"fun little projects" as you called them are fine, but that's all they are. Little projects. The little projects are fine as an appetizer, but you gotta have an entree and they don't have anything besides Halo that's even worth taking a look at right now. Also, most of their exclusives end up on PC anyway.
They lost this upcoming generation by losing all momentum they had built up through the 360 era and wasting it by botching the Xbox One launch. Now more Xbox users have adopted PS then would have otherwise and it's just not as enticing of a product anymore. I want to play where my friends are at and overwhelmingly they're on Playstation now. That didn't used to be the case.
Here's the thing though, Microsoft is not at the angle as of right now of going to town on consoles and console exclusives.
XCloud and what they've done with XBOX Game Pass, comes to mind really quick. They're pushing XBOX to become a "brand", of where they can have technological hardware like consoles, but to also enrichen and grow their PC and streaming abilities. And at the end of the day--I'd absolutely pick a PS5. But I would also pick Game Pass Ultimate--so I can play XBOX games on the cloud.