Attendance Tracker

[Mad Dog]

So,I wonder what the actual attendance drop at WDW was for this April, May, June quarter that was reported today. Disneyland had previously announced their attendance was up. The report said total domestic theme park attendance was down 4%. So that means WDW was even south of that figure. Revenue was up, but that was due to price raises in tickets, food, merch. & hotel rooms, according to their report. Profit was also up, once again due to the price raises in the above plus staffing cuts, which decreased the labor costs, according to their report. The fact that WDW kept extending special hotel discounts tells me this wasn't really a planned or desired attendance decrease. I would guess that the same is going to show up for the July, August, September quarter, since it's obvious from the line crowd levels, and the again extended special hotel discounts, that there is still an attendance problem. And remember the January, Feb., March quarter was also down for WDW. So I don't really buy the story that Disney has planned this downturn so their parks don't get over crowded. That's a ludicrous assumption. That's called "spin".

 

[Mad Dog]

They have acknowledged that their goal is to reduce people in the MK while extracting more $$$ so I guess it is working. Wonder how the word of mouth about the guest experience plays when they get home? Think it is generating new/repeat business?

But that's only MK, not reducing people in the other three theme parks & two water parks.

 

[Galaxy Defender]

I have been crunching numbers in my head today. We know domestic parks are down 4%. DL said they were up. Not slightly up, but up. Disney usually give numbers when things are really good, so it sounds in the 2-4% range. WDW does roughly twice the attendance of DL, so a two point increase in DL would offset a one point decline at WDW. This puts DL 6-8% over the domestic average of down 4%. This offsets 3-4% WDW is below that average. From this we know that WDW is down 7-8% the last quarter. Even if DL was flat that would still indicate WDW was down 6%.

Disney blamed in large part Easter falling in the previous quarter. The previous quarter WDW was down 2%. If that quarter should have been lower and this one higher then we just average. So 2%+7.5%(median) divided by two leaves an average WDW attendance decline of 4.75% over the past two quarters. That's a trend.

Hotel occupancy rates are up but WDW shifted some rooms over to DVD. Good profit move, but hides declining occupancy rate.

I feel the above numbers are solid, give or take a percent. WDW might have a good September and October, but those will be split between two quarters. Others have said holiday numbers are looking soft and hotel bookings for early next year are bad. This might really be a major shift in Orlando theme park attendance.

Please feel free to pick this apart. If you have inside numbers I would love to see them. I am curious if either UO park has exceeded attendance of AK or DHS yet.

 

[IzzyB]

Yeah, stand by now is significantly longer historically. And actually, HM & Pirates are two of the attractions that FP+ has significantly increased stand by wait times. There was a period of time before this attendance slowdown that every day, regardless of attendance, was registering an 8, 9 or 10. TP says there's less employees working the attractions now, which slows down the stand by lines. Disney also cuts staffing as they project decreased crowds, which they can project better with My Magic, and that will artificially extend stand by lines. . Also, more FP, artificially extend the standby lines. And FP plus has shown it increases stand by. And there's been a significant cut in entertainment, attractions and secondary type attractions like restaurant & shop hours. . These things cut capacity. They did a statistical analysis on each ride in every park. The only park that is somewhat close to the levels was MK. You have to really look at a lot at the stuff cut. Things like Innovations just being a shell of what is was, and significantly less entertainment more than offsets a extra theater for Soarin, that is so low capacity it barely puts a dent into anything. Frozen just replaced a ride that was there previously. And one extra track at Toy Story, which is also very low capacity, doesn't make up much for one third of the park being shut down to foot traffic, and all the closures, some major, many minor.....At first Touring plans was resisting making changes. But subscribers were really complaining that all the day's lines were off so much from projections. So they did a statistical analysis and found all those factor's had knocked the WDW crowd calendar off balance and the crowd levels were inflated. In January they are adjusting their indicators to reflect the new WDW reality.

Thanks for the explanation. I have seen the lower attendance for sure when I am there. I guess I am just lucky and have not to see the longer lines outside of Pirates and HM. I have now moved those two rides to the end of my day to avoid the longer lines. I will say even before FP+ Pirate lines seemed to be growing. I know towards the end of having good the handicapped pass we seemed to be using their alternate entrance more and more. Sounds like I am just lucky as I have seen Epcot is much easier to do now that Frozen and 3rd theater is open and DHS is easier with the third track.

 

[quinnmac000]

Expect a substantially large attendance bump for Universal in attendance September 1-September 5 of about 20,000 people.

 

[Mad Dog]

I have been crunching numbers in my head today. We know domestic parks are down 4%. DL said they were up. Not slightly up, but up. Disney usually give numbers when things are really good, so it sounds in the 2-4% range. WDW does roughly twice the attendance of DL, so a two point increase in DL would offset a one point decline at WDW. This puts DL 6-8% over the domestic average of down 4%. This offsets 3-4% WDW is below that average. From this we know that WDW is down 7-8% the last quarter. Even if DL was flat that would still indicate WDW was down 6%.

Disney blamed in large part Easter falling in the previous quarter. The previous quarter WDW was down 2%. If that quarter should have been lower and this one higher then we just average. So 2%+7.5%(median) divided by two leaves an average WDW attendance decline of 4.75% over the past two quarters. That's a trend.

Hotel occupancy rates are up but WDW shifted some rooms over to DVD. Good profit move, but hides declining occupancy rate.

I feel the above numbers are solid, give or take a percent. WDW might have a good September and October, but those will be split between two quarters. Others have said holiday numbers are looking soft and hotel bookings for early next year are bad. This might really be a major shift in Orlando theme park attendance.

Please feel free to pick this apart. If you have inside numbers I would love to see them. I am curious if either UO park has exceeded attendance of AK or DHS yet.

Yeh, I think those numbers are probably pretty close to reality. That's apx. what I was thinking also. And, as I said in a previous post, I don't buy Disney's BS spin at all. If that spin was true Disney Resort would be down too. Plus that's a poor business plan if true. And, even by Disney's own admission, the revenue gain is due to price increases in admission, merchandise, rooms, and labor cost decreases due to staff lay offs. Rooms probably filled up to a degree for, as you said, rooms out of service due to DVC conversion, and the fact they kept running discount specials to get people in those on site hotel rooms.................Insiders here have continuously stated that TEA reports overstate DHS and AK attendance, and that both IOA and Studios have higher attendance than DHS.

 

[Mad Dog]

Expect a substantially large attendance bump for Universal in attendance September 1-September 5 of about 20,000 people.

Convention ?

 

[quinnmac000]

Convention ?

Not my scene but some radio host convention with all attendees getting passes to Universal included with their packages for attending. Over the years averages around 18,000 to 25,000 people.

 

[Mad Dog]

Not my scene but some radio host convention with all attendees getting passes to Universal included with their packages for attending. Over the years averages around 18,000 to 25,000 people.

Thanks for the information. Good to know. :thumbsup:

 

[MillenniumDragons]

I wonder how the crowds will be next Monday. All the CF schools will be back in session. If it's anything like Mother's Day 2011, that would be great. Mother's Day '11, good times at IOA.

 

[IzzyB]

I believe Disney wanted lower attendance, but I don't buy for a minute they wanted THIS much lower attendance. They wanted to move AP holders and 1 day ticket people to off season to spread out crowds. But they wanted package holders that pay for hotels to still come. The fact that hotel capacity was not maxed out is NOT a good thing. That has nothing to do with variable pricing since that didn't effect package holders.

 

[GAcoaster]

I don't think they really wanted LOWER attendance overall. They really want lower attendance during peak times (when they would have to turn people away due to capacity), and higher attendance for the slower times. They'd love to have 50,00o in Magic Kingdom each day if they could rather than 75,000 one day and 25,000 the next.

 

[Parkscope Joe]

Walt Disney World's pants have been on fire for years when it comes to attendance, now they can't hide it and are trying to mitigate the damage. Additionally prices go up higher than guest spending does for years.

Both UOR parks have exceeded DAK and DHS attendance.

 

[Mad Dog]

I believe Disney wanted lower attendance, but I don't buy for a minute they wanted THIS much lower attendance. They wanted to move AP holders and 1 day ticket people to off season to spread out crowds. But they wanted package holders that pay for hotels to still come. The fact that hotel capacity was not maxed out is NOT a good thing. That has nothing to do with variable pricing since that didn't effect package holders.

One proof of not as many people showing up as they wanted is that they lifted almost every single cast member blackout date this summer. If there's too many people in the parks, you're going to limit CM's in the parks, like they did in the past.

 

[Teebin]

I wonder if everyone is just waiting for pandora and star wars to open. Universal ran into a similar problem with Potter post 2007 after all.

 

[GAcoaster]

I think more are waiting for Star Wars Land (which is YEARS away...)

 

[Galaxy Defender]

I wonder if everyone is just waiting for pandora and star wars to open. Universal ran into a similar problem with Potter post 2007 after all.

If guests are waiting on Star Wars then WDW has a huge problem.

Walt Disney World's pants have been on fire for years when it comes to attendance, now they can't hide it and are trying to mitigate the damage. Additionally prices go up higher than guest spending does for years.

Both UOR parks have exceeded DAK and DHS attendance.

Good to know. WDW is sacrificing attendance in the name of profits. At some point this will have to change. The stockholders will not be happy.

 

[bob albert]

Disney can change prices all they want but it can only shift so much demand. Peak season is peak season because kids are off. A lot of people are just not going to go if it gets too expensive. They aren't just going to wait for the value period.

 

[Galaxy Defender]

Disney can change prices all they want but it can only shift so much demand. Peak season is peak season because kids are off. A lot of people are just not going to go if it gets too expensive. They aren't just going to wait for the value period.

Most people would love to go in the value season. Most don't because they can't. You are absolutely right that prices can't change that much.

 

[GAcoaster]

I've seen more and more people who take their kids out of school just to do Disney in the off season.