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Attendance Tracker

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The Disney quarterly conference call is less than 48 hours away. Sea World and WDW were both down 2% first quarter. Sea World Orlando was likely down 10-15% second quarter but was up 4% in July with the opening of Mako.

Anyone care to make their prediction for overall Walt Disney World attendance in the second quarter? Personally, I'm going for a 5% decline.
 
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They won't break it out. They'll give general trends based on FL and CA together, but they usually won't disclose specifics.
 
know some people who work at Epcot and they said it was the slowest this year that Epcot has been in a long time seeing less the 30k people even with frozen and sorin
The big reason given for the third screen on Soarin was to handle the expected crowds from the opening of Frozen. Yet crowds went down. This is a bad year for WDW.
 
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I'm surprised Disney hasn't lifted the seasonal passholder blackout dates. They've done so in the past in seemingly less dire instances.
 
TP numbers would actually fail the other way with Epcot. Because the lines for Soarin would go down even though the crowd levels are the same. Same with Toy Story. Also, since Frozen was added, it would reduce the number of people getting fast passes for other top tier rides, which would lower those lines. So again, TP numbers would be lower for Epcot even if the attendance was the same from last year to this year. The same way the numbers fail the other way when park hours are reduced because capacity is reduced and therefore lines would be longer since the same amount of people are trying to ride the same number of rides in a smaller window of hours.
 
TP numbers would actually fail the other way with Epcot. Because the lines for Soarin would go down even though the crowd levels are the same. Same with Toy Story. Also, since Frozen was added, it would reduce the number of people getting fast passes for other top tier rides, which would lower those lines. So again, TP numbers would be lower for Epcot even if the attendance was the same from last year to this year. The same way the numbers fail the other way when park hours are reduced because capacity is reduced and therefore lines would be longer since the same amount of people are trying to ride the same number of rides in a smaller window of hours.
Actually, that's not true according to TP's recent commentary on the subject. Even taking into play the circumstances you've pointed out, WDW's crowd level numbers are inflated according to past history, that's why TP is adjusting the rating scale for WDW in Jan. 2017. They went through all of those circumstances you mentioned, in their analysis, and concluded that due to " staffing cutbacks on attractions", "Fastpass plus", and "closing of attractions and entertainment", that their crowd levels are inflated. So actually those 3, 4, & 5's will be even lower once they're adjusted. They did say that Disney Resort & Universal Crowd levels do not need adjusted.
 
Actually, that's not true according to TP's recent commentary on the subject. Even taking into play the circumstances you've pointed out, WDW's crowd level numbers are inflated according to past history, that's why TP is adjusting the rating scale for WDW in Jan. 2017. They went through all of those circumstances you mentioned, in their analysis, and concluded that due to " staffing cutbacks on attractions", "Fastpass plus", and "closing of attractions and entertainment", that their crowd levels are inflated. So actually those 3, 4, & 5's will be even lower once they're adjusted. They did say that Disney Resort & Universal Crowd levels do not need adjusted.

This is interesting to me and maybe it is because I don't understand what TP does. But unless capacity for the regular line drops I am not sure what staffing changes would make lines longer. I haven't noticed any delays in loading. It seems just as fast/slow before based on the ride. Fast pass for the majority of rides existed long before FP+. HM and Pirates are the only ones I know that got it added to that effect wait times. Maybe the new system where you get more than 3? Or maybe 3 at a time mean more rides sell out? More fast passes are used because it is a more simple system? I guess because there are too many factors that I don't understand or know that is causing this issue.

I personally have not seen a huge difference outside of HM and Pirates so maybe that is where I am coming from.
 
This is interesting to me and maybe it is because I don't understand what TP does. But unless capacity for the regular line drops I am not sure what staffing changes would make lines longer. I haven't noticed any delays in loading. It seems just as fast/slow before based on the ride. Fast pass for the majority of rides existed long before FP+. HM and Pirates are the only ones I know that got it added to that effect wait times. Maybe the new system where you get more than 3? Or maybe 3 at a time mean more rides sell out? More fast passes are used because it is a more simple system? I guess because there are too many factors that I don't understand or know that is causing this issue.

I personally have not seen a huge difference outside of HM and Pirates so maybe that is where I am coming from.
Yeah, stand by now is significantly longer historically. And actually, HM & Pirates are two of the attractions that FP+ has significantly increased stand by wait times. There was a period of time before this attendance slowdown that every day, regardless of attendance, was registering an 8, 9 or 10. TP says there's less employees working the attractions now, which slows down the stand by lines. Disney also cuts staffing as they project decreased crowds, which they can project better with My Magic, and that will artificially extend stand by lines. . Also, more FP, artificially extend the standby lines. And FP plus has shown it increases stand by. And there's been a significant cut in entertainment, attractions and secondary type attractions like restaurant & shop hours. . These things cut capacity. They did a statistical analysis on each ride in every park. The only park that is somewhat close to the levels was MK. You have to really look at a lot at the stuff cut. Things like Innovations just being a shell of what is was, and significantly less entertainment more than offsets a extra theater for Soarin, that is so low capacity it barely puts a dent into anything. Frozen just replaced a ride that was there previously. And one extra track at Toy Story, which is also very low capacity, doesn't make up much for one third of the park being shut down to foot traffic, and all the closures, some major, many minor.....At first Touring plans was resisting making changes. But subscribers were really complaining that all the day's lines were off so much from projections. So they did a statistical analysis and found all those factor's had knocked the WDW crowd calendar off balance and the crowd levels were inflated. In January they are adjusting their indicators to reflect the new WDW reality.
 
Yeah, stand by now is significantly longer historically. And actually, HM & Pirates are two of the attractions that FP+ has significantly increased stand by wait times. There was a period of time before this attendance slowdown that every day, regardless of attendance, was registering an 8, 9 or 10. TP says there's less employees working the attractions now, which slows down the stand by lines. Disney also cuts staffing as they project decreased crowds, which they can project better with My Magic, and that will artificially extend stand by lines. . Also, more FP, artificially extend the standby lines. And FP plus has shown it increases stand by. And there's been a significant cut in entertainment, attractions and secondary type attractions like restaurant & shop hours. . These things cut capacity. They did a statistical analysis on each ride in every park. The only park that is somewhat close to the levels was MK. You have to really look at a lot at the stuff cut. Things like Innovations just being a shell of what is was, and significantly less entertainment more than offsets a extra theater for Soarin, that is so low capacity it barely puts a dent into anything. Frozen just replaced a ride that was there previously. And one extra track at Toy Story, which is also very low capacity, doesn't make up much for one third of the park being shut down to foot traffic, and all the closures, some major, many minor.....At first Touring plans was resisting making changes. But subscribers were really complaining that all the day's lines were off so much from projections. So they did a statistical analysis and found all those factor's had knocked the WDW crowd calendar off balance and the crowd levels were inflated. In January they are adjusting their indicators to reflect the new WDW reality.
This is an excellent explanation. :thumbsup::cheers:

And civil too. :)
 
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Orlando Sentinel is reporting WDW has announced hotel discount rates for Nov/Dec. What's is interesting is the dates. They start from Nov 6 to Dec 23 with some blackout dates. They go all the way to Dec 23rd! Here is a telling quote from a travel agent:

"I was surprised by seeing dates that close to Christmas, for sure, because that is usually one of their peak, more expensive seasons," said Stephen Juliano, a travel agent who specializes in Disney trips. "I was happy to see them. It means some families I was working with who were previously not able to book are now looking at a trip closer to Christmastime."


Orlando Sentinel
 
Anyone have wait times or anecdotal stories about Universal's crowds today? Magic Kingdom was CRAZY BUSY for some reason today. Maybe because school starts tomorrow?
 
Attendance down, room nights up, guest spending up according to Q3 Earnings calls.

As long as guest spending is up, I'd think Disney doesn't care much about decreased attendance.
 
Attendance down, room nights up, guest spending up according to Q3 Earnings calls.

As long as guest spending is up, I'd think Disney doesn't care much about decreased attendance.

They have acknowledged that their goal is to reduce people in the MK while extracting more $$$ so I guess it is working. Wonder how the word of mouth about the guest experience plays when they get home? Think it is generating new/repeat business?
 
They have acknowledged that their goal is to reduce people in the MK while extracting more $$$ so I guess it is working. Wonder how the word of mouth about the guest experience plays when they get home? Think it is generating new/repeat business?
Depends. I think we're at the point right now though where if Disney or Uni raise prices, they're taking a lot more of a risk than before.

I do think that if a family simply goes to Disney, they'll have a great time and there will be good word of mouth. However, I think that if a familt goes to both Disney AND Universal, Disney may get good word, but Universal will likely get GREAT word.

Realistically though, if a family is traveling from across the country or across the world to go to Orlando for theme parks, the reality is they are very likely to go WDW at some point. There's really no escaping that.