:
Epcot: how well are the updates received?
How many value hotel rooms does Universal plan in total?
How many convention goers does Uni pull away from Disney? Do people end up going to a brand new theme park next door or waste time by traveling to Disney?
If SWL becomes a large attendance booster for DHS? (which I assume will cripple AK/Epcot, or maybe even SeaWorld attendance unto new things open)
The big one, however, is SeaWorld. Their attendance has done well recently but how close are they to selling? Part of SeaWorld's problem is Uni taking away vacation days and I assume that with a new 3rd dry park all those who had one extra day for SeaWorld will go to the new park.
MK is never really a variable only because people will visit no matter what.
All 3 (eventually) dry parks can have identical attendance if:
USF: HP + Pokemon
IOA: HP + Zelda at LC
3rd Gate: LOTR + SNW MARIO... whatever other IPs they decide which won't really change the outcome
I can see them all averaging 15-20 million by 2030, considering that room capacity should be double or more than now.
The only variables that can change attendance (for better or worse) for UNI is:
Epcot: how well are the updates received?
How many value hotel rooms does Universal plan in total?
How many convention goers does Uni pull away from Disney? Do people end up going to a brand new theme park next door or waste time by traveling to Disney?
If SWL becomes a large attendance booster for DHS? (which I assume will cripple AK/Epcot, or maybe even SeaWorld attendance unto new things open)
The big one, however, is SeaWorld. Their attendance has done well recently but how close are they to selling? Part of SeaWorld's problem is Uni taking away vacation days and I assume that with a new 3rd dry park all those who had one extra day for SeaWorld will go to the new park.
MK is never really a variable only because people will visit no matter what.