Effects of Coronavirus (COVID-19) On Entertainment & Tourism Industry

[erider]

Interesting to see that the biggest theme park in The Netherlands (Efteling) and Germany (Europa Park) are both opening this month (Efteling May 20th and Europa Park May 29th).

 

[Scott W.]

International Service - Orlando International Airport (MCO)

Orlando International's expanding international route network makes Orlando increasingly accessible from anywhere in the world.

orlandoairports.net

The dates MCO is expecting international travel to begin again.

 

[JungleSkip]

Shanghai Disneyland Reopening Tickets Sell Out Fast

Shanghai Disneyland sold out of tickets for its May 11 reopening after a four-month shutdown, a sign that consumers in China are prepared to spend as the nation recovers from the coronavirus pandemic.

www.bloomberg.com

I know Universal might be different but think a few of the Disney parks will be just fine after this

It’s the first day. I have no doubt the parks will all be this way for the first day. The question is what it will be like a month from then

 

[Jeepers Reaper]

International Service - Orlando International Airport (MCO)

Orlando International's expanding international route network makes Orlando increasingly accessible from anywhere in the world.

orlandoairports.net

The dates MCO is expecting international travel to begin again.

Interesting mix of dates for Europe, even the difference in the airlines approach from London. All could of course change.

But good news hopefully for your trip?

 

[Parkscope Joe]

It’s the first day. I have no doubt the parks will all be this way for the first day. The question is what it will be like a month from then

Exactly. I think this will weirdly mirror the Disneyland SWGE kerfuffle.

 

[JungleSkip]

Exactly. I think this will weirdly mirror the Disneyland SWGE kerfuffle.

It's important to realize Shanghai has a local population of *24 million* people, nearly double that of the LA metro area and *12x* that of the Orlando metro area. With a capacity cap of less than 240000 people in the park at one time, all it would take is .001% of the population to decide to go to Shanghai DL for it to sell out in a single day.

The big issue, long term, is that China's consumers have largely not come back from the pandemic.

China’s Businesses Are Reopening. Consumers Are Still Scarce.

The dearth of spending in China was so severe that several local governments and companies doled out coupons to citizens, which can be used at stores and restaurants. Upcoming data may indicate a rebound, but for now, residents are spending on necessities and little else.

www.barrons.com

 

[Mad Dog]

It's important to realize Shanghai has a local population of *24 million* people, nearly double that of the LA metro area and *12x* that of the Orlando metro area. With a capacity cap of less than 240000 people in the park at one time, all it would take is .001% of the population to decide to go to Shanghai DL for it to sell out in a single day.

The big issue, long term, is that China's consumers have largely not come back from the pandemic.

China’s Businesses Are Reopening. Consumers Are Still Scarce.

The dearth of spending in China was so severe that several local governments and companies doled out coupons to citizens, which can be used at stores and restaurants. Upcoming data may indicate a rebound, but for now, residents are spending on necessities and little else.

www.barrons.com

Exactly. And as I've said before, this comes at a bad time for China since they've been trying to convert their economy to a consumer driven economy since a lot of international company manufacturing is leaving the now higher labor cost China for cheaper labor cost areas in southeast Asia....and the other day I read a report of over 275,000 bankruptcies in China since the CV rampage began..China doesn't have a long history of consumer spending economy, so hopefully the Us may come back a little quicker. Americans like to buy. But the reality is that it'll probably be at a slow increase spread over many months, not a quick spurt when all the lockdowns end. It'll take a good while to get back to normal, economy wise.

 

[Scott W.]

Exactly. And as I've said before, this comes at a bad time for China since they've been trying to convert their economy to a consumer driven economy since a lot of international company manufacturing is leaving the now higher labor cost China for cheaper labor cost areas in southeast Asia.

The economical cost of the parks returning to normal is something that seems to always be overlooked.

Just because the parks are open and maybe even they’re completely safe again, a lot of people are going to be in financial trouble for a long time after this and a trip to Disney World is going to be on the bottom of the list of essentials.

 

[Mad Dog]

The economical cost of the parks returning to normal is something that seems to always be overlooked.

Just because the parks are open and maybe even they’re completely safe again, a lot of people are going to be in financial trouble for a long time after this and a trip to Disney World is going to be on the bottom of the list of essentials.

and the big spending foreign tourism will be almost nil until at least 2021.

 

[JungleSkip]

The economical cost of the parks returning to normal is something that seems to always be overlooked.

Just because the parks are open and maybe even they’re completely safe again, a lot of people are going to be in financial trouble for a long time after this and a trip to Disney World is going to be on the bottom of the list of essentials.

This quote from the article I posted was the most striking:

In the U.S., the travel sector will likely see an 81% revenue nosedive for April and May, according to Oxford Economics. “A $519 billion decline in travel spending in the U.S. this year will translate into a total economic loss of $1.2 trillion in economic output. This is more than nine times the impact of 9/11 on travel sector revenue,” it said.

That is honestly a terrifying number.

 

[Mad Dog]

This quote from the article I posted was the most striking:

In the U.S., the travel sector will likely see an 81% revenue nosedive for April and May, according to Oxford Economics. “A $519 billion decline in travel spending in the U.S. this year will translate into a total economic loss of $1.2 trillion in economic output. This is more than nine times the impact of 9/11 on travel sector revenue,” it said.

That is honestly a terrifying number.

and it'll probably be the slowest section of the entire US economy to rebound. It doesn't bode well for Orlando in 2020.

 

[JungleSkip]

and it'll probably be the slowest section of the entire US economy to rebound. It doesn't bode well for Orlando in 2020.

I still just hope Uni stays the course with EU. I'm having flashbacks to the original third park plans after 9/11

 

[Mad Dog]

I still just hope Uni stays the course with EU. I'm having flashbacks to the original third park plans after 9/11

Different owner though. Hopefully, fingers crossed, that makes it different. Their ownership group was pretty shaky back then.

 

[JungleSkip]

Different owner though. Hopefully, fingers crossed, that makes it different. Their ownership group was pretty shaky back then.

Yea, but Comcast shareholders have also only been around the parks during the best years they've ever had. I just hope they don't get too scared during the next 2 years

 

[JawsVictim]

So do we know with 100% certainty that Shanghai Disneyland can operate at a profit just by selling out the reduced capacity tickets?

 

[Jerroddragon]

So do we know with 100% certainty that Shanghai Disneyland can operate at a profit just by selling out the reduced capacity tickets?

I doubt anyone but Disney Truly knows....but my guess is at the very least it slows down how much money they would lose with some parks being open and also helps out there work force.

 

[Mad Dog]

Yea, but Comcast shareholders have also only been around the parks during the best years they've ever had. I just hope they don't get too scared during the next 2 years

Yes. The best thing working in our favor is that Comcast has been one of the few US corporations that generally place long term gains before short term quarterly results. Hoping the cable & broadband business stays healthy/positive enough that the new park expenditure is small potatoes in the big picture.

 

[shiekra38]

I still just hope Uni stays the course with EU. I'm having flashbacks to the original third park plans after 9/11

It's shockingly similar...The only difference is that IOA was already built

Contrary to what people say, IOA, and therefore Universal Orlando was the only park that saw an attendance bump after 9/11

It will be interesting to see where the tourism market heads in the next couple of years

I don't want to speculate, because Brian will yell at me, but many of the EU concepts could easily fit in the original parks...worst case scenario

 

[lowbudget]

This quote from the article I posted was the most striking:

In the U.S., the travel sector will likely see an 81% revenue nosedive for April and May, according to Oxford Economics. “A $519 billion decline in travel spending in the U.S. this year will translate into a total economic loss of $1.2 trillion in economic output. This is more than nine times the impact of 9/11 on travel sector revenue,” it said.

That is honestly a terrifying number.

Our local economy is largely tourism based. Hotel/Resort occupancy rates were down 41% in March. I expect those numbers to be around the 80% you quoted for April. May is looking better now that restrictions have been lifted. I know my personal properties are about 60% of normal so far for May, new bookings almost daily. I expect 75% or so for the remainder of the season if current trends continue.

 

[JungleSkip]

It's shockingly similar...The only difference is that IOA was already built

Contrary to what people say, IOA, and therefore Universal Orlando was the only park that saw an attendance bump after 9/11

It will be interesting to see where the tourism market heads in the next couple of years

I don't want to speculate, because Brian will yell at me, but many of the EU concepts could easily fit in the original parks...worst case scenario

I don't think EU will be canceled. Florida is putting to much money into the road work for it to be, IMO. But it'd be easy to cut a ride here or there, which would suck

Our local economy is largely tourism based. Hotel/Resort occupancy rates were down 41% in March. I expect those numbers to be around the 80% you quoted for April. May is looking better now that restrictions have been lifted. I know my personal properties are about 60% of normal so far for May, new bookings almost daily. I expect 75% or so for the remainder of the season if current trends continue.

Meaning you're not dependent on air travel. Places that are dependent on air travel aren't going to be at 75% for a long time.