Attendance Tracker

[Galaxy Defender]

Orlando Sentinel is reporting that so far the zika virus has not affected Central Florida tourism.

Florida's tourism industry not yet hit with Zika scare - Orlando Sentinel

 

[amityboattours]

Orlando Sentinel is reporting that so far the zika virus has not affected Central Florida tourism.

Florida's tourism industry not yet hit with Zika scare - Orlando Sentinel

With the average (high) cost of a Florida vacation, it will be genuinely interesting to see if people are willing to put their (and their unborn children's) health ahead of their financial investment if Zika continues to spread. This will particularly depend on how travel insurance companies begin to handle cancellation or date transfer requests moving forward, i feel.

 

[Teebin]

Orlando Sentinel is reporting that so far the zika virus has not affected Central Florida tourism.

Florida's tourism industry not yet hit with Zika scare - Orlando Sentinel

Good article. *sigh*

 

[Mad Dog]

Keeping in mind that posted line times are not necessarily a complete indication of a parks attendance, the posted line times at the Disney parks, most especially Epcot, AK and DHS have been at low moderate crowd levels (using the TP scale) 4 of the last 6 days. The 3, 4, 5s and 6's popping up are more like slow Jan./Feb. days than first week in August. (And TP has not yet adjusted their crowd level charts. That happens in Jan. 2017. So these are actually the inflated numbers, that make it all the worst) ...In contrast, Universal has been fairly typical August levels.

 

[Disneyhead]

I think we'll see:

IOA-+4%
USF-+2%
DAK-+2%
MK- Flat
Epcot--3%
DHS--5%
SeaWorld--5%

 

[Galaxy Defender]

Sea World reported a 7.6 percent drop in attendance, mainly due to its Florida parks.

Attendance is down at SeaWorld parks, but Florida locations hit hardest. | SanDiegoUnionTribune.com

SeaWorld Entertainment reports second-quarter drop in attendance - Orlando Sentinel

 

[Mad Dog]

Sea World reported a 7.6 percent drop in attendance, mainly due to its Florida parks.

Attendance is down at SeaWorld parks, but Florida locations hit hardest. | SanDiegoUnionTribune.com

SeaWorld Entertainment reports second-quarter drop in attendance - Orlando Sentinel

It will be interesting to see the third quarter report, since that will include the prime summer months of July and the first half of August. Sea World Orlando is at risk, especially since they receive one third of their visitors from foreign nations, so they are very dependent on the soft South American economies, a Brexit Great Britain, etc. . And lets harken back to that report we had earlier on this thread from the Brazilian tour group operator who said tours are down drastically. That, coupled with all of Sea World's inherent problems, doesn't bode well for their future success. Not looking good for them at all...Those are really bad numbers for the company as a whole, and I would guess the Sea World Orlando drop is considerably above that company wide -7.6 figure, since they were singled out in the report.

 

[UAN17]

Seaworld announced a 4% attendance increase in across their parks for July Year on Year, outside the quarter 2 posting, so reasons for optimism, which included an increase (unspecified in size) in Florida.

Key part - Latin Attendance down 40% year to date, which equates to 235,000 guests at Florida.

 

[Parkscope Joe]

I think we'll see:

IOA-+4%
USF-+2%
DAK-+2%
MK- Flat
Epcot--3%
DHS--5%
SeaWorld--5%

Accounting for the TEA Disney bias or without?

 

[Disneyhead]

Accounting for the TEA Disney bias or without?

TEA will claim Disney is >+4%

 

[Mad Dog]

Accounting for the TEA Disney bias or without?

TEA future bias report: "Disney zooms ahead in Orlando with a 10% increase in all parks. DHS, the park with no rides, continues to out perform Universal Studios with 2 million more visitors a year. The fantabulous night time "Jungle Book Show" pushes Animal Kingdom 3 million a year in front of IOA. Disney just rolls on. ".......... Pretend report, but probably along the lines of next years TEA Disney propaganda report.

 

[Scott W.]

With the average (high) cost of a Florida vacation, it will be genuinely interesting to see if people are willing to put their (and their unborn children's) health ahead of their financial investment if Zika continues to spread. This will particularly depend on how travel insurance companies begin to handle cancellation or date transfer requests moving forward, i feel.

If I was a pregnant woman travelling from the UK, I think Florida is the last place I'd want to visit any way. All the fun rides wouldn't be advised, you'd be paying a small fortune to just walk about the parks, mix that with the hormones and crazy heat and humidity. No thank you.

 

[Teebin]

If I was a pregnant woman travelling from the UK, I think Florida is the last place I'd want to visit any way. All the fun rides wouldn't be advised, you'd be paying a small fortune to just walk about the parks, mix that with the hormones and crazy heat and humidity. No thank you.

Ironically, probably the only safe place for pregnant women would be Death Valley, California.

 

[amityboattours]

If I was a pregnant woman travelling from the UK, I think Florida is the last place I'd want to visit any way. All the fun rides wouldn't be advised, you'd be paying a small fortune to just walk about the parks, mix that with the hormones and crazy heat and humidity. No thank you.

I do agree, but most trips abroad are planned months in advance and pregnancies are a lottery. I know lots of folks who've still taken vacations that were pre-booked, almost as a 'last hurrah' before life changes forever.
I struggle carrying just my beer belly around in the Florida heat!

 

[Scott W.]

I do agree, but most trips abroad are planned months in advance and pregnancies are a lottery. I know lots of folks who've still taken vacations that were pre-booked, almost as a 'last hurrah' before life changes forever.
I struggle carrying just my beer belly around in the Florida heat!

Funnily enough, that's how this trip is starting to feel although neither my wife and I are admitting it.

 

[Scott W.]

Ironically, probably the only safe place for pregnant women would be Death Valley, California.

I have to ask...why?

 

[Teebin]

I have to ask...why?

Because it is dry as a bone! Early settlers had an impossible task of traversing it... thus the DEATH. Ain't no skeeters there.

 

[Galaxy Defender]

The non Florida Sea World parks are doing OK. My estimate for the Florida ones is down 10-15%. Sea World has said Brazilians make up 10% of their attendance, so a 40% drop in them would mean a 4% drop in overall attendance. Most of the rest of the drop is Florida specific.

Six Flags did well last quarter, so it looks like the attendance decline is mainly in Florida. Insiders say UO was down early summer but has rebounded. Sea World was up 4% in July. This just leaves WDW.

Disneyland divorced WDW in large part to avoid their problems. WDW was already down 2% the previous quarter. Big question now is whether they have hit bottom and are coming back up or if this is part of a longer decline. With UO growing larger and better I can easily see the latter being true.

Of course, WDW could be a big opening or two away from growing again, but I doubt it. One big tell will be if WDW starts to sacrifice profits for attendance. Quarterly conference call is August 9th.

 

[Disneyhead]

The non Florida Sea World parks are doing OK. My estimate for the Florida ones is down 10-15%. Sea World has said Brazilians make up 10% of their attendance, so a 40% drop in them would mean a 4% drop in overall attendance. Most of the rest of the drop is Florida specific.

Six Flags did well last quarter, so it looks like the attendance decline is mainly in Florida. Insiders say UO was down early summer but has rebounded. Sea World was up 4% in July. This just leaves WDW.

Disneyland divorced WDW in large part to avoid their problems. WDW was already down 2% the previous quarter. Big question now is whether they have hit bottom and are coming back up or if this is part of a longer decline. With UO growing larger and better I can easily see the latter being true.

Of course, WDW could be a big opening or two away from growing again, but I doubt it. One big tell will be if WDW starts to sacrifice profits for attendance. Quarterly conference call is August 9th.

Before we declare WDW out of it. Let's see what happens this fall. Remember, a major function of WDW's price restructuring was to "encourage" traveling in the off season. And I'm hearing bookings are very strong this fall. WDW may have just shifted their peak season. So they could possibly end up with Summer crowds this fall with everyone paying less. So 6 months of Summer Hours and staffing. And 3 months of Summer prices. Probably not the goal they were looking for.

 

[Galaxy Defender]

Before we declare WDW out of it. Let's see what happens this fall. Remember, a major function of WDW's price restructuring was to "encourage" traveling in the off season. And I'm hearing bookings are very strong this fall. WDW may have just shifted their peak season. So they could possibly end up with Summer crowds with everyone paying less. Probably not the goal they were looking for.

WDW will never be out of it. They can always throw out some better hotel deals or more free dining to fill up the parks.