Effects of Coronavirus (COVID-19) On Entertainment & Tourism Industry

[Nick]

Not showing anything loses more money, though.

By Wall Street standards, sure.

But Studios have a backlog of films to show right now and many are too high budgeted to justify moving to streaming as of now.

Bill & Ted 3, New Mutants, Candyman, A Quiet Place 2, etc? Yeah, I can see all of those types Moving to VOD. I can see West Side Story being a Disney+ release if we’re without theaters then.

But the DCEU, MCU, Bond, Tenet, Dune, and maybe even Mulan keep getting pushed off.

 

[JungleSkip]

Someone is going to try and release a bigger movie on VOD before this is all said and done.

 

[Nick]

Someone is going to try and release a bigger movie on VOD before this is all said and done.

I think it will probably be Mulan. I keep hearing the Plan B is to send it to VOD and then Disney+.

 

[Scott W.]

I think it will probably be Mulan. I keep hearing the Plan B is to send it to VOD and then Disney+.

New Mutants seems plagued to be released on VOD.

 

[Nick]

New Mutants seems plagued to be released on VOD.

I fully expect it to be a VOD, but it was a fairly low budget movie ($50M, I believe). I think VOD will really hit a turning point once the first $100M (movie is released on it. Mulan was over $200M so that’s why I classify it as a blockbuster type.

 

[Casper Gutman]

Someone is going to try and release a bigger movie on VOD before this is all said and done.

I thought that too. But I’m becoming increasingly certain that it would have happened by now if it was going to. The Summer movie season is basically over and it seems like that - and the absolute height of the lockdowns - would have been the time to do it.

Honestly, a lot of companies seem obsessed with the notion that this will all be over in a couple days and they shouldn’t do anything much to adapt.

 

[Nick]

I thought that too. But I’m becoming increasingly certain that it would have happened by now if it was going to. The Summer movie season is basically over and it seems like that - and the absolute height of the lockdowns - would have been the time to do it.

Honestly, a lot of companies seem obsessed with the notion that this will all be over in a couple days and they shouldn’t do anything much to adapt.

The problem is when you invest so heavily into a film, these studios are greatly worried about the unknowns of PVOD with a big tentpole film. And they're also worried about not making anywhere near what they would have in the theaters because a $25 rental is a steal for more than 2 people. But also, when you charge so much, it turns off the person who is a solo watcher because it's a steep price for a rental, about the price of a Blu-Ray.

Someone will try it eventually simply because the backlog of films studios will have will be too much for them to continue hoarding.

 

[Casper Gutman]

The problem is when you invest so heavily into a film, these studios are greatly worried about the unknowns of PVOD with a big tentpole film. And they're also worried about not making anywhere near what they would have in the theaters because a $25 rental is a steal for more than 2 people. But also, when you charge so much, it turns off the person who is a solo watcher because it's a steep price for a rental, about the price of a Blu-Ray.

Someone will try it eventually simply because the backlog of films studios will have will be too much for them to continue hoarding.

I would actually expect the first toe in the water to be a horror title. The studios have a big backlog, they don’t cost much so the risk is minimal, and October is coming up. Candyman would get a ton of press, for instance.

But as regards blockbusters, production has also halted, so they are wary of burning too many tent poles they may need before they can ramp production up.

 

[Nick]

I would actually expect the first toe in the water to be a horror title. The studios have a big backlog, they don’t cost much so the risk is minimal, and October is coming up. Candyman would get a ton of press, for instance.

But as regards blockbusters, production has also halted, so they are wary of burning too many tent poles they may need before they can ramp production up.

I think both Candyman and A Quiet Place 2 go to PVOD.

 

[Magic Feather]

An interesting note:
Orange County cases are starting to skew older again, which makes me glad that its not affecting the majority of TM's and CM's, but it also makes me worried that we might see a death rate spike.

Agree. With how successful Trolls and Hamilton seem to be doing for streaming, I'd expect some more releases this go around.

Hamilton made a big pop, but still ultimately lost Quite a bit of money. It mostly just served to bring in new Disney+ subs.

By Wall Street standards, sure.

But Studios have a backlog of films to show right now and many are too high budgeted to justify moving to streaming as of now.

Bill & Ted 3, New Mutants, Candyman, A Quiet Place 2, etc? Yeah, I can see all of those types Moving to VOD. I can see West Side Story being a Disney+ release if we’re without theaters then.

But the DCEU, MCU, Bond, Tenet, Dune, and maybe even Mulan keep getting pushed off.

Right now, major companies are all evaluating films to see which ones would have taken a loss anyway, or could have some type of value on streaming or PVoD.

Trolls and Hamilton were the only success stories to come out of this, and their “success” was either by a narrow margin (Trolls) or was only a success in proving the continued popularity and viability of the franchise.

LMM and friends, not Disney, are the ones that pushed for the filmed version to not come out until late 2021. They are also the people that signed off on it getting moved up since Broadway was murdered by this virus, so there was no worry.

Disney didn’t just pay for the filmed play ($12 mil, IIRC), they payed for the film rights too, which is why the filmed play was okay to kind of be written off, plus it gave Disney+ an even bigger base than it already had AND proved that Hamilton was still relevant.

It will be interesting to see what films come out in an alternate format and which films are held for once theaters reopen. The majority will wait for theaters to fully reopen.

Finally, I am interested to see, for instance with something like New Mutants, if they will just release it into the open theaters right now (there are already a decent number, even the Cinemark at UOR is open), and let it get as much as it can out of the limited theaters.

 

[PerceptiveCoot]

I think both Candyman and A Quiet Place 2 go to PVOD.

Don't forget about Antebellum. It currently shares a release date with Mulan.

I'm sort of two minds about the PVOD tentpole debate. Yes you're losing money from a theatrical release, but if you heavily advertised a movie before the shutdown, and then you're trying to get people excited for that movie again a year out, do you get as much business as you normally would had you stuck to the initial release date. I mean look at New Mutants. That first trailer got everyone excited, but the movie was delayed to the point that it has devolved into a meme and most public interest seems to have died down. The second issue is that tent poles, as suggested by their name, need a wide audience to succeed. And even in a best case scenario where theaters are allowed to open, only die hard cinema fans who value the theatrical experience will make it out to a cinema, whereas the audience on PVOD, though smaller, will still encompass more people within the current climate.

I doubt any tentpoles will get PVOD releases though, even Mulan which I would gladly pay for based on what I've heard. But for the rest of the year, it's likely smaller fare, horror, and animated films.

So if 2020 is a complete wash for theatrical that means: David Copperfield, The Green Knight (which looks rad as hell) Antebellum, Bill and Ted, New Mutants, Quiet Place, Candyman, Connected, Croods 2, Coming 2 America, and awards fare of Respect, The Last Duel, and News of the World. Fox movies I'm not too sure, but maybe Disney releases The French Dispatch on Disney+ with some other Wes Anderson movies (like Hamilton they seem to tread the line between family-friendly and adult).

 

[ThemeParks4Life]

I think both Candyman and A Quiet Place 2 go to PVOD.

I don't think either will go to VOD. Paramount and Universal have gotten rid of most of their 2020 slate but kept those two around because they can turn easy profits theatrically (particularly AQP which was tracking for a 65M opening prior to the pandemic). Honestly, I think The Conjuring 3 will be the big horror movie to release on VOD. The franchise has already peaked at the box office, and without James Wan's creative vision, it's likely to be middling at best. Releasing that onto VOD and making 70-80M would be better than releasing it theatrically to a 150-200M worldwide total.

 

[Ridgepole]

My brother has a cabin in the Montana wilderness, it's looking pretty good about now.

YOU would most likely be welcome here. Just quarantine Florida out of your system for 14 days

 

[Nick]

Finally, I am interested to see, for instance with something like New Mutants, if they will just release it into the open theaters right now (there are already a decent number, even the Cinemark at UOR is open), and let it get as much as it can out of the limited theaters.

I am firmly in the camp that Studios are going about this all wrong. I think they should be looking at doing something like you're saying and release the movies that may otherwise struggle now while there's nothing and let them make money the old-fashioned way by doing it over the course of months rather than the first two weeks.

Movies also don't have to open wide everywhere all at once. Open where you can and then continue to roll out when more theaters open.

So if 2020 is a complete wash for theatrical that means: David Copperfield, The Green Knight (which looks rad as hell) Antebellum, Bill and Ted, New Mutants, Quiet Place, Candyman, Connected, Croods 2, Coming 2 America, and awards fare of Respect, The Last Duel, and News of the World. Fox movies I'm not too sure, but maybe Disney releases The French Dispatch on Disney+ with some other Wes Anderson movies (like Hamilton they seem to tread the line between family-friendly and adult).

I also think West Side Story could go either PVOD or to Disney+.

 

[quinnmac000]

I also think West Side Story could go either PVOD or to Disney+.

That's the fastest way to get Spielberg never to work with Disney again.

 

[Nick]

That's the fastest way to get Spielberg never to work with Disney again.

Other than Indiana Jones - and he's not even directing anymore - when do they ever work with Spielberg? He's directed one film for Disney and three films for Fox. He primarily works with Universal or Paramount.

Disney won't want to move West Side Story back until next Christmas as Avatar already basically has that. In The Heights has the summer. I'm not quite sure where you put this movie where it would be worth it rather than recouping costs on PVOD and still being eligible for the Oscars due to the rules this year.

Times are unprecedented and he may have to suck it up. All directors want their movies in theaters, sometimes it doesn't happen because of a pandemic.

 

[Mad Dog]

In the 50's, 60's, early 70's they usually did do the exclusive road shows for the bigger releases. Generally just a theater or two would run the same film for about 3 months ,6 months, or longer, if it did well. Heck, I remember
Dr. Strangelove had an exclusive run at the King's Court in the Oakland (Univ. of Pgh.) section of Pgh. for almost a year. Imagine how boring it would be to be a theater usher. Later, King's Court was one of the first theaters to do the cult classic Rocky Horror, and they proceeded to run that on weekends for a decade or two, or more (lost count) college crowd fans and all....................It's a good time for some innovation.

 

[Andysol]

If all of this comes to pass, have we discussed what the Oscars could be like? What exceptions they’d make and how terrible of a selection there will likely be?

 

[TheGentTrent]

I am firmly in the camp that Studios are going about this all wrong. I think they should be looking at doing something like you're saying and release the movies that may otherwise struggle now while there's nothing and let them make money the old-fashioned way by doing it over the course of months rather than the first two weeks.

Movies also don't have to open wide everywhere all at once. Open where you can and then continue to roll out when more theaters open.

I think the big fear is that spoilers would run rampant in the age of the internet.

 

[OLSinFLA]

But why not say she did to avoid the whole unsafe workplace?

I'm not even sure what you're asking here? The only way to avoid it would be to quit.