Attendance Tracker

[SeventyOne]

Here is a detailed analysis of attendance at WDW using wait times from the Touring Plans blog. General conclusion was attendance was down at all parks except MK, which was up.

If UO was to ever be more popular than WDW as a whole I would expect to see a similar pattern. Guests would still go to MK but skip the rest to do the UO parks. Without MK to carry them I think UO parks would now have better attendance than the other three WDW parks.

Summer Crowd and Wait Time Trends at Disney World - TouringPlans.com Blog | TouringPlans.com Blog

I do wonder if these changes take into account the effect of FP+ artificially extending wait times. Sure it's been around awhile, but I suspect more guests used it this year than last year, as awareness grows.

I am starting to think pricing and US guests was more of a factor than I initially suspected. Crowds have bounced back some the last two weeks of July--at least around town and in the parks, signature dining still struggling even more than usual. A lot of guests seemed to deliberately avoid Fourth of July weeks.

 

[SeventyOne]

The next Orlando theme park earnings call is Sea World. It will be Thursday, August 4th at 9am EST. Since they are just theme parks it will have plenty of good information. I am anxious to compare their numbers to WDW. The link will take you to the Sea World page.

http://www.seaworldinvestors.com/ev...inancial-Results-Conference-Call/default.aspx

AP to Sea World, have friends that work there, no love for PETA--still, this isn't going to be pretty. Park being run like there's a fire sale, Mako times seem to top out at 20 minutes, reduced to offering free beer to APs again.

 

[IzzyB]

AP to Sea World, have friends that work there, no love for PETA--still, this isn't going to be pretty. Park being run like there's a fire sale, Mako times seem to top out at 20 minutes, reduced to offering free beer to APs again.

I really feel bad for Sea World. I feel like in the last 6 months they have really done everything right and they just can't catch a break.

And I also feel Mako really is awesome and really became the top new attraction for 2016 for locals. So it sucks that everything else has gone wrong for them.

 

[Galaxy Defender]

I do wonder if these changes take into account the effect of FP+ artificially extending wait times. Sure it's been around awhile, but I suspect more guests used it this year than last year, as awareness grows.

I am starting to think pricing and US guests was more of a factor than I initially suspected. Crowds have bounced back some the last two weeks of July--at least around town and in the parks, signature dining still struggling even more than usual. A lot of guests seemed to deliberately avoid Fourth of July weeks.

I'm waiting for the other earnings numbers before drawing any big conclusions.

What I have noticed is what I have nicknamed the Disney Industrial Complex. There are so many websites, manufacturers and businesses involved in the business of Disney. If Disney attendance went on a downward trend it would hurt them. If Disney as a desired brand went down it would hurt them. If Disney related items collectibility went down it would hurt them.

It ends up being a case of The Emperor's New Clothes. No one in the Industrial Complex wants to even admit there is a problem for fear of aggravating the problem. Everyone turns a blind eye.

Not only have parks gone downhill, so has the merchandising. I don't want a Disney Parks item, I want WDW. Tons of gift shops and they carry pretty much the same thing. Limited edition merchandise left and right. And special merchandising events? Really?

Disney, like Coke and the Olympics, has seen their names and images become brands unto themselves. Coke seems to be the only one keeping the tarnish off, and even they are seeing sales slippage on their core products.

The end point is that so many have a vested interest in Disney and Disney Parks they aren't questioning the practices and performance. Oddly enough, the only ones who can do so right now with any effectiveness is Wall Street. We will see their reaction next week. Unless, the film division makes so much money it covers up the rest.

I'm just frustrated that Disney has allowed WDW to go so far downhill. Even all the projects going on right now are just addressing specific areas instead of the top to bottom work needed. Sigh.

 

[SeventyOne]

I really feel bad for Sea World. I feel like in the last 6 months they have really done everything right and they just can't catch a break.

And I also feel Mako really is awesome and really became the top new attraction for 2016 for locals. So it sucks that everything else has gone wrong for them.

I think they sank all their money into Mako (and even then, couldn't give Shark Encounter a much needed refurb at the same time?). In addition to nickle and diming every 5 feet, I hear stories about divers being cut from Blue Horizons because SW won't pay to fix a simple platform, see only one intermittent pearl diver, notice SkyTower/SandBar have been shuttered over a month now. Mako area looks amazing, but rest of park falling apart.

 

[SeventyOne]

What I have noticed is what I have nicknamed the Disney Industrial Complex.

^ This is brilliant (and true). If you make it to HHN, I owe you a beer at Finns.

 

[IzzyB]

I think they sank all their money into Mako (and even then, couldn't give Shark Encounter a much needed refurb at the same time?). In addition to nickle and diming every 5 feet, I hear stories about divers being cut from Blue Horizons because SW won't pay to fix a simple platform, see only one intermittent pearl diver, notice SkyTower/SandBar have been shuttered over a month now. Mako area looks amazing, but rest of park falling apart.

Even when the Dolphin show was being refurbished all the "divers" were there. They just did other stuff. I was at two modified shows and I swear the last one I was at the show was all normal again. Maybe I am wrong with the last being normal.

The pearl diving thing is done when people buy stuff. I don't think people buy those things that often anymore. I never see customers over there.

The skytower I had not noticed, the bar I never go to. It is so tucked back there.

 

[Nick]

With how relatively cheap I assume Mako cost, i'm surprised that that blew their whole budget.

 

[Mad Dog]

I do wonder if these changes take into account the effect of FP+ artificially extending wait times. Sure it's been around awhile, but I suspect more guests used it this year than last year, as awareness grows.

I am starting to think pricing and US guests was more of a factor than I initially suspected. Crowds have bounced back some the last two weeks of July--at least around town and in the parks, signature dining still struggling even more than usual. A lot of guests seemed to deliberately avoid Fourth of July weeks.

Yeah, they've talked about that on the past on TP and basically said, that yes, it has been a factor in extending line time. They had a few articles on that about six months ago when customers on the site were complaining about long high level lines where the TP crowd calendar was saying the lines would be low or moderate. . That's one reason that TP was showing high level crowd levels at WDW nearly every day, even though actual attendance didn't reflect those high levels. WDW was showing 9's and 10's even during the off season. So, even now, because of the My magic, staffing cuts, and less attractions, WDW levels on TP are reflecting higher crowds than are actually there. So when there's days like this Sat. & Sunday where TP is showing low lines occured, the actual attendance must be pretty bad for real. These are some of the reasons TP is revamping their WDW crowd level indicators for 2017. They said Universal & Disneyland are basically OK though.

 

[IzzyB]

Yeah, they've talked about that on the past on TP and basically said, that yes, it has been a factor in extending line time. They had a few articles on that about six months ago when customers on the site were complaining about long high level lines where the TP crowd calendar was saying the lines would be low or moderate. . That's one reason that TP was showing high level crowd levels at WDW nearly every day, even though actual attendance didn't reflect those high levels. WDW was showing 9's and 10's even during the off season. So, even now, because of the My magic, staffing cuts, and less attractions, WDW levels on TP are reflecting higher crowds than are actually there. So when there's days like this Sat. & Sunday where TP is showing low lines occured, the actual attendance must be pretty bad for real. These are some of the reasons TP is revamping their WDW crowd level indicators for 2017. They said Universal & Disneyland are basically OK though.

Which is really odd to me. I haven't seen these high wait times in the off season that TP would make things a 9 or 10. We were there in both April and May and both times the lines were pretty low. Nowhere near a 9. I would say 5 at best. The beginning of June was pretty high at MK though. Epcot was normal and not high.

Maybe it is because I know which ones to get fast passes for and don't wait in high lines? I also know when to go to avoid the crowds during the day?

 

[Mad Dog]

Which is really odd to me. I haven't seen these high wait times in the off season that TP would make things a 9 or 10. We were there in both April and May and both times the lines were pretty low. Nowhere near a 9. I would say 5 at best. The beginning of June was pretty high at MK though. Epcot was normal and not high.

Maybe it is because I know which ones to get fast passes for and don't wait in high lines? I also know when to go to avoid the crowds during the day?

They were coming in at 8, 9 & 10 on the TP scale on just about every day for all 4 parks.

 

[Parkscope Joe]

The end point is that so many have a vested interest in Disney and Disney Parks they aren't questioning the practices and performance. Oddly enough, the only ones who can do so right now with any effectiveness is Wall Street. We will see their reaction next week. Unless, the film division makes so much money it covers up the rest.

I'm just frustrated that Disney has allowed WDW to go so far downhill. Even all the projects going on right now are just addressing specific areas instead of the top to bottom work needed. Sigh.

Hey I like to think we (OU and Parkscope) are pointing out the new clothes while I keep seeing those who think this ToT bar would have been highly immersive and unique or DHS is a great park because people buy park hoppers and they really don't care.

 

[Galaxy Defender]

Hey I like to think we (OU and Parkscope) are pointing out the new clothes while I keep seeing those who think this ToT bar would have been highly immersive and unique or DHS is a great park because people buy park hoppers and they really don't care.

Yes. You are pointing out the new clothes. But this is not a rah rah Disney Industrial Complex type site I was referring to.

 

[Parkscope Joe]

They were coming in at 8, 9 & 10 on the TP scale on just about every day for all 4 parks.

I know many people here know this but I want to remind people the TP ratings are for the feel of business of a park, not attendance. Example: Epcot is rated higher during F&W because of the crowds in the walkways and the booths, not because there is a significantly larger crowd. So it's possible for attendance to be up and the crowd level to drop due to capacity increases at attractions and walkways. Also attendance can be down while crowd levels go up as attraction capacity and walkway capacity is cut.

 

[Mad Dog]

I know many people here know this but I want to remind people the TP ratings are for the feel of business of a park, not attendance. Example: Epcot is rated higher during F&W because of the crowds in the walkways and the booths, not because there is a significantly larger crowd. So it's possible for attendance to be up and the crowd level to drop due to capacity increases at attractions and walkways. Also attendance can be down while crowd levels go up as attraction capacity and walkway capacity is cut.

Yes, you are correct....The point I've been making is that the WDW parks have gotten so out of whack for many of the above reasons that TP & I talked about in those other posts, the differentiation in the TP crowd levels (read lines), have blurred. Instead of a balance between low lines, moderate lines and busy lines (1 through 10 scale) which had worked well for TP for a number of years, the TP crowd levels (read lines) had gotten to the point where almost all days were coming in as high moderate to high crowds, which kind of makes a crowd level calendar almost useless. If one would look at all those 8, 9, 10 crowd levels, you would think attendance was booming every day, which it wasn't.

 

[Parkscope Joe]

Yes, you are correct....The point I've making is that the WDW parks have gotten so out of whack for many of the above reasons that TP & I talked about in those other posts, the differentiation in the TP crowd levels (read lines), have blurred. Instead of a balance between low lines, moderate lines and busy lines (1 through 10 scale) which had worked well for TP for a number of years, the TP crowd levels (read lines) had gotten to the point where almost all days were coming in as high moderate to high crowds, which kind of makes a crowd level calendar almost useless. If one would look at all those 8, 9, 10 crowd levels, you would think attendance was booming every day, which it wasn't.

Got it and it makes sense. I should let the coffee hit first before I respond.

 

[JungleSkip]

I really feel bad for Sea World. I feel like in the last 6 months they have really done everything right and they just can't catch a break.

And I also feel Mako really is awesome and really became the top new attraction for 2016 for locals. So it sucks that everything else has gone wrong for them.

SeaWorld is and was ill equipped to capitalize on the new paradigm of theme parks. They have relatively few bankable IPs, and in Orlando IP is king. It's just generally not a coaster town.

 

[Galaxy Defender]

Yes, you are correct....The point I've been making is that the WDW parks have gotten so out of whack for many of the above reasons that TP & I talked about in those other posts, the differentiation in the TP crowd levels (read lines), have blurred. Instead of a balance between low lines, moderate lines and busy lines (1 through 10 scale) which had worked well for TP for a number of years, the TP crowd levels (read lines) had gotten to the point where almost all days were coming in as high moderate to high crowds, which kind of makes a crowd level calendar almost useless. If one would look at all those 8, 9, 10 crowd levels, you would think attendance was booming every day, which it wasn't.

My brother has a simple way of determining crowds at Universal. He looks at the express pass page and how much the express pass costs when he wants to go. The cheaper the pass the lower the crowds.

 

[Mad Dog]

SeaWorld is and was ill equipped to capitalize on the new paradigm of theme parks. They have relatively few bankable IPs, and in Orlando IP is king. It's just generally not a coaster town.

Yes. A lot of tourists like me from the northeast & midwest have a huge array of great coasters nearby in our many regional parks that are within easy driving distance. There are way more coasters in some individual parks alone than all of Orlando offers. I go to Orlando for theme parks , not coaster parks. I would think the coasters would attract locals, but they would not be a deciding factor for a tourist. They're only dressing on the cake, not the cake, for most tourists.

 

[Mad Dog]

My brother has a simple way of determining crowds at Universal. He looks at the express pass page and how much the express pass costs when he wants to go. The cheaper the pass the lower the crowds.

Yep, Universal knows better than anyone what size crowd they should expect. I think that's what Dan Hatfield was basically basing his crowd levels on when he originally started OI.