Effects of Coronavirus (COVID-19) On Entertainment & Tourism Industry

[JungleSkip]

Surprising survey results on Touring Plans.com Blog. "Survey Suggests Quick Return of WDW Trips"....Touring Plans, while acknowledging their respondents are more hard core fans than the normal guest, says that they are hearing similar results from Travel Agents that they have spoken to. The data is suggesting that the 'out of state tourists' will be coming back in greater numbers than anticipated. It's a good read.....and the results are not what I was expecting. This will certainly be worth following.

Reading it, it doesn’t seem to be all that different than what we’ve been speculating here. The “will/have rebook crowd”, around 40%, said they’ll rebook this year. The “plan to rebook”, 42%, are looking at next year. 40% of a crowd returning this year is about all I ever expected

 

[Andysol]

and Disney just increased the Rewards Visa Card to 3% for supermarket purchases from now through June of 2021. 3%, up from 2%.....Let the discounting to entice visits began.

Note that many credit cards have offered extra incentives during this. Chase sapphire reserve is 3x grocery now, AMEX Platinum offering a monthly $20 streaming and $20 wireless credit. Green a $10 wireless credit and 3x dining. 12x grocery for some Hilton cards, etc. I know the citi prestige/premier are offering grocery categories now too.

So if you have any premium cards, definitely check to see if perks have changed.

When it comes to lawns being overgrown.. the shade of their own leaves begins to thin them out and the seed stems dry and remain like little bamboo rods... so when the do go to mow, it may look quite patchy for a while beyond.

That’s why I now 2x/week in the height of growing season (summer) and cut at the highest setting.

If that’s the first domino, international travel is officially done for the summer (not just “not recommended”).

Too much risk for me this year of the booking being cancelled again. I’m holding out all hopes for May 2021 (I really really hope normality has resumed by then)

I think your best hope is that May 2021 will be “normal”. Realize that odds for a vaccine to be created and distributed by then are very, very low.
And while a treatment is more likely by then, who knows where the treatment might be and who it will be for. The treatment might be only for those in ICU, for example.

 

[UAN17]

Off topic but there’s a number of different studies which, whilst not yet peer reviewed, suggest there’s potentially a very easy solution to part of this problem....good old Vitamin D. I’ve followed the benefits of the Vitamin for years, as it’s linked closely to MS, which my dad has. Strangely, governments (the UK anyway) are exceptionally reserved about an effective daily dosage, despite the weight of evidence of its multiple benefits in the immune response....suspiciously so (and I’m not a conspiracy theorist!)

 

[Alicia]

Off topic but there’s a number of different studies which, whilst not yet peer reviewed, suggest there’s potentially a very easy solution to part of this problem....good old Vitamin D. I’ve followed the benefits of the Vitamin for years, as it’s linked closely to MS, which my dad has. Strangely, governments (the UK anyway) are exceptionally reserved about an effective daily dosage, despite the weight of evidence of its multiple benefits in the immune response....suspiciously so (and I’m not a conspiracy theorist!)

This thread should be for entertainment related discussion as affected by the pandemic, and not topics like these...

But, as far as I know the study showed that mortalility rates in countries that have less vitamin D in their systems seemed to be affected. More studies need to be done. It doesn’t prevent you from getting it. It isn’t a cure for it. The study was not about that. (And countries like the US have vitamin D added in like everything we eat so generally none of us are deficient.)

quote:
"While I think it is important for people to know that vitamin D deficiency might play a role in mortality, we don't need to push vitamin D on everybody," said Northwestern's Vadim Backman, who led the research. "This needs further study, and I hope our work will stimulate interest in this area. The data also may illuminate the mechanism of mortality, which, if proven, could lead to new therapeutic targets."

Vitamin D levels appear to play role in COVID-19 mortality rates

Researchers analyzed patient data from 10 countries. The team found a correlation between low vitamin D levels and hyperactive immune systems. Vitamin D strengthens innate immunity and prevents overactive immune responses. The finding could explain several mysteries, including why children are...

www.sciencedaily.com

 

[Mad Dog]

Reading it, it doesn’t seem to be all that different than what we’ve been speculating here. The “will/have rebook crowd”, around 40%, said they’ll rebook this year. The “plan to rebook”, 42%, are looking at next year. 40% of a crowd returning this year is about all I ever expected

My surprise was that percentage of out of state tourists rebooking this year. Myself, I thought most everyone out of state, except the very southern ones, would wait until 2021. I always thought it would be lower than 40% for this year, and they'd have to depend on Florida residents. If that number holds up, that would be decent news for Disney. The parks could operate in the black if that many tourists added to the Florida residents, once they can up the park capacities to 50% .

 

[UAN17]

This thread should be for entertainment related discussion as affected by the pandemic, and not topics like these...

But, as far as I know the study showed that mortalility rates in countries that have less vitamin D in their systems seemed to be affected. More studies need to be done. It doesn’t prevent you from getting it. It isn’t a cure for it. The study was not about that. (And countries like the US have vitamin D added in like everything we eat so generally none of us are deficient.)

quote:
"While I think it is important for people to know that vitamin D deficiency might play a role in mortality, we don't need to push vitamin D on everybody," said Northwestern's Vadim Backman, who led the research. "This needs further study, and I hope our work will stimulate interest in this area. The data also may illuminate the mechanism of mortality, which, if proven, could lead to new therapeutic targets."

Vitamin D levels appear to play role in COVID-19 mortality rates

Researchers analyzed patient data from 10 countries. The team found a correlation between low vitamin D levels and hyperactive immune systems. Vitamin D strengthens innate immunity and prevents overactive immune responses. The finding could explain several mysteries, including why children are...

www.sciencedaily.com

Agreed regarding staying on topic, so my final post on this in here, but you mention 1 study. I now know of atleast 4 different studies across a number of different countries. The weight of evidence appears to be growing.

 

[JungleSkip]

My surprise was that percentage of out of state tourists rebooking this year. Myself, I thought most everyone out of state, except the very southern ones, would wait until 2021. I always thought it would be lower than 40% for this year, and they'd have to depend on Florida residents. If that number holds up, that would be decent news for Disney. The parks could operate in the black if that many tourists added to the Florida residents, once they can up the park capacities to 50% .

I think it’s also smart to keep in mind touring plans guests aren’t the run of the mill. I expect Orlando parks to be at 30-40% of their normal visitation the rest of the year, and probably a good portion of next year.
Especially if international tourists aren’t showing up.

 

[Jerroddragon]

I think mid-June/Early July sounds about right for Orlando. I think LA is a bit more complicated and they may not open until late in the summer (like September potentially).

I can see that, like I said its a guess from the way things seem to be going. Whats funny is while the Florida parks are going to open first most likely the CA parks will be doing a little bit better because they are less to manage and have a good number of locals that will support them.
I think it will be hard for especially Disney to fill 4 theme parks at 50 percent at WDW with the limited amount of flying going on. Maybe DCA wont always get filled but if Spiderman opens a little after the park does then that may be what gets people in their.

While it would be hard, maybe this is the year Disneyland finally overtakes the Florida parks with guests.

 

[Scott W.]

Coronavirus: Virgin Atlantic puts advisers on standby as industry teeters

A&M has been appointed to prepare for a potential insolvency at Sir Richard Branson's flagship airline, Sky News learns.

news.sky.com

 

[Mad Dog]

I think it’s also smart to keep in mind touring plans guests aren’t the run of the mill. I expect Orlando parks to be at 30-40% of their normal visitation the rest of the year, and probably a good portion of next year.
Especially if international tourists aren’t showing up.

Yes. That's why I mentioned Touring Plans acknowledged that their members are more hard core than normal. But they did add that they are hearing the same from travel agents they've spoken too....I agree with your assessment on the numbers. But, if that survey holds up, combined with a possible large turnout from Florida residents, the numbers could be higher.

 

[SeventyOne]

Yes. That's why I mentioned Touring Plans acknowledged that their members are more hard core than normal. But they did add that they are hearing the same from travel agents they've spoken too....I agree with your assessment on the numbers. But, if that survey holds up, combined with a possible large turnout from Florida residents, the numbers could be higher.

The danger here is assuming COVID is the only driving factor, ignoring the economy. Yeah, based on crowds around town, the general public seems more willing to go out -- call it inevitable, call it foolhardy, the traffic speaks for itself. But people are flush with stimulus checks and, in some cases, enhanced Unemployment. And we're just starting to see the economic dominoes start to fall (Sweet Tomatoes Thursday, J Crew yesterday, JC Penney today ...). What percentage of that 42% who want to rebook for Fall will change their mind come July when they find themselves laid off?

 

[Mad Dog]

The danger here is assuming COVID is the only driving factor, ignoring the economy. Yeah, based on crowds around town, the general public seems more willing to go out -- call it inevitable, call it foolhardy, the traffic speaks for itself. But people are flush with stimulus checks and, in some cases, enhanced Unemployment. And we're just starting to see the economic dominoes start to fall (Sweet Tomatoes Thursday, J Crew yesterday, JC Penney today ...). What percentage of that 42% who want to rebook for Fall will change their mind come July when they find themselves laid off?

Good points all....By the way, with the heat/humidity down there, what kind of percentages of people are wearing masks? Indoor/?outdoors?....Just a guess fro your observations. ....That probably might determine whether they'll wear them in a park,, or if a requirement in the parks would keep them from attending.

 

[SeventyOne]

Good points all....By the way, with the heat/humidity down there, what kind of percentages of people are wearing masks? Indoor/?outdoors?....Just a guess fro your observations. ....That probably might determine whether they'll wear them in a park,, or if a requirement in the parks would keep them from attending.

It really varies. The sidewalk along Universal Blvd (lot of joggers, lot of dog walkers), hardly anyone. Indoors, ranges from a majority (Publix) to a vast majority (Target for whatever reason) to hardly any (re-opened restaurants, staff excluded). Sidewalk probably only place even roughly comparable to a full day in a theme park for what that's worth.

I think I mentioned I walked around the open-air outlet mall Monday for maybe 30 minutes, humid 80s but not quite 90s, and it became unpleasant very quickly. Glasses/sunglasses completely unusable. I can see the requirement lasting a couple weeks in Springs, but just don't see a park requirement lasting long at all. And that's not taking into account the inevitable ADA challenges.

 

[Scott W.]

With opening day expected to be crowded with vloggers, is there any chance that Universal, Disney and SeaWorld would come to agreement to open on the same day to help thin out the herd?

 

[UniversalRBLX]

With opening day expected to be crowded with vloggers, is there any chance that Universal, Disney and SeaWorld would come to agreement to open on the same day to help thin out the herd?

No need if a reservation system is in place.

 

[Mad Dog]

It really varies. The sidewalk along Universal Blvd (lot of joggers, lot of dog walkers), hardly anyone. Indoors, ranges from a majority (Publix) to a vast majority (Target for whatever reason) to hardly any (re-opened restaurants, staff excluded). Sidewalk probably only place even roughly comparable to a full day in a theme park for what that's worth.

I think I mentioned I walked around the open-air outlet mall Monday for maybe 30 minutes, humid 80s but not quite 90s, and it became unpleasant very quickly. Glasses/sunglasses completely unusable. I can see the requirement lasting a couple weeks in Springs, but just don't see a park requirement lasting long at all. And that's not taking into account the inevitable ADA challenges.

Thanks....That's kind of the scenario I was expecting to happen. Come June & higher temps & humidity, probably even less mask wearing.

 

[Scott W.]

This is showing the new procedures in place for Shanghai and for a video constantly referencing social distancing, they're not practising social distancing.

 

[Mad Dog]

This is showing the new procedures in place for Shanghai and for a video constantly referencing social distancing, they're not practising social distancing.

Irony....Just like the disease experts and the officials ordering lock downs, that preached social distancing/stay at home, but got caught not doing it themselves.....We already saw video last month of the throngs of thousands of Chinese tourists at national tourist sites shoulder to shoulder touching, and a good number without face masks, in a society that actually has a history of wearing face masks in public. ...And this is China.....I imagine Florida, there might initially be some wearing face masks and practicing real social distancing when the parks open. Then, after a couple weeks, they'll lag, and less will be doing it. And after a month of opening it will be even less than that. Reality is that people, after a while, get used to a crisis, and then slack off the protections.

 

[Scott W.]

Irony....Just like the disease experts and the officials ordering lock downs, that preached social distancing/stay at home, but got caught not doing it themselves.....We already saw video last month of the throngs of thousands of Chinese tourists at national tourist sites shoulder to shoulder touching, and a good number without face masks, in a society that actually has a history of wearing face masks in public. ...And this is China.....I imagine Florida, there might initially be some wearing face masks and practicing real social distancing when the parks open. Then, after a couple weeks, they'll lag, and less will be doing it. And after a month of opening it will be even less than that. Reality is that people, after a while, get used to a crisis, and then slack off the protections.

First day after reopening

Second day

 

[PerceptiveCoot]

Irony....Just like the disease experts and the officials ordering lock downs, that preached social distancing/stay at home, but got caught not doing it themselves....

I audibly cringed when he put his finger in his ear.