Attendance Tracker

[Mad Dog]

The non Florida Sea World parks are doing OK. My estimate for the Florida ones is down 10-15%. Sea World has said Brazilians make up 10% of their attendance, so a 40% drop in them would mean a 4% drop in overall attendance. Most of the rest of the drop is Florida specific.

Six Flags did well last quarter, so it looks like the attendance decline is mainly in Florida. Insiders say UO was down early summer but has rebounded. Sea World was up 4% in July. This just leaves WDW.

Disneyland divorced WDW in large part to avoid their problems. WDW was already down 2% the previous quarter. Big question now is whether they have hit bottom and are coming back up or if this is part of a longer decline. With UO growing larger and better I can easily see the latter being true.

Of course, WDW could be a big opening or two away from growing again, but I doubt it. One big tell will be if WDW starts to sacrifice profits for attendance. Quarterly conference call is August 9th.

I think WDW will do well in their first quarter (which for them is Oct. - Dec.). That's trending to be their new busiest time of the year. But they've seemed soft again this past week or so, so this quarter (their fourth) could be dicey. And, a lot of school systems start really early this year. We won't know those results until November. The report coming out real soon (their third quarter) April-June) should be interesting.......January through March 2017 will be a good indicator of what direction they are going in. Avatar, opening summer or fall next year, should help their attendance a bit, but I don't see it being a huge generator like Potter, Star wars or Carsland.

 

[Galaxy Defender]

I think WDW will do well in their first quarter (which for them is Oct. - Dec.). That's trending to be their new busiest time of the year. But they've seemed soft again this past week or so, so this quarter (their fourth) could be dicey. And, a lot of school systems start really early this year. We won't know those results until November. The report coming out real soon (their third quarter) April-June) should be interesting.......January through March 2017 will be a good indicator of what direction they are going in. Avatar, opening summer or fall next year, should help their attendance a bit, but I don't see it being a huge generator like Potter, Star wars or Carsland.

I do believe UO will keep growing in Orlando market share.

 

[Mad Dog]

I do believe UO will keep growing in Orlando market share.

I 100% agree with you on that. The growth will be at the expense of Sea World and a little of Disney, plus Universal will continue to generate general Orlando tourism increases.

 

[Galaxy Defender]

More proof attendance decline is mainly in Orlando. Cedar Fair reported 2% attendance growth in the second quarter.

Sandusky Register:
Cedar Fair reports record revenue

 

[Mad Dog]

I just reviewed Touring Plans Thurs. crowd levels at WDW . 3's, 4's and 5's....That's unheard of for early August. Highly unusual.

 

[Nick]

I just reviewed Touring Plans Thurs. crowd levels at WDW . 3's, 4's and 5's....That's unheard of for early August. Highly unusual.

Kids did go back to school far earlier than usual for much of the south, but yeah, still very light.

 

[Galaxy Defender]

I just reviewed Touring Plans Thurs. crowd levels at WDW . 3's, 4's and 5's....That's unheard of for early August. Highly unusual.

TP has UO at 9s through the 18th

 

[GAcoaster]

Disney seems to be hit or miss with one day being HUGE crowds at MK and the next being a very light crowd. There doesn't seem to be any rhyme or reason or pattern to it either.

I have noticed that lately seeing the wait time on here for Universal's big rides, it looks like the busiest days at Uni are generally the slowest t MK and vice versa. I can't imagine that's really the case that people generally choose one or the other that way, but it almost looks like it anecdotally.

 

[Mad Dog]

Disney seems to be hit or miss with one day being HUGE crowds at MK and the next being a very light crowd. There doesn't seem to be any rhyme or reason or pattern to it either.

I have noticed that lately seeing the wait time on here for Universal's big rides, it looks like the busiest days at Uni are generally the slowest t MK and vice versa. I can't imagine that's really the case that people generally choose one or the other that way, but it almost looks like it anecdotally.

Yeah, I've kind of noticed that also. One thing though, is at this point in time, TP still has the crowd formula for WDW that's inflating crowd levels . Their new system, doesn't take effect until Jan. , so the reported crowd levels are probably somewhat higher than the actual attendance levels that they would have indicated in previous years (Keeping in mind that line levels are not necessarily accurate indicators of attendance). Yes, you may be on to something. If so, it would be interesting to figure out what it is...Good point.

 

[Mad Dog]

Just checked Touring Plans for Friday's WDW crowd levels. Once again 3, 4, 5's in all four parks. For August 5th, this is crazy low crowd level numbers.

 

[deathcab4cutie]

think its just people are waiting for next year when you have the big rides opening.just think if you didn't go this year and waited for next year you would have new hulk Kong,fallon just at universal. and at Disney you would have the new sorin,frozen and avatar land as well as part of toy story land.

 

[Mad Dog]

think its just people are waiting for next year when you have the big rides opening.just think if you didn't go this year and waited for next year you would have new hulk Kong,fallon just at universal. and at Disney you would have the new sorin,frozen and avatar land as well as part of toy story land.

Universal seems to be OK though.

 

[Scott W.]

think its just people are waiting for next year when you have the big rides opening.just think if you didn't go this year and waited for next year you would have new hulk Kong,fallon just at universal. and at Disney you would have the new sorin,frozen and avatar land as well as part of toy story land.

Avatar and TSL next year?

 

[UAN17]

Some insane discounts in the UK for 2017 which suggests to me demand isn't there. The discounts will probably tempt people.

I looked for 3 weeks in May/June 2017 it came out at the equivalent of $1080 including flights, hotels and transfers with a very reputable travel agent. Staying on international drive. For comparison a few months ago it was $1450.

 

[Mad Dog]

Saturday at WDW. Real slow level lines. DHS came in at a Level 2 on TP. Never seen that on an early August day. Park level was a 4.

 

[GAcoaster]

Yeah, MK looks like it will be pretty dead (as MK gets) today.

 

[Mad Dog]

Yeah, MK looks like it will be pretty dead (as MK gets) today.

Yeah, MK's been 4's and 5's just about all week. Like Wow. Usually when the other three are low, often MK is still packed. Not this week though.

 

[GAcoaster]

Yeah, MK's been 4's and 5's just about all week. Like Wow. Usually when the other three are low, often MK is still packed. Not this week though.

I believe Orange County Schools go back tomorrow (or sometime this week) so the locals aren't here. They're all out shopping for the tax free holiday weekend for school clothes and supplies.

 

[Galaxy Defender]

I believe Orange County Schools go back tomorrow (or sometime this week) so the locals aren't here. They're all out shopping for the tax free holiday weekend for school clothes and supplies.

And at Universal, where at least a half-dozen rides currently have wait times at least 60 minutes.

 

[quinnmac000]

This weekend was a huge e-sports competition at the Royal Pacific which potentially inflated Universal's wait times with it being on Universal property I doubt most of the gamers went to Disney.