Effects of Coronavirus (COVID-19) On Entertainment & Tourism Industry

[Grabnar]

I honestly think they're going to push it as long as they can to drive up demand for something, anything, new and then release a mid-level movie to test the waters. Anything that they lose on it will get written off in taxes.

Edit: Calling it, Death on the Nile drops PVOD for Christmas.

 

[RevFreako]

Wonder Woman needs to bring in $500M to break even. You aren’t gonna get that on demand.

I don't think breaking even is a reasonable expectation, especially for what's essentially an experiment.

 

[JungleSkip]

Wonder Woman needs to bring in $500M to break even. You aren’t gonna get that on demand.

I still think your insistence that numbers like this are impossible on VOD is weird in a world it’s never been attempted

 

[RevFreako]

I still think your insistence that numbers like this are impossible on VOD is weird in a world it’s never been attempted

As a thought experiment, twebty bucksna throw at fufty percent profit means 50 million downloads to break even. that's a pretty high bar.

 

[Nick]

I still think your insistence that numbers like this are impossible on VOD is weird in a world it’s never been attempted

My point is $500M is breaking even. They want to make money and make $800-$1B. Maybe it works, but I don’t see how the economics work out when we aren’t talking about individual tickets, we’re talking about a $25 flat fee and as many people as you can put in a room can watch it.

With that being the case and until it changes, I will continue to say VOD is not nearly as viable option as theaters.

 

[JungleSkip]

As a thought experiment, twebty bucksna throw at fufty percent profit means 50 million downloads to break even. that's a pretty high bar.

VOD is closer to 80% profit, but yea. Not saying it’s a slam dunk, but the idea that it’s impossible just doesn’t jive IMO

My point is $500M is breaking even. They want to make money and make $800-$1B. Maybe it works, but I don’t see how the economics work out when we aren’t talking about individual tickets, we’re talking about a $25 flat fee and as many people as you can put in a room can watch it.

With that being the case, I will continue to say VOD is not nearly as viable option as theaters.

How many people are putting huge amounts of people in one room during COVID?

 

[Grabnar]

My point is $500M is breaking even. They want to make money and make $800-$1B. Maybe it works, but I don’t see how the economics work out when we aren’t talking about individual tickets, we’re talking about a $25 flat fee and as many people as you can put in a room can watch it.

With that being the case, I will continue to say VOD is not nearly as viable option as theaters.

Think this will kill the blockbuster model? Movies have been getting increasingly expensive and the economics have been shakier and shakier even before covid. All of the low to mid budget movies were getting shunted to streaming anyway, it seems like a natural progression for dual releases of "not a theatre" movies to just be the norm from now on.

 

[OhHaiInternet95]

Think this will kill the blockbuster model? Movies have been getting increasingly expensive and the economics have been shakier and shakier even before covid. All of the low to mid budget movies were getting shunted to streaming anyway, it seems like a natural progression for dual releases of "not a theatre" movies to just be the norm from now on.

Might not be a bad thing, as previously mentioned. Lower budget = more creativity.

 

[Nick]

VOD is closer to 80% profit, but yea. Not saying it’s a slam dunk, but the idea that it’s impossible just doesn’t jive IMO


How many people are putting huge amounts of people in one room during COVID?

Some people have pretty big families. My cousin has a wife, 5 kids, a brother-in-law and mother-in-law that all live in the same house.

A trip to the movies for that kind of a group (and they go normally) is around $100. This is a bargain for them and a loss from what they would’ve made in ticket sales.

And quite frankly, for the sole movie goer, $25-$30 is too much money, so they’ll likely only watch with friends.

Think this will kill the blockbuster model? Movies have been getting increasingly expensive and the economics have been shakier and shakier even before covid. All of the low to mid budget movies were getting shunted to streaming anyway, it seems like a natural progression for dual releases of "not a theatre" movies to just be the norm from now on.

If movie theaters don’t return, budgets for movies will go drastically down.

 

[PerceptiveCoot]

Jurassic World Dominion got pushed back a year.

I don't really understand the logic behind this. It didn't seem to be competing against anything in that timeframe and other movies are still coming out in June. Unless Universal believes that theaters still won't be back to normal in June, in which case shouldn't we be seeing movies like Ghostbusters, Raya, Black Widow, and F9 move even further back?

Or maybe they just don't have time to finish everything?

 

[Tristan]

Jurassic World Dominion got pushed back a year.

 

[rageofthegods]

Jurassic World Dominion got pushed back a year.

I don't really understand the logic behind this. It didn't seem to be competing against anything in that timeframe and other movies are still coming out in June. Unless Universal believes that theaters still won't be back to normal in June, in which case shouldn't we be seeing movies like Ghostbusters, Raya, Black Widow, and F9 move even further back?

Or maybe they just don't have time to finish everything?

According to THR, it wasn't just a matter of filming, but also a matter of making sure merchandise, theme parks, and live event tie-ins that were meant to coincide with its release were ready/viable when it was released.

 

[Jerroddragon]

Jurassic World Dominion got pushed back a year.

I don't really understand the logic behind this. It didn't seem to be competing against anything in that timeframe and other movies are still coming out in June. Unless Universal believes that theaters still won't be back to normal in June, in which case shouldn't we be seeing movies like Ghostbusters, Raya, Black Widow, and F9 move even further back?

Or maybe they just don't have time to finish everything?

Someone else said it but yeah on this one seems like Tie in's

They had a huge T rex in front on the AMC at Universal Hollywood when the last film came out and would not be surprised if the Jurassic ride would get a small update for when the film comes out....which would make sense why some of the ride has so much area to add things I guess

 

[Disneyhead]

Sooner or later they are gonna have to start pumping out product on/in whatever platform is available. Former release models are dead. Brave New World.

I have been to the cinema several times since reopening. I would be happy to go see new product. I go on Tuesday when Cinemark has their $5 tix. I go early when no one is there. And I have a good time. I would really like new product to see. They can keep the tent poles until After-COVID, but I would love to see current art films that would never get a multiplex screen be an option.

 

[Nick]

Sooner or later they are gonna have to start pumping out product on/in whatever platform is available. Former release models are dead. Brave New World.

I have been to the cinema several times since reopening. I would be happy to go see new product. I go on Tuesday when Cinemark has their $5 tix. I go early when no one is there. And I have a good time. I would really like new product to see. They can keep the tent poles until After-COVID, but I would love to see current art films that would never get a multiplex screen be an option.

The key for PVOD success in terms of a bigger movie is it being a more mid-range budget tentpole movie that would get people excited. If i'm being honest, I think Free Guy would make an absolutely EXCELLENT PVOD choice for Disney. It looks like a fun time for all ages (sort of like Jumanji in a way) and the budget wasn't overly obnoxious. And if we're being blunt, Disney didn't pay for the movie, so they probably care less.

 

[JungleSkip]

shouldn't we be seeing movies like Ghostbusters, Raya, Black Widow, and F9 move even further back?

Give it a minute

 

[ThemeParks4Life]

April is the earliest I expect major chains to re-open. The release schedule will be playing a yearlong game of musical chairs.

 

[RevFreako]

April is the earliest I expect major chains to re-open. The release schedule will be playing a yearlong game of musical chairs.

April without a vaccine is wishful thinking, I believe.

 

[ThemeParks4Life]

April without a vaccine is wishful thinking, I believe.

I think a vaccine will be out by then; distribution is the major question mark. If a vaccine receives limited distribution by the end of this year, my guess is 15-20% of Americans will be vaccinated by April. By the end of summer, almost everyone who wants to be vaccinated will probably have done so considering ~30% of the country will not take the vaccine. It'll be a weird summer at the box office, but after no summer movie season this year, lower returns are better than nothing.

 

[RevFreako]

I think a vaccine will be out by then; distribution is the major question mark. If a vaccine receives limited distribution by the end of this year, my guess is 15-20% of Americans will be vaccinated by April. By the end of summer, almost everyone who wants to be vaccinated will probably have done so considering ~30% of the country will not take the vaccine. It'll be a weird summer at the box office, but after no summer movie season this year, lower returns are better than nothing.

I hope you're right.